Beating the Book

I went 6-8 last week, again, just below .500, but I won my best bet (Titans) to go 6-0. The other teams I highlighted (Browns, Chargers and Dolphins) all lost. 

This week, I like the Dolphins, Bengals, Team and Saints. 

THURSDAY NIGHT

Broncos +3 at Browns 

I have no idea who's playing for the Browns -- both their starting tackles are questionable, their quarterback is banged up and returning on a short week, and they're down their top two running backs, at least one of their top-two receivers  and maybe their best pass-catching tight end too. But the defense is largely healthy, so I'll hold my nose and lay the wood. 

Browns 20 - 16

EARLY GAMES

Bengals +6 at Ravens

The Ravens destroyed the Chargers last week, and their defense played surprisingly well for the first time all year. That said, I'll sell high and take the Bengals who should be up for a game against their division rival. Take the points. 

Ravens 27 - 24

Panthers -3 at Giants

The Giants were awful last week and are still banged up offensively, but I like their defense to give the erratic Sam Darnold some trouble. Take the points. 

Panthers 20 - 19

Team +9.5 at Packers

The Team is bad, and the Packers are good, but this is just the spot for a letdown after Aaron Rodgers got cocky in thrashing the hapless Bears. Take the points. 

Packers 27 - 20

Chiefs -5.5 at Titans

I don't love the Titans off a huge Monday night win, but this is a big line for the Chiefs' defense against Derrick Henry and co. Take the points. 

Chiefs 37 - 34

Falcons -2.5 at Dolphins

I'd actually like to buy both teams here, but give me the Dolphins who have Tua Tagovailoa back, are at home and would have been favored by five or six before the season started. The only thing that gives me pause are the Falcons are coming off a bye, while the Dolphins are recovering from the London game. 

Dolphins 26 - 23

Jets +7 at Patriots

The Jets have shown up the past two weeks, while the Patriots lost a heartbreaker to the Cowboys in overtime. Still, give me the Pats at home with the better rookie quarterback and coach. 

Patriots 27 - 17

LATE GAMES

Lions +15 at Rams 

I made this line 15.5, so I'm barely on the Rams, but it's close to a coin flip for me. We'll see which franchise gets revenge against its No. 1 overall pick QB, or vice-versa. 

Rams 33 - 17

Eagles +3 at Raiders

This is where I set the line. The Raiders are better, but the Eagles feel like the right play to me after Vegas' big win post-Gruden last week. Take the points. 

Raiders 24 - 23

Bears +12.5 at Buccaneers

I was initially on the Bucs, had thoughts of switching, but I'll stick with it. But I lack any conviction here. 

Buccaneers 31 - 17

Texans +18 at Cardinals

I made this line 17.5 so I'm narrowly on the Texans, but total coin flip. 

Cardinals 33 - 16

SUNDAY NIGHT

Colts +4 at 49ers

The Colts have turned a corner, it feels like, while I don't know what to make of the 49ers. Either way, this should be a close game, so give me the points. 

Colts 24 - 23

MONDAY NIGHT

Saints -5 at Seahawks

The Seahawks showed up at Pittsburgh last week, but it was a brutal, physical game, and now they get the Saints who are coming off a bye. Lay the wood. 

Saints 27 - 20

Last week, I went 6-8 ATS to go to 43-49-2 on the year, won my best bet (Titans) to go to 6-0, and went 2-3 in the SuperContest to go 14-15-1.  Last year my record was 118-130-8, my best bet record was 5-12 and I finished the Supercontest 35-48-2. In 2019, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2020, I've gone 2,808-2,626 (51.7%), not including ties.