Beating the Book: ATS Picks + Score Predictions for Every NFL Week 8 Game

Welcome to the Week 8 edition of Beating the Book.

Week 7 was another profitable week for us, though we're still smarting a bit about our decision to not only take the Jets in Pittsburgh but to also make it our best bet. I'd love to say I've learned from it and will be swearing off the Jets going forward… but they do face the Pats this week, so we'll have to see about that.

On balance, it was another banner week for the public, which is starting to earn back some of the losses from the first few weeks of the season. The five most-bet sides at DraftKings all came through, while big underdogs (5.5+ points) went just 1-4 ATS. Over the last two weeks, dogs of at least 5.5 points are now 2-7-1 ATS after beginning the year on a torrid, 19-5-2 run.

It was also another big week for road favorites, which are now 12-0 SU/ATS over the last two weeks of action.

Looking ahead to Week 8, we have easily our most-lopsided board of the season, littered with big numbers. As of publication, we have one double-digit favorite (Detroit), while seven more teams are favored by at least 5.5 points.

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Week 6 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 7:

Ravens -3.5 at Buccaneers: Tampa got off to a hot start, but the Ravens proved to be borderline-unstoppable against one of the league's shakiest defenses, putting up 9.4 YPP – the highest number of the season for any team.

Jaguars -5.5 vs. Patriots: Jacksonville made us sweat this a bit after falling behind 10-0, but for as bad as the Jags may be, the Patriots are on a different level.

Worst calls of Week 7:

Jets -1.5 at Steelers: Maybe my worst pick of the year, and that's saying a lot. Early on, the game went to script, but the Jets' defense is a disaster, and the offense completely fell apart after Aaron Rodgers' crushing pick before halftime.

Dolphins +3.5 at Colts: We walked right into the the Dolphins will be better off of a bye trap. The Dolphins were not, in fact, any better, though two big fumbles had a major impact on the cover.

Last week: 10-5 ATS; 12-3 SU; best bet lost (Jets -1.5)

On the season: 53-51-3 ATS; 68-39 SU; 2-2-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Vikings -2.5

Total: 48.0

Fun game to kick off the week, especially with Cooper Kupp back in the mix for LA. Minnesota is coming off of its first loss of the season, but I don't necessarily hold that against the Vikings. The Lions may be the most complete team in the NFL, and they proved that the loss of Aidan Hutchinson won't detail their season. If anything, I feel just as good, if not better, about Minnesota coming out of Week 7.

I will say, even with Kupp back, I'm surprised this line isn't a bit higher. The Rams' offense was far from impressive last week against a bad Raiders team and ultimately needed three turnovers to win a one-score game. The return of Kupp obviously changes things, but this is a really tough spot against Minnesota's top-three defense. I like the Vikings to bring pressure and take advantage of what's still one of the shakiest offensive line units in the NFL.

For what it's worth, the Rams apparently see the writing on the wall for this season already:

The pick: Vikings 28 – Rams 23

Sunday Early Slate

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Ravens -9.5

Total: 44.5

After getting off to a shaky start, the Ravens eventually exerted their will on Tampa Bay on Monday night, piling up a ridiculous 9.4 yards per play en route to a 41-point night. Early on, the Bucs did a good job of slowing down Derrick Henry, but it's nearly impossible to hold him down for an entire game, and Henry was ultimately able to get loose late in the game to account for 169 of the Ravens' 244 total rushing yards on the night.

While I still have questions about the Ravens' defense, which benefited greatly from a pair of Baker Mayfield picks, this offense is a complete wagon right now. Meanwhile, the Browns' offense is… whatever the opposite of wagon is. Once again, Cleveland failed to reach 20 points last week and will now go forward without Deshaun Watson.

Out of sheer curiosity, I looked up the record for most consecutive games with 18 or fewer points to begin a season. A few notes:

• The Browns are the first team since the 2009 then-Redskins to score 18 or fewer in their first seven games
• Since 2000, the 2004 then-Redskins – quarterbacked by Patrick Ramsey and Mark Brunell – are the only other team to do it 
• The 2009 Redskins ran their streak up to eight games before going off for 27 points in their ninth game of the season
• The 2004 Redskins did not score more than 18 points until their 12th game of the season. They somehow managed to win six games that year.

