Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 10

I went 5-7-1 last week, and if anything I probably got lucky, with a gift backdoor push by the Rams. This week, I used my usual method of picking the spread first and comparing it to the Vegas lines, but switched a couple games where the discrepancy was minute. If I had a team at two, and Vegas has it at 2.5, that's such a negligible difference of opinion, I'll just pick whichever one I prefer. If it were 2.5 to 3 (key number), or a larger margin, I'll stick with the method, but there's no reason to abide by the letter of the law when the line is going to move anyway, and the discrepancy isn't reflective of anything material.

This week I like the Falcons, Chargers, Steelers and Seahawks best.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Browns +10 at Ravens

I made this 10.5, in part because of the short week which seems to advantage the home team. And of course because the Browns are bad and starting a rookie QB on the road against a decent defense. Lay the wood.

Ravens 24 - 13

EARLY GAMES

Texans -1.5 at Jaguars

This is exactly where I set the line too. The Jaguars offense was a little better last week under new offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the Texans offense is bad in its own right. I could go either way, but I'll take the home dog. Back Jacksonville.

Jaguars 20 - 19

Chiefs +3 at Panthers

I had this line at two - I know the Panthers are better than their record, but the Chiefs have to be considered slightly better on a neutral field, and the full field goal seemed like too much. Back Kansas City.

Panthers 24 - 23

Broncos +2 at Saints

I set this line at 2.5, so it's splitting hairs, but I'll take the Saints at home against Trevor Siemian laying less than the full three.

Saints 23 - 20

Rams +2 at Jets

Just like the Broncos-Saints, I had this line at 2.5, and Vegas had it at two. I'll hold my nose and take the Jets, though this is a coin flip.

Jets 20 - 17

Falcons pick 'em at Eagles

This is where I pegged the line too, as the Falcons are better, but the Eagles are at home. I'll take Atlanta as Matt Ryan has faced down even tougher defenses on the road (Seattle and Denver) and played exceptionally well.

Falcons 28 - 27

Vikings +3 at Redskins

I set this line at three, and it is in fact three. After going 18-3 against the spread over a 21-game span, the Vikings are 0-3 since. I include this as a curiosity as trends in ATS picking are almost always meaningless. I take the Redskins who have enough skill and diversity offensively to overcome Minnesota's defense.

Redskins 23 - 17

Packers -2.5 at Titans

I set this line at 1.5, so I suppose I should be on the Titans. They were actually playing well against the Chargers before two defensive TDs did them in, and the Packers looked terrible against the Colts. That said, I'm going the other way here, in spite of myself, as the difference between 1.5 and 2.5 is negligible. Back Green Bay who bounces back against a beatable defense.

Packers 27 - 24

Bears pick 'em at Buccaneers

I had this line at three - these seem like roughly equal teams to me, so I was surprised to see Tampa available as a pick 'em at home. Back the Bucs.

Buccaneers 27 - 24

LATE GAMES

Dolphins +3.5 at Chargers

I had this line at six. The Chargers are actually good now that Joey Bosa has become a defensive star, and Melvin Gordon is running like the first-round back they drafted last year. Lay the wood.

Chargers 31 - 20

49ers +13.5 at Cardinals

This is exactly where I had the line, and I was hoping the Vegas one would be lower because I want to lay the wood. So I'm going to anyway. Back Arizona who rolls.

Cardinals 34 - 17

Cowboys +2.5 at Steelers

This is the third game I had at two and Vegas had at 2.5. Normally, that means I'd have to take the underdog, but it's so close, I'll actually lay the points with the Steelers who are so much better at home. Back Pittsburgh.

Steelers 30 - 24

SUNDAY NIGHT

Seahawks +7.5 at Patriots

The Patriots are far and away the best team in the league, but Russell Wilson looked healthy last week, and that's good enough for me. I had this line at only six, so I especially like Seattle at 7.5.

Patriots 27 -23

MONDAY NIGHT

Bengals +2.5 at Giants

I had this line at three as these are roughly equal teams in my opinion, and with Cincy getting only 2.5 I'm laying the wood.

Giants 26 - 23

I went 5-7-1 in Week 9 to go 64-66-3 on the season. I'm 0-2 on best bets. I went 114-134-8 and 7-9-3 on best bets in 2015. From 1999-2015, I've gone 2,182-2,014 (52%), not including ties.