This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 5-9 last week and lost both games where I went against my own lines and took the teams I wanted (Packers, Steelers.) Of the four picks I liked best, three of them failed to cover. For whatever reason, I stayed away from the Bucs as one of my favorites even though my line and the Vegas one differed by three at the time of publication and five by kickoff. Moral of the story - trust my lines, and have the discipline to stick to them.
This week seemed like an easy one. Judging by the disparity between my lines and Vegas', I particularly like the Browns, 49ers, Vikings, Cowboys, Browns and Seahawks. Let's call the Vikings and Seahawks best bets.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Saints +3.5 at Panthers
I have a Panthers feeling just like I did last week against the Chiefs, and I typically prefer the home team on Thursday nights. But I made this line three as these are roughly equal teams, so I'm taking the Saints.
Saints 27 - 24
EARLY GAMES
Titans +3 at Colts
I have a Colts feeling here, but I think the Titans are a slightly better team - on both sides of the ball. I fear Andrew Luck a bit at home, but I made this line two, and the full three is enough for me. Back Tennessee.
Colts 24 - 23
Jaguars +6.5 at Lions
This is exactly where I set the line, so I could go either way. I suppose
I went 5-9 last week and lost both games where I went against my own lines and took the teams I wanted (Packers, Steelers.) Of the four picks I liked best, three of them failed to cover. For whatever reason, I stayed away from the Bucs as one of my favorites even though my line and the Vegas one differed by three at the time of publication and five by kickoff. Moral of the story - trust my lines, and have the discipline to stick to them.
This week seemed like an easy one. Judging by the disparity between my lines and Vegas', I particularly like the Browns, 49ers, Vikings, Cowboys, Browns and Seahawks. Let's call the Vikings and Seahawks best bets.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Saints +3.5 at Panthers
I have a Panthers feeling just like I did last week against the Chiefs, and I typically prefer the home team on Thursday nights. But I made this line three as these are roughly equal teams, so I'm taking the Saints.
Saints 27 - 24
EARLY GAMES
Titans +3 at Colts
I have a Colts feeling here, but I think the Titans are a slightly better team - on both sides of the ball. I fear Andrew Luck a bit at home, but I made this line two, and the full three is enough for me. Back Tennessee.
Colts 24 - 23
Jaguars +6.5 at Lions
This is exactly where I set the line, so I could go either way. I suppose I'll take Jacksonville who will never at any point have a chance to win the game, but will squeak out the backdoor cover.
Lions 30 - 24
Buccaneers +7.5 at Chiefs
I set this line at 8.5 - I could see the Chiefs defense living in the Bucs backfield, while Kansas City will somehow smoke-and-mirrors their way to an offensive score or two. I'm laying the wood.
Chiefs 27 - 16
Bears +7.5 at Giants
I made this line seven. The Giants could easily blow them out, but they never seem to blow out anyone. Ben McAdoo is probably thrilled his run game finally worked in the fourth quarter last week, so he'll overuse it again to little avail. Take the points.
Giants 23 - 20
Cardinals pick 'em at Vikings
I had this line at three - what reason do we have to think the Cardinals are better than the Vikings on a neutral field? Arizona barely escaped with a home win against the Niners last week. Take the Vikings at home.
Vikings 20 - 17
Bills +3 at Bengals
These are equal teams, and I had this line at three as well. Total coin flip for me, but I guess I'll take the points.
Bengals 23 - 21
Ravens +7 at Cowboys
I'm definitely the square here as I had this line at 10.5! The Ravens are okay, but the Cowboys are one of the top-three teams in the league. Lay the wood.
Cowboys 27 - 17
Steelers -8.5 at Browns
I had this line at only 6.5 - the Steelers have played poorly on the road, Ben Roethlisberger's home/road splits have been pronounced for the last three seasons, and the Steelers defense is only mediocre. Take the Browns.
Steelers 27 - 23
LATE GAMES
Dolphins -1.5 at Rams
This is exactly where I set the line too. I was hoping the real line would be minus three so I could take the Rams at home, but the switch to Jared Goff apparently didn't move the needle that much. This is a coin flip, but give me the home dog.
Rams 17 - 13
Patriots -13 at 49ers
This is an absurdly huge line - it implies 19 in New England. I had it at 10.5, so I have to take the 49ers, who showed up in Arizona last week.
Patriots 27 - 16
Eagles +6.5 at Seahawks
With Russell Wilson healthy again, the Seahawks are arguably the league's best team. Accordingly, I set this line at 7.5 - this is a tough ask for Carson Wentz on the road. Lay the wood.
Seahawks 34 - 10
SUNDAY NIGHT
Packers +2.5 at Redskins
The Packers sure get a lot of respect from oddsmakers - why aren't they getting the full three here on the road against the Redskins. Take Washington.
Redskins 26 - 23
MONDAY NIGHT (MEXICO CITY)
Texans +5.5 vs. Raiders
Brock Osweiler got 3.7 YPA against the Jaguars last week, so I made the Raiders 6.5-point favorites before realizing the game was on a neutral field in Mexico City. That means, based on my number, the line should be about 3.5, and at 5.5 I should take the Texans. I'm not happy about it, but I'm staying disciplined. Back Houston.
Raiders 21 - 17
I went 5-9 in Week 10 to go 69-75-3 on the season. I'm 0-2 on best bets. I went 114-134-8 and 7-9-3 on best bets in 2015. From 1999-2015, I've gone 2,182-2,014 (52%), not including ties.
