ADP Battles: Jefferson vs. McCaffrey vs. Chase

Most fantasy managers draft with some type of cheat sheet. But let's face it, even players ordered in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll usually break down players at the same position because, typically, fantasy managers have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.

This week, we'll start at the top. A top-3 pick is always exciting. As recently as a couple years ago, Christian McCaffrey was the consensus No. 1 pick. But in 2020 and 2021, he missed significant time and burned fantasy managers. The most common players drafted at the top this year are Justin Jefferson, McCaffrey and Ja'Marr Chase. Let's take a closer look at each.

Justin Jefferson

Likely the safest of the top-3 options, Jefferson has an incredibly high floor and elite ceiling. A drawback is difficult to find.

Upside

• His yardage has increased each year, from 1,400 as a rookie to 1,616 to 1,809.
• Jefferson's targets also rose each year from 125 to 167 to 184.
• He's posted at least six 100-yard games each year.
• In each season, he's scored 7-10 touchdowns.

Downside

• This is mostly nitpicking. In his last two meaningful games last year, Jefferson caught one pass for 15 yards against the Packers and had seven catches for 47 yards in Vikings' wild-card loss to the Giants.

The Bottom Line

Even if Jefferson repeated his rookie season production, picking him No. 1 would be justified. Any production that resembled his second or third year would put him in contention as the highest-scoring fantasy player. The only reason the downside argument was listed above was that both the Packers and the Giants succeeded in selling out to stop Jefferson. The main reason for that was the Vikings lacked a No. 2 option that scared defenses enough to lighten the coverage on Jefferson. First-round pick Jordan Addison should change that scenario this season. Jefferson has the best blend of high-floor, high-ceiling of any wide receiver or running back.

Christian McCaffrey

Playing 17 games between Carolina and San Francisco last year, McCaffrey rushed for 1,139 yards and eight touchdowns and caught 85 passes for 741 yards and another five touchdowns. He's again in play as the first overall fantasy pick.

Upside

• In the four seasons he played every game, he posted at least 1,086 scrimmage yards, seven touchdowns and 80 receptions.
• McCaffrey scored 53 touchdowns in his last 59 games.
• The 49ers limited him to 14.4 rushing attempts per game but gave him 5.9 targets per game. Fewer rushing attempts helped keep him healthy.
• His usage with San Francisco gives him an excellent scoring floor.
• Coach Kyle Shanahan had a full offseason to create new ways to weaponize McCaffrey. He'll likely be positioned to make a high number of big plays.

Downside

• He played a full season last year for the first time since 2019. In 2020-21, he missed 23 of 33 games because of injuries.
• The 49ers have a number of weapons to feed — Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Elijah Mitchell.

The Bottom Line

 Although the injury history is relevant, the fact he played a full season last year should increase confidence in his durability. And while the 49ers have a number of weapons, McCaffrey is the  centerpiece of the offense as a major threat as a receiver as well as a weapon in the red zone. Those who want to start their drafts with a running back are unlikely to find a better option.

Ja'Marr Chase

Even though Chase is frequently the clear No. 3 pick in drafts, he has gone as high as No. 1. Going into his third season, he's probably yet to reach his peak. However, he didn't have the massive performances last year that he showed as a rookie.

Upside

• Chase has already done it. During his rookie year (2021), he posted 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns.
• In two seasons, he's averaged 5.8 receptions, 86 yards, 0.76 touchdowns and 9.4 targets.
• He posted at least 79 yards in seven of his last eight games.
• Chase also had at least 50 yards in all but one game last season.  
• In addition, he was targeted at least 10 times in nine of 12 games in 2022.

Downside

• He might not have the ridiculous upside he showed as a rookie. In 2021, when he had a pair of games with at least 200 yards. Facing more deep-safety looks last year, his highest yardage total was 132.
• Chase missed four games last year with a fractured hip.

The Bottom Line

After Chase torched the league as a rookie, defensive adjustments helped keep him from having week-winning performances, though he still had an amazing floor. It's possible the Bengals figure out a way to get him loose deep more often this year. If so, and Chase regains the efficiency he had in 2021, he could bounce back to the production we saw in his rookie year.  Also, with Tee Higgins playing across from him to keep defenses honest, and also having an elite quarterback in Joe Burrow, Chase couldn't be in a better situation. He is the clear No. 2 receiver on the board this year, but those who expect the big games of 2021 to return could make a case to put him ahead of Justin Jefferson.

The Final Word

If I'm on the clock at 1.01, I'm drafting Jefferson. He hasn't missed a game in three years. His usage and production the last two years has been incredible. And between him having a good quarterback while playing on a team that should have plenty of positive game script gives me enough reasons not hesitate. However, if I think I have to pick a running back in the first round, I'm willing to write off McCaffrey's two seasons lost to injury as bad luck. I also think he'll be used more efficiently than ever by Kyle Shanahan. That makes Chase my No. 3 pick — I'm not sure we're going to see the upside games that he showed as a rookie.