ADP Battles: Kamara vs. Elliott vs. Henry

Most experienced fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. We'll compare players at the same position because that's what fantasy managers typically do when they're targeting a specific pick.

Fantasy managers with picks in the top six may find themselves a bit indecisive when deciding which running back slots in after Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook, so in this ADP battle, we'll  look at Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry.

Alvin Kamara

Upside: Alvin Kamara has caught at least 81 passes in each of his four years in the league while posting at least 13 touchdowns and 1,500 total yards in three of those seasons, and he just turned 26, so he's still in his prime. With Michael Thomas (ankle) now expected to miss time during the regular season, Kamara is the centerpiece of the offense, and it's impossible to argue that happening based on the brilliance he's displayed on the field. Even though Latavius Murray will still mix in on early downs, Kamara is regularly on the field in the red zone, and he should continue to see work in most high-leverage situations.

Downside: Even though Kamara caught a career-high 83 passes last year, his production was drastically different when Drew Brees missed time with an injury. In seven of the first nine games of 2020 (with Brees), Kamara averaged 7.4 receptions for 72 yards, but from Week 11 on (after Brees was injured), he averaged 2.6 receptions for 18 yards. If Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston are unable to not only feed Kamara targets, but specifically, the high-quality targets that seamlessly lead him into open space, his numbers could disappoint. And as runner, Kamara has rarely seen more than 15 carries per game on a consistent basis, which could cap his rushing upside.

Ezekiel Elliott

Upside: Even though the Dallas offensive line was without players due to injury the entire season last year, when Dak Prescott was under center, Ezekiel Elliott averaged 25.7 PPR points per game, making him one of the top fantasy producers. And in those five games, he rushed for at least 89 yards three times with five scores, and he averaged 7.5 targets in the four full games that Prescott played. Even last year after Prescott was out for the year when Tony Pollard was being mixed in, Elliott played roughly 66 percent of the snaps, but with the line expected back healthy and Prescott on the field, look for Elliott to go back to elite usage. And although he's been in the league for five years, he's just 26, so there's no legitimate reason to expect his skills to be diminished.

Downside:  Once Prescott was placed on injured reserve last year, and the offensive line continued to lose players, Elliott only surpassed 89 rushing yards twice in the last 10 games with just a single rushing touchdown. If the line falls apart again, that could cause him some issues, as he's one of the best backs in the league at following his blocks and setting up defenders, and Pollard appeared to be better suited to creating positive runs that weren't blocked, so betting on Elliott is also betting that the line will at least be relatively healthy this year.

Derrick Henry

Upside: Not only has Derrick Henry averaged more than 1,900 scrimmage yards the last two years, but he's scored at least 17 times in each of those seasons, and although he may not have the ceiling of some of the top receiving backs, he has an incredible balance of floor and ceiling. He also could benefit from the Titans having a healthy A.J. Brown, and also having Julio Jones, as defenses will have to account for both, which could keep them from stacking the box regularly. It's also possible that with those receivers, that the Titans play in more three-receiver sets, which would force defenses to put an extra defensive back on the field and give Henry fewer defenders to run against.

Downside: Although Henry is just 27, many running backs begin a slight decline at that age. And there is almost no precedent for a player coming off of Henry's type of workload — more than 400 touches in each of the last two years, including playoffs. That Herculean workload could begin to take a toll on him.

Bottom line

Henry appears to be the safest of these three options, though he may not have the upside of Kamara and Elliott. But those backs might be reliant upon factors that are out of their control, where Henry seems less likely to face negative external factors.

The best blend of upside and floor might be Elliott, as he's on a high-volume offense, and opponents won't be able to key on stopping him because of the elite trio of receivers that Dallas has. With Prescott fully healthy to start the season, the Cowboys could rival the Chiefs as the most explosive offense in the league, and having Elliott and a runner and receiver would be a major part of that.

Although Kamara clearly has massive upside, the uncertainty at quarterback puts his potential as a receiver at risk, and based on what we saw at the end of last season, that downside that cannot be ignored.