This article is part of our Football Draft Kit series.
Most experienced fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. We'll compare players at the same position because that's what fantasy managers typically do when they're targeting a specific pick.
In this battle, we'll look at the three QBs typically drafted between picks 57 and 65 in leagues that start a single QB. This is a great spot to target this position, especially for fantasy managers who prefer not to use a premium pick on Patrick Mahomes or wait until after roughly the 80th pick to address the position.
Kyler Murray
Upside: For more than half of last season, Kyler Murray was an elite performer, rushing for 10 touchdowns through Week 10, and he seemed well on his way to challenging for the crown of top-scoring QB before a shoulder injury limited him as a runner and passer the rest of the way. If he stays healthy this season, he could post massive rushing numbers, and the addition of A.J. Green and Rondale Moore to the WR corps could provide the team the ability to run the four-receiver sets it prefers, as personnel in past years has forced it to back off from that plan. At the breakneck speed the Cardinals run plays, along
Most experienced fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. We'll compare players at the same position because that's what fantasy managers typically do when they're targeting a specific pick.
In this battle, we'll look at the three QBs typically drafted between picks 57 and 65 in leagues that start a single QB. This is a great spot to target this position, especially for fantasy managers who prefer not to use a premium pick on Patrick Mahomes or wait until after roughly the 80th pick to address the position.
Kyler Murray
Upside: For more than half of last season, Kyler Murray was an elite performer, rushing for 10 touchdowns through Week 10, and he seemed well on his way to challenging for the crown of top-scoring QB before a shoulder injury limited him as a runner and passer the rest of the way. If he stays healthy this season, he could post massive rushing numbers, and the addition of A.J. Green and Rondale Moore to the WR corps could provide the team the ability to run the four-receiver sets it prefers, as personnel in past years has forced it to back off from that plan. At the breakneck speed the Cardinals run plays, along with the added weapons, the passing volume could also give Murray a chance to add strong passing production to his elite running skills, which could result in him being the top-scoring fantasy QB.
Downside: Murray said this offseason he'd like to run less, which might be wise for him from an NFL standpoint, but that would put a serious dent in his fantasy production. In terms of passing, there's a chance that any combination of Green, Moore and Christian Kirk simply don't pan out, and should the Cardinals have receiver issues, that would be a serious problem because the Arizona coaching staff has not used its receivers creatively. The passing offense became so predictable in the second half of 2020 that defenses simply loaded up their secondaries, keeping the offense from consistently sustaining drives and limiting Murray's passing production. Regardless, the downside isn't terrible, but these scenarios could potentially keep him from justifying his ADP.
Lamar Jackson
Upside: Not only did Lamar Jackson post more than 1,200 rushing yards in 2019, but after the Ravens backed off on designed runs for him in the first half of 2020, they changed course, and the result was him posting at least 80 yards in five of his last six games as he was back to being the lethal runner he was the year before. Although his passing numbers were not great last year, he did post 3,127 yards and 36 TDs in 2019, and after the team added Rashod Bateman and Sammy Watkins, Jackson potentially could see a spike in passing production from last year's 2,757 yards and 26 TDs. If the passing numbers simply settle between the 2019 and 2020 numbers, and Jackson continues to run as he did down the stretch last year, he could finish atop the position.
Downside: Jackson threw for well less than 200 yards per game last year, and unless he can significantly improve upon those numbers, he'll remain a strong fantasy option, though he'll lack elite upside. However, if the passing game clicks too well with his new receivers (Bateman and Watkins), the coaching staff could try to make Jackson into more of a passer and begin to call fewer designed runs for him. In addition, as a QB who has averaged 160 rushing attempts per season, Jackson has been incredibly durable, but regardless, running 10 times per game presents injury risk. Overall, if his rushing ability sees tangible decline, that would likely be problematic for fantasy managers.
Dak Prescott
Upside: Dak Prescott broke out in 2019, posting 4,902 passing yards with 33 total touchdowns, and in the last three games he played in 2020 before breaking his ankle, he accounted for 11 scores and at least 450 passing yards in each game. If Prescott keeps throwing at a blistering rate, and with one of the best receiver groups in the league and an offensive line that enters the season significantly healthier than last year, eye-popping numbers are sure to follow. And although he's only averaged about four rushing attempts per game in his career, he's averaged five rushing TDs per year in his four full seasons.
Downside: Although Prescott is expected to make a full recovery from last year's broken ankle, until he shows that he's able to function in his typical capacity as a runner and passer, there will be a level of uncertainty as to his expected production. The Cowboys also could be more balanced between the run and the pass, limiting Prescott's upside, which would place him outside the elite fantasy QBs.
Bottom Line
For those who want the best blend of floor and upside, Murray showed last year that playing in the hyper-speed attack that the Cardinals run, he'll have plenty of weekly volume as both a runner and a passer. In addition, the team added receiving weapons, and if they work out, he could have the type of incredible season that Jackson had in 2019.
The safest option for floor would have to be Jackson, especially after the Ravens went back to using him on designed runs down the stretch last year, and his weekly rushing baseline makes him unlikely to have many disappointing performances.
Although Prescott could set passing records if he attempts 50 passes a game again, his lack of rushing attempts keeps him from having the same weekly floor as Jackson and Murray. And last year's passing pace likely is unsustainable over a full season, ultimately making Prescott bit riskier than the other options.
