Beating the Book: Bengals Roll, Cowboys Survive + Full Wild Card Weekend Picks and Predictions

Welcome to the Wild Card Weekend edition of Beating the Book.

We finished out the regular season with a strong week, hitting 11 of 16 games against the spread. It may be too little too late when it comes to clawing back to .500, but nonetheless we have at least a modicum of momentum heading into the postseason.

We're blessed with a six-game, Wild Card Weekend slate which kicks off with two games Saturday. We follow up with three stand-alone games Sunday before the Cowboys and Buccaneers finish things up on Monday night. As of Thursday, only one game features a double-digit spread – Buffalo -13.0 vs. Miami – though Seahawks-49ers (-9.5) has been teetering on the edge all week. 

Meanwhile, three games currently sit at a spread of 3.0 points or lower, including the Saturday night showdown between the Chargers and Jaguars. The line in that game varies by the book, but it's settled at Chargers -2.5 at BetMGM – a notable jump after holding at 1.0 earlier this week. Also at BetMGM, Dallas is a 2.5-point road favorite at Tampa Bay, while the Vikings are a 3.0-point home favorite over the Giants in a rematch of their Week 16 showdown.

Before we fully dive in on the Wild Card Weekend slate, let's take our customary look back at the best and worst calls from my Week 18 picks.

Last week: 11-5 ATS; 11-5 straight up; best bet won (Vikings -7.5 at Bears)

On the season: 126-138-7 ATS; 174-95-2 straight up; 7-11 best bets

Best calls of Week 18: 

• While I won't pick against the Jags at Keenan McCardell Stadium, I'll take the Titans to make it uncomfortable throughout.
• Improved as the Ravens' defense may be, I'll side with the team that hasn't scored 13, 17, 3, 16 and 10 points over its last five games. Give me the Bengals to win and cover.
• With a potential playoff spot – plus Mike Tomlin's non-losing season streak – on the line, I'm not betting against Pittsburgh.

Worst calls of Week 18:

• These big numbers have been a thorn in our side all season, but with so much on the line, I can't help but side with Philadelphia to cover two touchdowns.
• In the end, both teams want to lose this game, but a loss would mean considerably more to the Texans – especially with the Bears waving the white flag and starting Nathan Peterman. With that in mind, I'll take the Colts to cover at home and put a bow on a thoroughly bizarre 2022 season.

As has been the case all season, we'll go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. My best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

All odds this week via BetMGM, as of Thursday at Noon ET. If you don't have a BetMGM account yet, you can use this BetMGM bonus code for a generous welcome bonus.

Saturday Games

Seattle Seahawks (+9.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Right off the bat I'll say I'm surprised this number has dipped under 10.0, but we'll take it. I know these are familiar opponents squaring off for the third time this season, but Seattle is limping its way into the playoffs and needed overtime a week ago to vanquish the Baker Mayfield Rams. Meanwhile, the 49ers have been the most dominant team in football over the second half of the season and haven't lost a game straight up since Oct. 23. 

While the 49ers battled through some key injuries during that second-half run, they're mostly healthy at this point and were able to get Deebo Samuel a healthy number of reps in Week 18 against Arizona. The biggest question mark, of course, is that San Francisco is starting a rookie seventh-round quarterback in a playoff game. But since taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo, Brock Purdy hasn't given us much reason to question his mettle. It's also worth noting that this will be Geno Smith's first career postseason start.

As the postseason wears on, the 49ers will be forced to rely more on Purdy's arm, but in this matchup, against one of the league's most vulnerable run defenses, San Francisco should be able to ride its top-ranked ground game to a double-digit win.

The pick: 49ers 31 – Seahawks 21

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Regular readers of this column have had the opportunity to track my emotions through what's been a roller coaster of a season for my beloved Jags. At no point during their five-game skid from Weeks 4 through 8 did I ever consider the possibility that they'd be in contention for a playoff spot – let alone have a chance to win the division.

Update:

Last week's win over the Titans accomplished just that, and while the Jags deserve credit for finding a way to eke out a victory, it was a relatively alarming offensive performance. For one, the Titans controlled the clock throughout the first half, limiting Jacksonville to just three total drives. One of those was a 3-and-out, while another ended in a careless fumble on a wildly unnecessary trick play.

For the most part, Tennessee's defense has had its way with the Jags over the years – especially their running game. On paper, this should be a much better matchup for Travis Etienne and Co. going up against the 32nd-ranked run defense in yards per attempt. Jacksonville's passing game is much improved, but it will need to be able to create chunk plays on the ground to keep up with the Chargers' air attack.

Ultimately, I think we get a really close game that's probably decided by which coach commits the fewest play calling errors. These teams have three combined playoff appearances since 2009, and both Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert will be making their postseason debuts, so experience isn't really a factor whatsoever. 

Even on the road, I lean slightly in favor of the Chargers – especially if Mike Williams is healthy and effective. If Williams sit outs or isn't himself, that changes things. But as of now, I'll ride with the Chargers to win and pull off a narrow cover.

