This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 6-9 last week, lost my best bet (Browns) and went 2-3 in the SuperContest, so the quicker I move on from it, the better.
This week was tough, too, but I like the Colts, Dolphins and Falcons.
THANKSGIVING DAY
Bears -3 at Lions
I've been poring over this for Survivor (we need to use a team on Thanksgiving Day, and we've used up the Cowboys and Bills), and I'm still not clear because we don't know who's starting at quarterback for the Lions, whether Allen Robinson will play or whether the Bears will show up for lame duck coach Matt Nagy. I'll roll the dice on the Bears, but it's a coin flip.
Bears 24 - 20
Raiders +7.5 at Cowboys
With Tyron Smith back in the fold, the Cowboys are closer to full strength, and much as I want them to lose, I'd expect them to roll against a reeling Raiders team. Lay the wood.
Cowboys 31 - 20
THURSDAY NIGHT
Bills -6 at Saints
The Saints might be without Alvin Kamara, left tackle Terron Armstead and right tackle Ryan Ramczyk, defensive end Marcus Davenport is also questionable and Trevor Siemian is under center. But this is a lot of points on a short-week road game for a Bills squad that has been mediocre the last month. Still, I have a Bills feeling. Lay the wood.
Bills 27 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Titans +6.5 at Patriots
The Titans have gone toe to toe with everyone
I went 6-9 last week, lost my best bet (Browns) and went 2-3 in the SuperContest, so the quicker I move on from it, the better.
This week was tough, too, but I like the Colts, Dolphins and Falcons.
THANKSGIVING DAY
Bears -3 at Lions
I've been poring over this for Survivor (we need to use a team on Thanksgiving Day, and we've used up the Cowboys and Bills), and I'm still not clear because we don't know who's starting at quarterback for the Lions, whether Allen Robinson will play or whether the Bears will show up for lame duck coach Matt Nagy. I'll roll the dice on the Bears, but it's a coin flip.
Bears 24 - 20
Raiders +7.5 at Cowboys
With Tyron Smith back in the fold, the Cowboys are closer to full strength, and much as I want them to lose, I'd expect them to roll against a reeling Raiders team. Lay the wood.
Cowboys 31 - 20
THURSDAY NIGHT
Bills -6 at Saints
The Saints might be without Alvin Kamara, left tackle Terron Armstead and right tackle Ryan Ramczyk, defensive end Marcus Davenport is also questionable and Trevor Siemian is under center. But this is a lot of points on a short-week road game for a Bills squad that has been mediocre the last month. Still, I have a Bills feeling. Lay the wood.
Bills 27 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Titans +6.5 at Patriots
The Titans have gone toe to toe with everyone in the league, but they are so depleted now, I'm not sure they're even an above average team. Plus, I'll keep taking the Pats until they stop covering. Lay the wood.
Patriots 24 - 13
Jets +2.5 at Texans
With Zach Wilson likely to start, give me the Texans who are at least an NFL team with Tyrod Taylor.
Texans 24 - 17
Eagles -3.5 at Giants
The Eagles have woken up, while the Giants have gone to sleep. Daniel Jones looked awful Monday night in Tampa, the offensive line didn't block well, and the defense offered only modest resistance. This is a big number on the road for the Eagles, though. Take the Giants.
Eagles 23 - 20
Buccaneers -3 at Colts
The Buccaneers looked great on Monday night, but now they have to travel off a short week and lay points against another surging team. Take the home dog.
Colts 24 - 23
Falcons -1 at Jaguars
The Falcons have no-showed the last two weeks, but I'll buy-low against a bad Jacksonville team. Take Atlanta.
Falcons 27 - 20
Panthers -2 at Dolphins
The Panthers are a solid team now that they have an NFL-caliber quarterback, but the Dolphins have gotten better each week and shouldn't be getting points at home. Take Miami.
Dolphins 20 - 19
Steelers +4.5 at Bengals
With T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick likely back, this line strikes me as excessive. Take the Steelers who keep it close enough.
Bengals 26 - 23
LATE GAMES
Chargers -2.5 at Broncos
Another coin flip, but I'll take the Broncos who have the better defense, can run the ball and are at home.
Broncos 27 - 26
Vikings +3 at 49ers
The Vikings just handled the Packers, so maybe it's time to sell, but the 49ers are so Jekyll and Hyde it's hard to get a good feel for this. I'll lay the wood on a hunch.
49ers 31 - 27
Rams pick 'em at Packers
Aaron Rodgers has a bad toe, and he's missing one of his best offensive linemen. The Rams should be getting at least three points here, but I'll fade value and go on gut. Take the Rams.
Rams 23 - 20
SUNDAY NIGHT
Browns +3.5 at Ravens
This seems like too few points, but the Ravens defense has been bad, and the Browns could get right tackle Jack Conklin and Kareem Hunt, whose pass-catching skills are needed, back. I want to take the Ravens, given how awful Baker Mayfield played last week, but I'll do the contrarian thing and take the Browns.
Ravens 24 - 23
MONDAY NIGHT
Seahawks +1 at Team
The Seahawks have looked awful the last two weeks with Russell Wilson, while the Team has beaten the Buccaneers at home and the Panthers on the road. And yet, the Seahawks are still being treated as the neutral-field better team. That said, I'll buy low, especially given all the talk about Pete Carroll being done. Take the point.
Seahawks 26 - 23
Last week, I went into 6-9 ATS to go to 80-82-3 on the year, lost my best bet (Browns) to go to 9-2, and went 2-3 in the SuperContest to go 28-26-1. Last year my record was 118-130-8, my best bet record was 5-12 and I finished the Supercontest 35-48-2. In 2019, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2020, I've gone 2,808-2,626 (51.7%), not including ties.