There's a strong case to be made that a quarterback change was necessary, and now the Browns will have no choice but to move on from Watson. They'll now turn to Jameis Winston, who led a late touchdown drive after coming on in relief -- and from the inactive list -- against Cincinnati.

There's no doubt that Winston should provide a spark to the Browns' struggling offense. The question is, will that spark be enough to hang with what may be the best team in the NFL? I think it might be. We'll take the Browns to hit 20 points for the first time this season and pull out a backdoor cover. 

The pick: Ravens 28 – Browns 20

Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -10.5

Total: 45.5

Another big number, and rightfully so. The Titans jumped out to a two-score lead over the Bills last week and promptly scored zero points the rest of the way while allowing Buffalo to rip off 34 unanswered. Tennessee is still a reasonable defensive team, especially against the run, but this offense is among the most toothless in football. On the season, Tennessee is down to 4.3 yards per play – ahead of only the Browns (4.0). 

Getting Will Levis back this week could give the Titans more upside, but Levis, of course, introduces a tremendous amount of negative variance, as well.

Coming off of a big game against Minnesota, this could be a letdown spot for Detroit. But I think the Lions are such a solid team in all phases that it's difficult to imagine them falling flat. Even if they start slowly like Buffalo did, the Lions can only be held down for so long. It's worth noting that Detroit will not have Jameson Williams, but the emergence of Tim Patrick as a dependable option over the last few weeks should help offset that.

The pick: Lions 33 – Titans 17

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Spread: Texans -5.5

Total: 46.5

One of our five in-division matchups this week takes us to Houston, where the Texans will look to bounce back after a narrow loss (but a cover!) in Green Bay last week. Despite winning the turnover battle 3-0, and scoring 16 points off of those turnovers, Houston couldn't muster enough offensively to hold on. Joe Mixon was able to top 100 yards and find the endzone twice, but credit to the Green Bay defense for holding C.J. Stroud under 100 yards passing. Houston averaged just 3.4 YPP (and 2.2 yards per pass) – by far its lowest figures of the season.

The absence of Nico Collins certainly matters, especially as Houston has struggled to get Tank Dell involved. Coming off of an electric rookie season, Dell has just 20 catches for 194 yards on the year, and he took a complete zero (no catches on four targets) in Week 7.

Going up against a mistake-prone quarterback in Anthony Richardson, and one of the NFL's worst pass defenses, this should be a get-right spot for Houston. If Mixon can gash the Colts' defense like he did in Week 1 (30 carries, 159 yards), the Texans can ride the ground game to a home win.

However, the Colts have a knack for finding ways to play close games. All seven of their games have been decided by one score, and they're a league-best 6-1 ATS, including a loss/cover against Houston in Week 1. This will be the first time all season that a Colts game holds a spread of more than 3.5 points either way.

If Jonathan Taylor is back in the mix, I like the Colts to move to 7-1 ATS. But if Taylor misses another game, Houston can win by touchdown.

The pick: Texans 26 – Colts 23 (if Taylor plays)

Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Packers -4.0

Total: 48.5

The Packers are very lucky to be sitting at 5-2 after committing a slew of errors last week and still finding a way to win on a walk-off field goal. Jordan Love threw two bad picks and Green Bay committed some egregious special teams errors to nearly offset an incredible defensive effort.

While Green Bay failed to force a turnover for the first time this season – the Packers had at least two forced turnovers in each of their first six games – the defense clamped down on C.J. Stroud and forced four consecutive Texans punts to begin the second half. Green Bay's offense sputtered for much of the game – due in part to poor field position – but it's been a long time since the Packers have had a defense capable of stringing together stops at that level. Rashan Gary played easily his best game of the season, and the Packers were able to get after Stroud after struggling to generate consistent pressure over the last few weeks.

