ADP Battles: St. Brown vs. Brown vs. Diggs

Written by

Published on July 6, 2023

Most experienced fantasy managers go into their drafts with some type of cheat sheet. But let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because often, fantasy players have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.

In the previous articles, we looked at nine players who usually go in the first round of drafts. This week, we'll look at wideouts that often go near the end of the first round. A.J. Brown, Stefon Diggs and Amon-Ra St. Brown are all excellent options to consider if looking for a receiver.

A.J. Brown

Brown moved to Philadelphia last year and had a career year with 1,496 yards and 11 touchdowns. Moving from the run-based offense of the Titans to the balanced attack of a dynamic Eagles offense seemed to be the key to unlocking this superstar receiver. Is there still room for improvement?

Upside

Brown was used as a downfield threat often, and his 17 yards per reception was his highest mark since his rookie season.
He's always a dangerous runner with the ball in his hands, and he was in the 90th percentile in yardage after the catch in 2022.
He surpassed 95 yards on eight occasions.
He showed few floor games, posting less than 59 yards just three times (32, 7, 46)
He was targeted a career-high 145 times.

Downside

Before playing in 17 games last year, Brown missed seven games (and was limited in others) over the prior two seasons.
If the Eagles defense takes another step forward this year, they may be so good that the team runs the ball often in the second half of games, limiting Brown's targets.

The Bottom Line

Even though injuries were a problem earlier in Brown's career, the fact he stayed healthy last year should give fantasy managers confidence. It's also possible that even if the Eagles are blowing out opponents in many games, there will be enough first-half production to keep his floor and ceiling high. Actually, I felt as if the Eagles underused Brown in a number of games. It's possible he sees closer to 170 targets if they view things the same way I do. He should be a lock for 1,300 yards with incredible ceiling potential.

Stefon Diggs

With 108 receptions, 1,429 yards and 11 touchdowns last year, Diggs had his second massive season in three years with the Bills. However, he was frustrated with his usage in the latter part of the regular season and that spilled into the NFL Playoffs. His unhappiness seemed to carry over into the early part of the summer, although coach Sean McDermott said all is well. However, star receivers who complain about their usage usually are catered to. If that's the case, Diggs will remain one of the top receivers in the league.

Upside

Diggs has had between 154-166 targets in each year with the Bills.
Seven 100-yard games in 2022 tied his career high.
Three-year average of 113 receptions, 1,396 yards and 9.7 touchdowns.

Downside

Failed to reach 100 yards in Weeks 11-16.
He had a 46th percentile yards after catch rate.

The Bottom Line

Diggs could've had a career year last year, but it's possible that his decline in production down the stretch had to do with Josh Allen's elbow injury. With Diggs having been an excellent producer since beginning his time with Allen, that seems like a reasonable connection to draw. The Bills remain in a Super Bowl window, so they would be wise to continue funneling the passing game through Diggs. Failure to do so could sabotage their chances. The frustration he showed should ensure he flirts with 160 targets, which should make him worth a first-round pick in drafts.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Playing 76 percent of his snaps in the slot last year, St. Brown was targeted 149 times as the lead receiver for the Lions. Even though he was eased into a prominent role during his 2021 rookie season, he's averaged over 1,000 yards in his two-year career. Is he ready to make a jump in production in his third season?

Upside

St. Brown was 72nd percentile in yards after catch.
He was targeted at least nine times and posted at least 60 yards in 12 games.
His yards per route run was in the 94th percentile.

Downside

He hasn't been an elite touchdown scorer with five and six in his two years.
When Jameson Williams returns from suspension after six games, it's possible he's heavily featured, which could cut into St. Brown's target share.
Jahmyr Gibbs, despite playing running back, could factor into the passing attack.

The Bottom Line

St. Brown has proven to be an excellent player from the moment he became a focal part of the offense as a rookie. However, the ceiling of the offense could be limited with Jared Goff as the quarterback. It's a concern that Gibbs could see receiving work in the middle of the field, which could take targets away from St. Brown. The Lions may also look to Williams to become the alpha receiver in the offense once he serves out his suspension. Finally, St. Brown has not had truly elite production yet, and as a primary slot receiver in an offense that may be merely good rather than great, using a first-round pick on him may not provide the level of upside other players drafted in that area possess.

The Final Word

It's really close between Diggs and Brown. However, with the diversity of the Eagles offense, defenses may never be able to truly commit to selling out to stop the former Titan. Therefore, Brown could be more dangerous in his second year with the team. I think he has a level of potential upside that Diggs can't match. It's hard to ignore Brown's recent injury history (2020-2021) though compared to Diggs, who never misses games. If I want an ultra-high floor, Diggs is the choice. If I want access to an incredibly high ceiling, I'd lean toward Brown. The odd man out for me is St. Brown. If he was falling outside the top-15 picks in drafts, I'd begin to look at him, but I don't think he's shown the floor or ceiling to be in the first-round discussion.