This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I was reasonably satisfied with last week's picks - they were more or less how I meant to pick them - even the Broncos, Giants and Bucs who were on the wrong side of blowouts. By conventional scoring, I went 7-5-1, won my best bet, the Colts, but went 2-3 in the SuperContest.
This week, the games came to me pretty quickly and easily. I particularly like the Redskins and Bills. I feel most uncomfortable with the Bears (brain says take them, gut says fade) and the Dolphins-Panthers which was a coin flip.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Seahawks -5.5 at Cardinals
After a war against the Redskins, I don't love the Seahawks laying this many points off the short week on the road. Take the points.
Seahawks 20 - 17
EARLY GAMES
Vikings -1.5 at Redskins
The Vikings are good, but I think this is a 50/50 game with Case Keenum likely to struggle against an improved Redskins defense on the road. Take the home dog.
Redskins 20 - 19
Packers +5 at Bears
The Bears can't throw the ball, either, but this isn't enough points. Chicago has the better running game, better defense and is playing at home. Lay the wood.
Bears 24 - 17
Steelers -10 at Colts
I love the Steelers this year, but they play a grind-it-out style like the Saints, so this is a ton of points on the road against a team that's at least trying. Take the home dog.
Steelers 23 - 17
Chargers +4
I was reasonably satisfied with last week's picks - they were more or less how I meant to pick them - even the Broncos, Giants and Bucs who were on the wrong side of blowouts. By conventional scoring, I went 7-5-1, won my best bet, the Colts, but went 2-3 in the SuperContest.
This week, the games came to me pretty quickly and easily. I particularly like the Redskins and Bills. I feel most uncomfortable with the Bears (brain says take them, gut says fade) and the Dolphins-Panthers which was a coin flip.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Seahawks -5.5 at Cardinals
After a war against the Redskins, I don't love the Seahawks laying this many points off the short week on the road. Take the points.
Seahawks 20 - 17
EARLY GAMES
Vikings -1.5 at Redskins
The Vikings are good, but I think this is a 50/50 game with Case Keenum likely to struggle against an improved Redskins defense on the road. Take the home dog.
Redskins 20 - 19
Packers +5 at Bears
The Bears can't throw the ball, either, but this isn't enough points. Chicago has the better running game, better defense and is playing at home. Lay the wood.
Bears 24 - 17
Steelers -10 at Colts
I love the Steelers this year, but they play a grind-it-out style like the Saints, so this is a ton of points on the road against a team that's at least trying. Take the home dog.
Steelers 23 - 17
Chargers +4 at Jaguars
This line looks low, given how the Jaguars have played on defense, but I'll take the points. The Jaguars offense isn't good, either, and I think San Diego stays in it.
Chargers 17 - 16
Jets -2.5 at Buccaneers
There's been talk the Bucs have quit, but if I've heard it, they've heard it, and I'm pretty sure NFL players don't want to forfeit future earnings by justifying that reputation. Plus a healthy Ryan Fitzpatrick is a major upgrade over an injured Jameis Winston. Take the points.
Buccaneers 27 - 24
Bengals +5 at Titans
Both teams are disappointing, especially the Bengals who can hardly muster anything on offense, due in large part to a terrible offensive line. But I think they move the ball against a below-average Tennessee defense and keep it close at least. Take Cincy.
Bengals 23 - 20
Saints -2.5 at Bills
The Saints are playing a new brand of ball and are legitimately good at it. But the Bills are so much tougher at home, and I don't like laying the wood there with a dome team there in November. Take the points.
Bills 24 - 20
Browns +12.5 at Lions
The Browns are horrifyingly bad, but the Lions shouldn't be laying this kind of wood against anyone, particularly after a big, rare Monday night win at Lambeau Field. Take the points.
Lions 27 - 19
LATE GAMES
Texans +12 at Rams
The Texans quarterback play is positively uncivilized, but this is a huge number, even for the Rams whose offense has been great, especially against weak defenses. I suppose I'll hold my nose and take the points.
Rams 24 - 13
Cowboys +3 at Falcons
At the time I write this, I don't know whether Ezekiel Elliott will play, though I suspect his odds are better than many believe. Either way, there's something wrong with the Falcons this year, and I'll take the points.
Cowboys 26 - 23
Giants -1 at 49ers
It's amazing this version of the Giants is laying points on the road, but it's more about their opponent than them. As long as C.J. Beathard is starting, I suppose I'll take the Giants who have merely a below-average QB and not arguably the third worst one in the league (Tom Savage, Brock Osweiler.)
Giants 23 - 19
SUNDAY NIGHT
Patriots -7.5 at Broncos
The Patriots' offense isn't that great - too much dink and dunk passing, not enough consistent rhythm. And their defense has improved, but it's average at best. This is too many points on the road against what I suspect will rise to the occasion and show itself to be an elite defense. This is assuming fewer than two turnovers from Brock Osweiler which admittedly might be optimistic. Take the points.
Patriots 20 - 17
MONDAY NIGHT
Dolphins +9 at Panthers
The Panthers defense seems to be legitimately good, and that could be a problem for Jay Cutler. But Cam Newton has been so erratic, and I'm not sure Carolina should be laying this many points. Take the Dolphins who keep it close enough.
Panthers 23 - 17
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I went 7-5-1 against the spread in Week 9 to put me at 65-62-5 on the season. I went 2-3 on LVH SuperContest picks to go 22-22-1 overall there. I was 123-128-5 during the 2017 season. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.