 Meanwhile, the Jags took care of business in London against what may be the worst team in the NFL. After a shaky start, the Jags took control in the second quarter and were essentially able to run out the clock in the second half. At one point, the Jags ran the ball on 17 consecutive plays. 

While Doug Pederson may have staved off an international firing, beating the Patriots doesn't really make me feel any better about this team. The Jags have enough talent to beat the really bad teams, but this is still an extremely shaky pass defense and a team that simply cannot be trusted against quality opponents.

Getting Tyson Campbell and (maybe) Foye Oluokun back should help that defense, but I love this spot for Green Bay. This line could easily be a couple points higher, and I'd comfortably take the Packers, who have advantages at just about every position group right now. I like this as a bounceback spot for Love against the NFL's 32nd-ranked pass defense, and it should be a good spot for the Packers' defense to flip the turnover switch back on.

The pick: Packers 38 – Jaguars 24

Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins -3.0

Total: 46.0

At long last, this may be the week you can comfortably put Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle back into your fantasy lineups. That assumes, of course, that Tua Tagovailoa will return to action. The Dolphins opened his practice window this week, and the general expectation is that Tua will push to make his first appearance since Week 2. Interestingly, Tua will not be donning a guardian cap. Personal preference.

With Tua presumably back, I do like Miami here. But we need to keep in mind that this offense wasn't exactly humming in the game-and-a-half that we saw with him in the lineup early in the season. Either way, even a limited-ish Tua would be a massive upgrade over Tyler Huntley and, God forbid, Tim Boyle.

Arizona was (very) fortunate to come out of Monday night with a win over the Chargers. The Cardinals got a pair of ridiculous breaks early in the game and were somehow able to hold Los Angeles without a touchdown despite the Chargers piling up 395 yards of offense, 6.2 YPP and winning the time of possession battle by nearly 10 minutes.

Ultimately, that felt like a flukey win for the Cardinals against a banged-up Chargers offense. While I'm expecting Tua to show some signs of rust, we'll take the Dolphins to return to having a functional NFL offense and cover at home.

The pick: Dolphins 28 – Cardinals 23

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Spread: Jets -7.0

Total: 41.5

Not much to say here. The Jets have burned us in back-to-back weeks, but the ultimate reprieve for a struggling team is the New England Patriots. Drake Maye has infused some life into the passing game, but this is still a very limited offense that continues to be plagued by offensive line injuries. 

I absolutely hate this pick, because the Jets are in the doghouse, but we have to – extremely reluctantly – ride with Aaron Rodgers yet again this week. The Jets may not be a good team, but they have enough of a talent edge, with Davante Adams up to speed, to take care of business.

The pick: Jets 26 – Patriots 17

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Falcons -2.5

Total: 45.5

Not only did Tampa Bay put a mark in the loss column on Monday night, but perhaps more importantly it lost Chris Godwin for the season and will be without Mike Evans (hamstring) through their Week 11 bye. Beating the Ravens was always going to be an uphill battle, but losing Godwin – the No. 2 WR in PPR points this season – is a crushing blow going forward. And if Evans misses time, suddenly the Bucs' high-powered offense will turn to Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer as its top receiving options.

The injuries, combined with a short week, make the Falcons seem like the obvious play – especially if this line holds under 3.0. But the Bucs now have a reasonable running game behind the three-headed monster of Rachaad White, Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker. They'll need to lean more on that going forward, and it's worth noting that Tampa rushed for 160 yards (and 6.2 YPC) on this Atlanta defense a couple weeks ago.

With that said, the Bucs' defense just got shredded by the Ravens and gave up 509 passing yards to Kirk Cousins in Week 5. So while I do think Tampa Bay can keep this game close, the Falcons should be able to do enough offensively to cover on the road and avoid an extremely Falcons letdown.

The pick: Falcons 30 – Buccaneers 24

Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -2.5

Total: 47.5

On a slate dominated by lopsided spreads, this is pretty easily the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. We're nearly halfway through the season, and I feel like we still don't know who either of these teams really are. Both have found ways to grind out wins the last two weeks, but the underlying numbers have not been impressive.

