Beating The Book

What a terrible week. I went 4-10-2, lost my best bet (Eagles) by half a point, thanks to the punter getting hurt and backup holder Zach Ertz not being able to handle a bad snap for a missed PAT, and went 1-4 in the Supercontest. The lucky bounces I got in Week 14 seem like a century ago. 

This week, I especially like the Broncos, Rams, Eagles and Titans. 

CHRISTMAS DAY

Vikings +7 at Saints

I made this line 7.5, but the Vikings always seem to play better on the road and as underdogs. I'll stick with the Saints off their two losses, but I'm not strong on it. Lay the wood. 

Saints 27 - 19

SATURDAY GAMES

Buccaneers -9.5 at Lions

I was shocked the line was this high -- I'm assuming Matthew Stafford is playing, so why are the Bucs laying this kind of wood in Detroit? Often when a line makes no sense you're missing something, and maybe that's the case here, but I'm taking the points. 

Buccaneers 31 - 23

49ers +5 at Cardinals

The 49ers always play well when you least expect them to, but the Cardinals have been getting to the quarterback, and Kyler Murray looks healthy again. Lay the wood. 

Cardinals 28 - 20

Dolphins -3 at Raiders

I made this line minus 2.5, so I'm on the Raiders. The Dolphins show up every week, but I'll buy the Raiders low. 

Dolphins 24 - 23

EARLY GAMES

Browns -9.5 at Jets

I wanted to fade the Jets off an improbable win, but this is a lot of points for the Browns to lay on the road. Take New York. 

Browns 24 - 17

Bengals +8 at Texans

I made this line six, so I should be on the Bengals, but I don't like that they're coming off a huge win against a division rival and a short week. Still, I'll hold my nose and take the points. 

Texans 27 - 20

Colts -1.5 at Steelers

The Steelers are in free fall, but I'll give Mike Tomlin another chance to get it fixed. Also, Philip Rivers has done well against weak defenses, but he's prone to falling apart against good ones. Take the points. 

Steelers 24 - 23

Bears -7.5 at Jaguars

I have no idea why the Jaguars are splitting reps between Gardner Minshew and Mike Glennon, but this is too many points for the Bears to lay on the road. Give me the Jaguars. 

Bears 27 - 20

Giants +11 at Ravens

The Giants offense is terrible right now, but the Ravens defense is nothing special, and this is (barely) enough points. 

Ravens 26 - 17

Falcons +10.5 at Chiefs

The Chiefs are taking their foot off the gas late in games, while the Falcons are a league average team at least since they canned Dan Quinn. Take the points. 

Chiefs 30 - 23

LATE GAMES

Broncos +3 at Chargers

The Broncos got destroyed by a superior Bills team last week, but they're roughly equal to the Chargers, and three points is more than the value of home field this year, especially the Chargers' field. Take the points. 

Broncos 27 - 26

Panthers +2.5 at Football Team

These are roughly equal teams, so this is probably the right line. I liked the way the Panthers defense stepped up against the Packers last week, so I'll take the points. 

Football Team 20 - 19

Rams +1.5 at Seahawks

The Rams got embarrassed by the Jets last week, but I see that as a one-off anomaly. Expect a bounce back and take the points against a top-heavy Seahawks team. 

Rams 23 - 20

Eagles -2 at Cowboys

Jalen Hurts looks like Deshaun Watson to me, and that's enough to lay the wood here. Take the Eagles. 

Eagles 27 - 20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Titans +3.5 at Packers

These are two of the top offenses in the league, and I don't expect either team to get many stops. But give me the squad that can bludgeon you on the ground in what could be cold weather. Take the points. 

Titans 31 - 30

MONDAY NIGHT

Bills -7 at Patriots

I've gotten killed going against the Bills two of the last three weeks, but this line prices in their recent performance, and I don't think the Patriots will make it easy for them. Take the points. 

Bills 24 - 20

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I went 4-10-2 last week to bring my season-long record to 105-113-6, lost my best bet (Eagles 5-10) and went 1-4 in the Supercontest to go 33-41-1 overall. Last year, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. In 2018, I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2019, I've gone 2,690-2,496 (51.9%), not including ties.