Matt Mervis

Mervis was pretty unlucky in his first big-league cup of coffee, but first basemen and designated hitters don't usually get many chances in their mid-20s to prove they belong in a big-league lineup. He had a .218 BABIP, .167 average and .234 xBA while showcasing an impressive 111.8 mph maxEV, 13.8 Barrel% and 50.0 HardHit% in 58 events over 99 plate appearances. His 32.3 percent strikeout rate was by far the highest mark of his pro career, but his 30.7 O-Swing% and 75.0 Z-Swing% were strong swing-decision marks for a rookie. Mervis, who turns 26 in April, was excellent for the second year in a row at Triple-A, but his exploits at that level are irrelevant at this point. He is either a Quad-A hitter or a big leaguer, and we won't know for sure until he gets an extended look. Just because Mervis looks like he's atop the depth chart in December doesn't mean that won't change as the offseason progresses, so make sure you don't go into the season relying on him.

Mervis, one of the gems of the undrafted free agent class from the shortened five-round pandemic draft of 2020, was one of the breakout hitting prospects of 2022. Not only did he destroy the pitching at High-A (182 wRC+), Double-A (148 wRC+) and Triple-A (152 wRC+), but his strikeout rate dropped and his walk rate increased as the competition improved. Mervis slashed .297/.383/.593 with 15 home runs, a 10.4 BB% and a 14.6 K% in 57 games at Triple-A and had three strikeouts and three walks while homering five times in his first 12 games of the Arizona Fall League. He is seemingly getting better every week en route to tallying 41 home runs in 149 games (and counting) in 2022. The Cubs added veterans Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini during the offseason, temporarily blocking the path the playing time at first base in the majors, though his long-term outlook at the position remains positive. Mervis' OPS was 1.034 against righties and .869 against lefties, so while he may be worse against same-handed pitching, he won't need a platoon partner when the Cubs deem him ready for the big leagues. Mervis had already drawn plenty of attention as a popular sleeper pick early in offseason drafts, but expect his ADP to trend down heading into spring training with the likelihood that he opens the season at Triple-A Iowa following the Cubs' additions of Hosmer and Mancini.