Sure, Philly's defense held the Giants to a preposterous 2.2 yards per play – far and away the lowest of any team this season –  but Philly went 1-of-13 on third downs, while Jalen Hurts attempted just 14 passes for 114 yards. One of those went for a long score to A.J. Brown, and Saquon Barkley handled the rest of the heavy lifting.

Cincy, meanwhile, held on for a seven-point win over the Browns but scored just one offensive touchdown. After returning the opening kickoff for a TD, the Bengals punted or turned it over on their next six drives. Cincy converted just 2-of-13 third downs (Cleveland went 8-of-19) and was out-gained by over 100 yards, while Cleveland won the time-of-possession battle by 10 minutes.

Bottom line: Both teams tend to make the easy things look difficult while relying heavily on hitting a few big plays each week. In some ways, this is the perfect prove it game for each side. The Bengals probably need it more after their 1-4 start, but I'll ride with the Eagles to win a close, this shouldn't be as ugly as it is game outright on the road.

The pick: Eagles 23 – Bengals 21

Sunday Afternoon Slate

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -7.0

Total: 40.5

Without knowing the full extent of the Saints' injury situation, this is a tough game to handicap. It doesn't seem as though Derek Carr will return this week, which likely means one more start for Spencer Rattler behind an extremely banged-up offensive line. The degree to which the Saints looked overmatched against Denver last week was astounding. Offensively, we expected New Orleans to be limited, but the Saints' defense was equally poor and never really enabled the Saints to have a chance to hang around.

This week, the Saints get a Chargers team that struggles to score but should be able to take advantage of a porous defense and that rundown offensive line. The Chargers are the No. 4 defense in the NFL by EPA, and this will be a spot where they can get their running game going against the league's 31st-ranked rush defense. We may update this pick if the Saints' injury report improves, but for now we'll take the Chargers.

The pick: Chargers 24 – Saints 12

Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Bills -3.0

Total: 46.5

Fun cross-conference matchup in the late window as Seattle looks to stay hot after taking care of the Falcons on the road last week. There's a good chance they'll have to do it without DK Metcalf, however, who exited on a cart with a knee injury in the second half.

Seattle does have other weapons – maybe this is the week Jaxon Smith-Njigba breaks out – but removing Metcalf from the offense is a major loss. Seattle will likely turn to its ground game, which was effective last week behind Kenneth Walker.

The Bills shook off of a slow start against Tennessee to cruise to an easy win, and we should see more of Amari Cooper, who played only 19 snaps last week but still caught a touchdown. The Bills should be able to take advantage of a shaky Seattle run defense, which has allowed 5.0 yards per carry and 146.1 yards per game thus far – both bottom-five marks in the NBA.

Playing at home with Buffalo making a cross-country trek, I like Seattle to hang in and make this a close game. Even so, we'll take the Bills to win and narrowly cover.

The pick: Bills 31 – Seahawks 27

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders

Spread: Bears -2.5

Total: 43.5

As of publication, we can't quite get an accurate read on this game with Jayden Daniels' status still up in the air. The latest update is that Daniels will not practice Wednesday – not a great sign, but Washington is yet to close the door on the star rookie suiting up in Week 8.

If Daniels is out, the Commanders will again turn to Marcus Mariota, who came on in relief last week against Carolina. Obviously, Mariota is a significant downgrade, but he tore apart the Panthers' defense for 205 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns while completing 18-of-23 passes. Mariota also carried 11 times for 34 yards.

Mariota is a stable enough veteran that he could probably pilot Washington to a win against any bad team, like Carolina, and many of the mid-level teams in the league. But going from Carolina to Chicago – off of a bye – is a huge level-up in terms of defensive quality. The Bears have climbed to third in the NFL in defensive EPA, second in pass defense EPA, and seventh in pressure rate. 

If it is, indeed, Mariota under center, I don't expect the Commanders to fully wilt. They've developed enough of a system that Mariota should be able to keep Washington competitive. But ultimately I can't go against the Chicago defense and a vastly improved ground game that should be able to move the ball on the league's 25th-ranked defense.

