This article is part of our Football Draft Kit series.
Most experienced fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. We'll compare players at the same position because that's what fantasy managers typically do when they're targeting a specific pick.
Once the typical top-four WRs are off the board, fantasy managers looking at the next few options at receiver have some exceptional players to consider.
The ADP Battle: Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf and Justin Jefferson
Calvin Ridley
Upside: After 143 targets in 15 games last year, Calvin Ridley finds himself in position to see a ridiculous number of targets again, especially being on a team that's projected to have a terrible defense that should force Matt Ryan to throw a lot. And with Julio Jones no longer on the team, not only could Ridley vie for the league lead in targets, but he's shown that he's an elite player, after posting 1,374 yards last year and averaging 8.67 TDs his first three years in the league. Having already played in a number of games without Jones in 2020, he's proven that he can be very productive when being the top option. In the six games between Weeks 3 and 16 last year when Jones was out, Ridley averaged seven catches for 119 yards
Most experienced fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. We'll compare players at the same position because that's what fantasy managers typically do when they're targeting a specific pick.
Once the typical top-four WRs are off the board, fantasy managers looking at the next few options at receiver have some exceptional players to consider.
The ADP Battle: Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf and Justin Jefferson
Calvin Ridley
Upside: After 143 targets in 15 games last year, Calvin Ridley finds himself in position to see a ridiculous number of targets again, especially being on a team that's projected to have a terrible defense that should force Matt Ryan to throw a lot. And with Julio Jones no longer on the team, not only could Ridley vie for the league lead in targets, but he's shown that he's an elite player, after posting 1,374 yards last year and averaging 8.67 TDs his first three years in the league. Having already played in a number of games without Jones in 2020, he's proven that he can be very productive when being the top option. In the six games between Weeks 3 and 16 last year when Jones was out, Ridley averaged seven catches for 119 yards on 0.5 TDs, which included five of his eight 100-yard games on the season. His upside is the top receiver in fantasy.
Downside: With a shaky set of receiving weapons along with rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, who may be immensely talented but will need to have an outlier season to be considered a player that defenses need to dedicate extra resources to stop, there's a chance that defenses sell out to stop Ridley. Even though he's been extremely productive in similar scenarios in the past, the level of attention he could receive could be much more aggressive than he's seen in the past. Even if that occurs, he'll still have excellent upside based on likely target volume, but if defenses bracket him in the red zone and dedicate a defender over the top to limit big plays, he could finish as more of a top-12 receiver opposed to a top-four option.
DK Metcalf
Upside: Last year was DK Metcalf's second year in the league, and in the first half of the season, he averaged only 5.5 receptions per game but turned it into an average of 98.5 yards and a touchdown. Going into his third year in the league with new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who is expected to speed up the offensive pace and make the offense less predictable by integrating a more varied attack in the passing game, Metcalf could see a major increase in the 83 targets he saw, and with one of the most amazing athletic profiles we've ever seen in a receiver (6-foot-4, 235, 4.33 40-yard-dash while performing in at least the 94th percentile in explosiveness and strength drills), not only can he run by defenders, but he can overpower and outleap them. If his talent is completely unlocked this year, it is in his range of outcomes that we see one of the best seasons ever by a receiver, and it'll help that he has an elite quarterback in Russell Wilson throwing him the football. It also may help Metcalf that a Seattle defense that improved a bit as last season went on, but lost a number of key defenders in the offseason, so the defense could regress and force the offense into a significant number of shootouts.
Downside: Despite the team bringing in Waldron as the new offensive coordinator, if coach Pete Carroll puts his foot down and demands the team run the ball as a primary method of attack, Metcalf could see his target share closer to what he saw last year, as the games could get shortened while the team sees fewer scoring opportunities. Also, if the team continues to become too reliant upon downfield passing, Metcalf could miss out on many of the short and intermediate routes that help to build up the stats of a player who profiles as an alpha receiver. Overall, his talent and quarterback are too good for him to have a poor season, but if Metcalf doesn't see a spike in targets, he's unlikely to earn his draft position.
Justin Jefferson
Upside: One of the scariest things about Justin Jefferson's record-setting rookie season in which he posted 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns is that he was a part-time player the first two weeks of the season. After being targeted five or fewer times in six of the first eight games, he averaged more than 10 targets in the second half of the season, and during the last eight games, he averaged seven receptions, 97 yards and 0.5 TDs, and this was with defenses rolling coverage toward him as the Vikings' No. 1 receiver. Even though Minnesota could take a big step forward on defense this year, which could keep them from regularly playing in catch-up mode, the team prefers to use two tight-end sets on offense, meaning that just Jefferson and Adam Thielen will usually be sharing the wide receiver targets without a third option, so Jefferson's target share should remain high. After what he showed in his rookie season, even if he modestly builds on those numbers, he could end the season in the top three at his position.
Downside: Although Jefferson proved that he's already one of the best receivers in the league, if the Minnesota defense makes more strides than expected and becomes a top-10 unit, coach Mike Zimmer may position his team into playing in slugfests where neither team hits 20 points on the scoreboard in most weeks. If that's the case, the team will rely more than ever on the rushing attack, and there could be a significant number of weeks that Kirk Cousins throws the ball around 20 times, which isn't enough to consistently fuel an alpha receiver for top-end production. As a result, there could be too many weeks when Jefferson has floor performances, keeping him from being a top-eight option at his position.
Bottom line
With the target volume we've already seen Ridley get, and with the likelihood that the volume increases this year, he has the highest floor of these three receivers along with an excellent ceiling, so fantasy GMs looking for the most reliable option could consider going with him in drafts.
Of these WRs, Metcalf is by far the most incredible athlete, and while he may still be growing into his game, he could have a season for the ages if he flirts with 120 or more targets, which is definitely possible. Although he may not have the floor of Ridley, his floor is unlikely to hurt fantasy managers, but the tradeoff for potential greatness makes him the home-run choice.
Being that we only have one year of experience from Jefferson, there could be some uncertainty as to how his second year plays out, and of these three WRs, he's the one who's most likely to be stuck in an offense that becomes too run heavy. His floor is unlikely to match Ridley's and his upside may not have the ceiling of Metcalf's, but fantasy managers who expect Jefferson to take a second-year leap could justify moving him to the top of this list.