The pick: Chargers 27 – Jaguars 24

Sunday Games

Miami Dolphins (+13.0) at Buffalo Bills

This line was as low as 9.0 earlier in the week but has been holding steady at 13.0 after the Dolphins officially closed the book on the possibility of Tua Tagovailoa playing. There's still a chance Teddy Bridgewater could suit up, but he's dealing with both a finger and a knee injury and remained limited at Wednesday's session. At this juncture, all indications are that it will once again be Skylar Thompson's show.

To make matters worse for Miami, Terron Armstead is banged up, Jeff Wilson missed practice Wednesday and Raheem Mostert is unlikely to play due to a "severe break" in his thumb. At full strength, Miami has played Buffalo about as well as anyone this season, but this is a completely different team without a healthy Tua. Maybe Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are able to generate a few splash plays to keep the Dolphins afloat, but it's hard to imagine Miami sticking around for four quarters.

On the year, Buffalo is 2-3 ATS as a favorite of 10.0 or more, so we do need to proceed with some level of caution. But playing at home against a team with so many key injuries pushes me in favor of the Bills – even at a less-than-ideal number. At times, Buffalo has a tendency to play with its food in games like this, but as the Bills demonstrated last week – they trailed New England midway through the third quarter – they're capable of flipping the switch and piling up points in a hurry.

Give me the Bills to win and cover.

The pick: Bills 33 – Dolphins 17

New York Giants (+3.0) at Minnesota Vikings

Both this game and Cowboys-Buccaneers feel like a matchup between two teams I don't really believe in. But unless the NFL does something completely unprecedented, either the Giants or the Vikings are going to win this game and advance to the Divisional Round. 

Obviously, this is a rematch of their Week 16 showdown – also in Minneapolis – which the Vikings won in extremely Vikings fashion. Had it not been for a blocked punt late in the fourth quarter, Minnesota may have finally come out on the wrong end of a one-score game. The Vikings were out-gained (445 to 353) and out-yards-per-played by New York (6.7 to 5.0), while Daniel Jones accounted for 368 of those 445 total yards.

By now, we all know the point differential stats when it comes to Minnesota. No one is conflating the Vikings with a true Super Bowl contender. But at some point they deserve some credit for continually finding ways to win close games. It's rarely convincing, but they have it down to a science.

If this game was at Metlife, I would be on the other side. But I think the Vikings find a way to get the job done at home before serving as a sacrificial lamb for the 49ers in Round 2. Minnesota wins straight up but Giants cover the 3.0.

The pick: Vikings 27 – Giants 26

Baltimore Ravens (+8.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

After opening at Bengals -6.5, this line slowly crept all the way up to 9.5, before settling at 8.5, thanks in large part to the Ravens all but confirming that Lamar Jackson will not be available. Technically, Jackson hasn't been ruled out, but he did not practice Thursday and doesn't appear to have made much progress over last few weeks.

The (relatively) good news for Batlimore is that Tyler Huntley, who missed the regular season finale, was on the practice field Thursday. Huntley hasn't inspired a ton of confidence as the fill-in for Jackson, but it's looking as though the Ravens won't have to resort to third-stringer Anthony Brown for another spot start. 

If Baltimore has any hope of hanging around in this game, it's going to have to be the defense that leads the way. After a disastrous start to the year on that side of the ball, the Ravens have steadily improved and climbed all the way up to fifth in weighted defensive DVOA. It likely won't be a field day for the Bengals, who managed just 257 total yards against Baltimore in Week 18, but if Cincy can score in the mid-to-high-20s, it's hard to imagine the Tyler Huntley-Sammy Watkins-Demarcus Robinson three-headed monster keeping up.

If this number creeps into the double-digits, I would consider backing Baltimore. But at 8.5, I still lean toward Cincinnati at home.

The pick: Bengals 27 – Ravens 17

Monday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Cowboys as road favorites in the playoffs? Under a ton of pressure? After ending the season with five straight underwhelming performances? What could possibly go wrong?

The answer: Plenty. Plenty could go wrong. As you may have heard, Tom Brady has never lost to the Cowboys. He's a perfect 7-0 in his career, including a Week 1 victory this season. But even after Dak Prescott fired off 11 picks in his final seven games, and the Cowboys sputtered into the playoffs following an embarrassing effort against Washington, I find myself leaning toward Dallas.

Betting against Tom Brady as a postseason underdog typically doesn't pay well, but I've been a staunch the Bucs are simply not good guy all season, and I can't back off of that now. Do we really believe the Bucs magically, at long last, solved their offensive issues in Week 17 against Carolina? Mike Evans hauling in a few deep balls against two of the worst corners in the league isn't enough for me.

Make no mistake: this Cowboys team is vulnerable and could absolutely get tripped up – envisioning the narrative is almost too easy. But as long as Prescott avoids a complete meltdown game, I don't trust Tampa Bay to keep up against one of the NFL's best pass defenses.

Prior to last week, the Cowboys hadn't put up fewer than 27 points since Week 7. Meanwhile, the Bucs got to 30 against Carolina but have just one other game this season in which they've scored more than 23 points (41-31 loss to KC in Week 4). In that Panthers win, the Bucs had touchdowns of 30, 57 and 63 yards on top of forcing six fumbles (two recovered) and an interception.

Again, the possibility of a complete meltdown by Dallas is very much on the table. But I think the Cowboys make it through this game and save the disappointment for Round 2. 

The pick: Cowboys 24 – Buccaneers 20