The pick: Bears 24 – Commanders 20

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -9.5

Total: 43.5

I've been extremely reluctant to buy in on this Denver team, but at this point they're forcing my hand. While Bo Nix continues to mix in a few comically inaccurate throws per week, he's starting to settle in and has done a good job of using his legs as a weapon. More importantly, the Broncos have rounded into one of the best defenses in the league. The schedule has played a part, but Denver ranks first in defensive EPA and should get Patrick Surtain back from concussion protocol this week.

The Panthers still have the potential to be frisky, but the Andy Dalton honeymoon is quickly wearing off. Over the last three weeks alone, Carolina has been outscored 114 to 37. Against Washington, even after Jayden Daniels went out after one series, the Commanders continued to move the ball at will with Marcus Mariota at the helm.

Dalton was also involved in a car accident this week and did not practice Wednesday. Shortly after, the Panthers announced that Bryce Young will get the start in Denver.

I still don't fully trust the Denver offense, but this defense should be able to wreak havoc on one of the NFL's least-talented rosters. And with Young at the helm, Denver becomes an auto-play.

The pick: Broncos 27 – Panthers 14

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Chiefs -9.5

Total: 41.5

Is this a potential trap game for the Chiefs? Maybe. We saw Kansas City lose outright to the Raiders last season, but I'd be surprised if we see a similar scenario play out. The Raiders were able to hang in with the Rams last week, but this is a major jump up in competition – particularly the Chiefs' defense, which has held three straight opponents under 20 points. 

What concerns me with this number is Kansas City's lack of explosiveness offensively. The Raiders have been decent against the run, so KC will have to lean more on Mahomes and a passing game that hasn't exactly been firing on all cylinders this season. Still, it's tough to look at this Raiders offense – which turned it over three times last week – and feel confident that it will do enough to keep this game close.

It's not among my favorite picks, by any means, but we'll ride the recent trend of road favorites taking care of business.

The pick: Chiefs 27 – Raiders 13

Sunday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -4.5

Total: 46.5

Massive game on Sunday night as far as the NFC playoff picture goes. Coming out of a bye, Dallas sits at 3-3, while the Niners fell to 3-4 after losing at home to the Chiefs in Week 7.

While the Niners are sizable favorites, Dallas will see a diminished version of the reigning NFC champs. Not only did San Francisco lose Brandon Aiyuk for the season, but Deebo Samuel landed in the hospital with pneumonia, Jajuan Jennings is banged up and George Kittle is battling a sprained foot. And, of course, Christian McCaffrey remains on IR and likely won't return until after the Niners' Week 9 bye.

Dallas is still dealing with some key injuries of its own – DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons – and it remains unclear if the latter will have a chance to return this week. With all of the (potential) absences, this game is extremely difficult to handicap. Given the Niners' situation, I lean Dallas, but it's also difficult to imagine San Francisco sitting at 3-5. This is a spot in which the Niners should be able to rely on the run against a Dallas defense that ranks dead-last in rush defense EPA.

For what it's worth, the total bets and money are pretty split on this game. It's firmly in stay-away territory for me, but we'll take the points with Dallas.

The pick: 49ers 27 – Cowboys 24

Monday Night Football

New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Steelers -6.5

Total: 36.5

I've struggled to pick both of these teams of late, highlighted by last week's Disaster Pick™ against the Steelers. I suppose I need to eat crow on the Russell Wilson experiment, which got off to a shaky start but ended up paying dividends as Sunday night's game went along.

While I will maintain that the Steelers will miss Justin Fields' mobility, Wilson is a significant upgrade as a passer and instantly unlocked big plays to George Pickens down the field.

On the Giants side, they're coming off of the worst offensive performance of the season by any team and clearly felt the absence of Andrew Thomas, as Daniel Jones and Drew Lock were sacked eight times and finished with 43 net passing yards. This is another primetime stay-away for me, but we'll ride with the Steelers to get after Jones and once again limit an offense that failed to generate a single play of more than 14 yards last week.

The pick: Steelers 24 – Giants 17