Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 1

Hard to believe, but it's actually the 21st year for this column. Put differently, when I started, I was 28, and now I'm 48. It's not quite Vin Scully who started calling games in 1949 (when he was 22) and stopped in 2016 (when he was 89), but for the internet era, it has to be one of the longer-running weekly pieces.

Last year was my first good one in a while. I went 141-106 (.571), something I attribute in part to creating my own lines before even looking at the market-based ones, and of course I'll continue doing that this year too. For more background into how I've fared over the years and why I overhauled my process, you can read the article I wrote for this year's NFL magazine.   

As usual, I'll make a best bet each week for Staff Picks, and will post that and my Super Contest picks in the comment section below. 
 

For the podcast version of the article — usually up on Thursday morning, click here.

As for Week 1, I especially like the Eagles, Colts and Cardinals.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Packers +3 at Bears

The Bears were better last year, but Aaron Rodgers was playing hurt, and Mike McCarthy was the head coach. These are bitter rivals, the commute between them is short (hence the home field is worth less) and there's no travel tax for the Thursday game after nine months off. Take the points.

Packers 23 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Falcons +4 at Vikings

I made this line three — two polished veteran dome teams that should be relatively sharp out of the gate. The Falcons are better offensively, the Vikings better on defense. I'm assuming Atlanta irons out its differences with Julio Jones, though. Take the points.

Vikings 24 - 23

Redskins +9.5 at Eagles

I made this line nine initially, then on a second pass bumped it all the way to 13.5, before looking at the actual number. The Eagles have Carson Wentz fully healthy and now two years removed from his ACL tear, while the Redskins are rolling with Case Keenum and a motley bunch of pass catchers. Take the points. Lay the points. 

Eagles 27 - 13

Bills +3 at Jets

I made the line three, and it is three, so I could go either way here. I hate the Jets, but think they have slightly more upside than the Bills. Lay the wood.

Jets 20 - 16

Ravens -7 at Dolphins

I made the line seven, and it is seven, so again this is a coin flip. On the one hand, playing in Miami in September is tough, given the heat and humidity, but on the other, the Ravens style of play is brutal, and it's the Dolphins who will be chasing around the speedy, mobile quarterback. Take the Ravens. 

Ravens 23 - 10

Chiefs -4 at Jaguars

The Jaguars defense was once great, but that was two years ago, an eternity in the NFL. But QB Nick Foles and OC John DeFilippo might be monumental upgrades over Blake Bortles and Nathaniel Hackett, respectively. In short, I expect the Chiefs offense to put up a big number, but the Jaguars at least have a chance to keep pace. I'd probably take the over (50) if I were betting totals, and I'll lay the wood with the Chiefs.

Chiefs 31 - 24

Titans +5.5 at Browns

There's a lot of hype around the Browns with Odell Beckham in the fold and Freddie Kitchens running the show, and usually that's something to fade, especially against a tough, ugly squad like the Titans who tend to be undervalued. But the line is only 5.5, and I made it 6.5, drawing the line at a full TD. As such, I'm taking the Browns.

Browns 26 - 19

Rams -3 at Panthers

I made this line 2.5, as the Panthers are good and at home, and there's often a Super Bowl hangover for the losing team. Maybe that's too anecdotal, but it makes sense — a lingering memory of disappointment on the biggest stage for eight months is something only one team in the league deals with every year. Give me the Panthers. 

Panthers 26 - 24

LATE GAMES

Bengals +9.5 at Seahawks

I made this line exactly 9.5, so I could go either way. The Seahawks are typically tough at home, but I imagine that's priced into the line. Honestly, it's a coin flip, but because self-hating Bengals fan Jeff Erickson had the Bengals according to his numbers, but wanted to switch to the Seahawks after he saw the line, I'll take the points.

Seahawks 24 - 17

Colts +6.5 at Chargers

I wish this line were seven, but I'll stick with the Colts as the market over-corrects for Andrew Luck's retirement. Frank Reich's system is good, the line is excellent, and Jacoby Brissett isn't a stiff. Take the points.

Colts 24 - 23

49ers pick'em at Buccaneers

I made this line a pick, and it is one. I'll go with the 49ers on a hunch as the market might be over-correcting for a bad preseason, and Kyle Shanahan is a better coach than Bruce Arians in my opinion.

49ers 27 - 24

Lions -2.5 at Cardinals

The Cardinals are awfully thin at cornerback, have a bad offensive line, a rookie QB and a rookie NFL head coach. But the Lions laying points on the road is a bridge too far. Take the Cardinals.

Lions 21 - 20

Giants +7 at Cowboys

Maybe I'm a homer, but I think the Giants are underrated this year. The offensive line is good, and they have the most physically gifted all-purpose back in NFL history. Saquon Barkley and Pat Shurmur's short-passing offense should help keep the below average defense fresh in a game of long drives and not many possessions. Take the points.

Cowboys 24 - 20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Steelers +5.5 at Patriots

I made this line 6.5, but it's moved down to 5.5. so I'm on the Patriots, a team on which no one has gone broke betting the last 20 years.

Patriots 27 - 20

MONDAY NIGHT

Texans +7 at Saints

I made this line 6.5 too — essentially, I drew the line at a TD for a lot of these games, and the Texans should hang in a game where both offenses will move the ball. Take the points.

Saints 26 - 24

Broncos pick 'em at Raiders

I made this line three, as I see these as roughly equal teams. The Broncos have the better defense, but Joe Flacco is bottom of the barrel, while Jon Gruden's offense should be closer to league average. Take the home team.

Raiders 23 - 20

For the podcast version of the article - usually up on Thursday morning, click here.