This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
In most drafts this summer, Jonathan Taylor is the first RB off the board. After that, other choices have significant concerns. The next three running backs coming off the board based on recent ADP are Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler and Dalvin Cook. Let's find out which is the best option.
Christian McCaffrey
Injury is the first place any McCaffrey discussion starts. He missed 23 of the last 33 games and ruined two seasons for fantasy managers, and many refuse to draft him. That's understandable. However, in the four full games he played last year, he had at least 24.7 PPR points. He clearly has incredible upside. In his last two games last year, he had 18 targets but saw his rushing attempts drastically reduced to 11.5 per game. It's possible the Panthers feature him more as a receiver than a runner to help him avoid contact, and he's more effective as a receiver — his yards per rush has declined significantly since his first two years. He can be an elite fantasy producer as long as his receiving totals remain high. Yes, there's big risk in drafting him, but he's the ultimate swing-for-the-fence player in drafts.
Austin Ekeler
Ekeler's coming off a career year. As a result, he's priced for that upside. Before handling 276 touches last year, his career high was 224. After that season, he missed six games — maybe it was bad fortune, but it also could have been the result of increased work. In the offseason, Ekeler asked the team to get him backfield help, and the Chargers drafted Isaiah Spiller. If Spiller is functional, Ekeler might not see more than 225 touches, which would make it tough to meet expectations of a first-round fantasy pick. If Spiller doesn't provide strong results, Ekeler could go back to a heavy workload. If so, can he hold up for another year of it? If he gets the volume and holds up, he'd be an easy top-5 RB. Regardless, he's averaged nearly seven targets per game the last three years. That volume should remain, and as one of the best receiving RBs in the league, he'll have excellent weekly floor and ceiling potential. But it does seem likely that he'll see a reduced workload.
Dalvin Cook
Cook's production dropped significantly last year after elite performances in 2019 and 2020. He'll come into this year no longer viewed as a player who's capable of being the top fantasy RB. Although he missed five games last year, he had only missed two games in each of the previous two seasons, so he's been fairly durable the last few years. After averaging 14.5 TDs in 2019 and 2020, he fell to just six last year, and his receiving yards dropped from 519 to 361 to 224 the last few years. However, things could turn around this year. The Vikings are expected to go from a conservative offense to more of a spread-out attack under new coach Kevin O'Connell. They'll also move from an inside-zone run team to an outside-zone system. In theory, this change would help Cook use his speed to the outside and also avoid some of the bigger hits he's been taking in the middle of the field the last few years. In addition, the screen game in this offense had great results with the Rams where O'Connell was the offensive coordinator, and with Cook being an excellent receiver, he could go back to being a big factor in that area. He's 27 this season, so he still should have the ability to reach his upside potential.
The Bottom Line
Each of these players has elite upside and injury risk. Each is 26 or 27, which theoretically means they're still in the latter stages of their prime. The anticipated drop in Ekeler's workload makes it problematic when investing a high draft pick. And after two mostly lost seasons, it's fair to question if McCaffrey took too much of a beating in his first three seasons to remain healthy. Although Cook has questions as well, the change in the Vikings' offense seems to fit well with his strengths. That expectation is what puts Cook at the top of this ADP battle.
