ADP Analysis: AFC West Players to Watch in 2023

Last week, I wrote about players to watch from the AFC North. This week, I'll move to the AFC West. I remember a discussion last offseason about whether this division would be the best in football. The excitement was off the charts with the Broncos acquiring Russell Wilson. The Raiders made their big splash by trading for Davante Adams. And while they didn't make a splashy offensive move, the Chargers made numerous additions to their defense. Meanwhile, the Chiefs unloaded Tyreek Hill and looked to be trending down. Of course, the one team that looked like it might take a step back dominated the division and won the Super Bowl. 

Here are my early observations of some key fantasy options playing in the AFC West.

Kansas City Chiefs

Isiah Pacheco 

Pacheco was overlooked by many fantasy players last year. That seemed wise at the time.  Pacheco looked like nothing more than a late-round dart by the Chiefs as a seventh-round pick. Against Patrick Mahomes, teams often had to load up on defensive backs to contain the Chiefs' passing attack. The obvious result was that the Chiefs faced a lot of light boxes. And with an offensive line that was very good at run blocking, Kansas City needed one particular thing from its running backs. That is to run decisively and downhill because there are few defenders ready to engage at the second level. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire not looking great and Ronald Jones apparently not impressing the coaches in preseason, Pacheco got his chance early. He was below average with a 25th-percentile broken-tackle rate and 40th-percentile yards after contact, but it didn't matter. By the time those factors came into play, he often had gained enough yardage to have done his job effectively. He was a useful fantasy option:

• He had just a single 100-yard rushing game.
• Pacheco surpassed 60 yards 11 times (including playoffs) 
• He also had four performances with more than 80 yards.
• However, he handled 15 or fewer rush attempts in 18 of 20 games.

I don't think the Chiefs will increase his workload significantly in 2023. With his aggressive running style, he takes a lot of big hits — the team would be smart to keep him fresh. That should mean he gets enough work to be productive, but not so many carries that he breaks down. Also, he'll likely continue to have an inconsistent role in the screen game. I will consider him in drafts once the top-20 RBs are off the board.

Los Angeles Chargers

Keenan Allen

Two stories made up Allen's age-30 season. The main story was the hamstring injury he suffered in Week 1. He played 44 snaps through Week 10. The second story was his performance upon his return. He was a PPR machine. Allen recorded at least 86 yards in six of his last nine games (including playoffs), and he didn't post fewer than 49 yards in that span. He was targeted nine or more times in six of his last seven games. In addition, his 8.4 yards per target was more than a full yard higher than each of his two prior seasons. Fantasy managers that made it through the missed games had an excellent fantasy performer the rest of the year:

• Allen missed seven games last year.
• He missed just three games the previous two seasons.
• His 43rd percentile yards after the catch was impressive for a player who thrived in the middle of the field.
• He was targeted at least six times in each of his last nine games.

Entering his age-31 season, his level of production isn't in question. But the concern is whether last year's hamstring injury was a sign of things to come, or if it was a random occurrence. From a production standpoint, he's still a top-18 receiver. But the risk due to age is worth considering. I won't draft him based on a ceiling projection. If he somehow falls outside the top-24 WRs, I'm interested. But I'm sure at least one person in most leagues will value him higher than that. It's unlikely I'll have many shares.

Mike Williams

Williams missed four games last year, but he had only missed three games in the previous four years, so he's been durable. Before suffering the ankle injury that sidelined him for a month, he was inconsistent. In the first six games, he posted 10-17 yards three times with 113-134 yards in the remaining games. However, his performance stabilized after he returned from injury Week 14. Down the stretch, he had 4-7 catches and 67-96 yards in four games. Basically, he went from being a boom-or-bust option early in the year to a high-floor, low-ceiling producer late: 

• He had a 73rd-percentile yards after the catch.
• He played in the slot on 46 percent of his snaps.

Justin Herbert had a career low YPA (6.8) with Joe Lombardi running the offense. With Lombardi gone and Kellen Moore arriving, there's hope Herbert will throw downfield more. If that's the case, that would benefit Williams. Although he doesn't win with speed, his size and athletic ability give him an advantage over most cornerbacks. And he could flirt with 120 targets, which would be enough for him to have a strong season. I'll draft him when he's available after 15, but before 20, WRs are off the board.

Las Vegas Raiders

Darren Waller

Waller was on the field for every game during the 2019 and 2020 seasons. Unfortunately, he missed six games in 2021 and another eight last year. Maybe the injuries were just coincidental, but entering his age-31 season, durability might be an issue. Fantasy managers will need to take a stance on his health. He also didn't have as many opportunities when he was healthy. The main reason might have been target-hog Davante Adams. Waller averaged 8-9 targets a game the previous two seasons, but fell to less than five with Adams on the team. While his efficiency per target/reception looked good, he wasn't as productive overall:

• Waller's 9.0 yards per target and 13.9 yards per reception were significant increases from his typical levels.
• His sixth-percentile yards after the catch was disappointing.
• However, his average depth of target was 100th percentile.
• He failed to reach 80 yards in a game

Waller's draft cost will be far less than it's been the last couple years, but he's best viewed as an upside option that carries significant risk based on his recent performance. If I miss out on the top-5 TEs, he is in the small group of players I'll targeting. And he could go two or more rounds after the second tier at his position, so the risk is lessened.

Denver Broncos

Jerry Jeudy

Jeudy was solid all last season, but his numbers spiked down the stretch. Was it a legitimate breakout, or did he run into a few favorable situations in which everything worked out perfectly? He had a three-TD game against the Chiefs, but most of his production came after Kansas City had a huge early lead. Week 16 against the Rams, when he had 117 yards, was against a defense that had been ravaged by injuries. Then in the season finale, he had 154 yards against a half-hearted Chargers team with little to play for. Otherwise, he produced 50-75 yards in most games despite  moderate target volume. In any event, he was an improved player in his third year:

• Jeudy played 70 percent of his snaps in the slot.
• He had an 85th-percentile yards after the catch rate.
• That helped him post 14 catches of at least 20 yards and five catches of at least 40 yards.
• He only surpassed 65 yards twice through Week 13.
• But he saw his targets increase — he had 8-10 targets in four of his last five games.

If he's available outside of the top-24 WRs in drafts, there's value because he could take another jump in production. But at that point in the draft, some of the risk that his late-season surge was a bit of a mirage is baked into the draft cost.