This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 0-3-1 last week, losing my best bet (Ravens), so my playoff handicapping got off to a less-than-ideal start.
This week, I feel better about the Saturday games than I do the Sunday ones, and I'm fairly sure my best bet will be the Chiefs who seem underpriced to me at less than seven.
For the podcast version of this article, click here
SATURDAY GAMES
Colts +5.5 at Chiefs
The Colts are on a nice roll, and you have to be encouraged by their coaching, QB play and offensive line. But their resume strikes me as a little thin, their best wins being at home against the Cowboys after the Cowboys had more or less locked up the NFC East by beating the Eagles in overtime and last week in Houston. Going into Arrowhead against a well-rested and prepared offensive juggarnaut is a degree of difficulty they haven't yet faced. The Chiefs defense isn't good, but Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce might be the three most dangerous players at their respective posiitons. I don't think the Colts keep up in that venue and under these conditions. Lay the wood.
Chiefs 34 - 23
Cowboys +7 at Rams
Maybe a rested Rams squad with a presumably healthy Todd Gurley and Aqib Talib will revert to their early-season form and crush the Cowboys, but Los Angeles has not been that team the last 10 weeks. The Cowboys are good in all phases now that Amari Cooper has opened
I went 0-3-1 last week, losing my best bet (Ravens), so my playoff handicapping got off to a less-than-ideal start.
This week, I feel better about the Saturday games than I do the Sunday ones, and I'm fairly sure my best bet will be the Chiefs who seem underpriced to me at less than seven.
For the podcast version of this article, click here
SATURDAY GAMES
Colts +5.5 at Chiefs
The Colts are on a nice roll, and you have to be encouraged by their coaching, QB play and offensive line. But their resume strikes me as a little thin, their best wins being at home against the Cowboys after the Cowboys had more or less locked up the NFC East by beating the Eagles in overtime and last week in Houston. Going into Arrowhead against a well-rested and prepared offensive juggarnaut is a degree of difficulty they haven't yet faced. The Chiefs defense isn't good, but Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce might be the three most dangerous players at their respective posiitons. I don't think the Colts keep up in that venue and under these conditions. Lay the wood.
Chiefs 34 - 23
Cowboys +7 at Rams
Maybe a rested Rams squad with a presumably healthy Todd Gurley and Aqib Talib will revert to their early-season form and crush the Cowboys, but Los Angeles has not been that team the last 10 weeks. The Cowboys are good in all phases now that Amari Cooper has opened up the passing game, and Dak Prescott has involved Michael Gallup and Zeke Elliott as pass catchers too. Their defense is also stout and able to get to opposing passers, and Elliott is a modern-day Emmitt Smith, always chugging ahead for positive yardage and tough to bring down. I made this line 4.5, and as such I'm happy to take the seven. Back the Cowboys.
Rams 27 - 23
SUNDAY GAMES
Chargers +4 at Patriots
While this might be the toughest game on the eyes, it's the most interesting from a handicapping standpoint. Unless Rob Gronkowski miraculously returns to form, the Chargers are better on both sides of the ball. Their pass rush is better, their secondary is as good, and their passing game and running game are both better. Even their kick returner made it to the Pro Bowl and played a big role in their win over the Ravens. But the Patriots had two weeks to prepare, weather (projected to be between 18 and 27 degrees) could be an issue, and the Chargers had to travel from LA to New England one week after traveling from LA to Baltimore for another early body-clock game. All the numbers favor the Chargers, but the entire setup favors the Patriots, including their coach, their experience in big games and their massive home-field advantage. That said I made this line three and will take Los Angeles. One factor I underestimated last week was how their non-existent home-field advantage put them at less of a disadvantage on the road relative to their baseline performance. Put differently, if two teams are equal overall, but one is much better at home, the other is necessarily much better on the road. The Patriots still retain their major home field advantage, of course, but in this case, it is not combined with an opponent's road disadvantage, effectively cutting the edge in half. I wouldn't be surprised if we see the Chargers "C" game, coaxed out of them by weather, astute game-planning, travel and the early game time. But if we get even the "B" version, the Chargers will cover and possibly win outright. Take the points.
Patriots 24 - 23
Eagles +8 at Saints
I made this line 7.5, so this was close for me. I could see the Saints rolling at home, especially with field-stretcher Ted Ginn back against a vulnerable Eagles secondary. And all of Drew Brees' subpar play of late came during a stretch of three straight road games. That said, the Eagles are a different team than the one that got destroyed by the Saints earlier this season, the biggest difference being an offense that takes shots down the field and is therefore much tougher to defend. Nick Foles was able to function effectively in Chicago, and as solid as the Saints defense is at home, I expect him to be up to the task Sunday. Take the points.
Saints 27 - 20
For the podcast version of this article, click here
Last week, I went 0-3-1 in the Wild Card Round. I was 141-106-9 on the regular season and 48-36-1 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2018, I've gone 2,686-2,501 (51.8%), not including ties.
