Aramco Japanese Grand Prix
Location: Suzuka, Japan
Circuit: Suzuka Circuitland
Course Length: 5.807
Laps: 53
Aramco Japanese Grand Prix Preview
Two races into the 2026 Formula 1 season has the Mercedes team looking very much the championship dominator as many were predicting prior to Melbourne. However, the team has not been bullet proof with George Russell suffering a scare in qualifying at China that nearly left him starting Sunday's race from the fifth row. Mechanical issues aside, overcoming the Ferrari starts has been one of the main keys to the two Mercedes wins so far. While The silver cars have long-run pace, Ferrari is lightning fast off the line and typically able to get in front in the opening laps. That could help improve their chances of upsetting the early order this week at the twisty Suzuka Circuit. This natural-terrain road course is more narrow with significant elevation changes that have historically kept passing relatively low. However, the new rules package has spiced up the action so far, and it will be interesting to see how it impacts the racing at the more traditional Suzuka. The last four races at the track were won from pole position by Max Verstappen with no winner starting from outside the first two rows since Fernando Alonso got his last win at the track in 2006.
Key Stats at Suzuka Circuitland
- Races: 35
- Winners from pole: 19
- Winners from top-5 starters: 32
- Winners from top-10 starters: 34
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 0
- Fastest race: 224.660kph
Previous 10 winners
2025 - Max Verstappen
2024 - Max Verstappen
2023- Max Verstappen
2022- Max Verstappen
2019 - Valtteri Bottas
2018- Lewis Hamilton
2017- Lewis Hamilton
2016- Nico Rosberg
2015 – Lewis Hamilton
2014 - Lewis Hamilton
Formula 1 returns to Suzuka this weekend, and it should be an interesting test of the season's new regulations. The track, with its flowing, high-commitment layout, could be even more enjoyable for drivers with the smaller and more nimble cars than in past seasons. The smaller cars are likely to require more commitment from drivers in the track's technical sections, while reduced overall downforce and active aero will place a premium on stability through the track's longer turns in its unique figure-eight layout. With less turbulence and moveable aerodynamics, cars may be able to follow more closely through the circuit's high-speed sections, potentially opening the door for overtaking in areas where it was more challenging in the past. The revised 2026 power units add another layer, as Suzuka's emphasis on sustained momentum and long acceleration zones will favor teams that manage electrical deployment efficiently on the long back straight out of the Spoon corner. Overall, Suzuka should be a place where the season's new rules could help to spice up the action, making chassis balance, power deployment strategy, and driver skill even bigger factors.
RotoWire Formula DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Aramco Japanese Grand Prix
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
George Russell - $14,000
Kimi Antonelli - $12,000
Lewis Hamilton - $11,400
Charles Leclerc - $11,000
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Max Verstappen - $10,400
Lando Norris - $9,000
Oscar Piastri - $8,000
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Isack Hadjar - $7,000
Oliver Bearman - $6,400
Pierre Gasly - $6,000
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Liam Lawson - $5,400
Nico Hulkenberg - $5,000
Esteban Ocon - $4,800
Optimal DraftKings Lineup for the Japanese Grand Prix
Captain – Charles Leclerc - $16,500
Oliver Bearman - $6,400
Franco Colapinto - $4,200
Gabriel Bortoleto - $4,000
Alex Albon - $3,800
Constructor – Mercedes - $15,000
The early dominance of Mercedes puts their prices for Japan in the stratosphere. Despite the premium price tags, the team can be selected as a constructor while offering room for some decent gambles in the mid-roster positions. Clearly Mercedes has an advantage over the other cars in the early days of this rule set. Choosing them as constructor gives this lineup access to the success of both drivers plus the double-podium finish most expect them to achieve this weekend.
Bringing the challenge to Mercedes is Ferrari, though. Lewis Hamilton got the upper hand in China, but Charles Leclerc is our choice here. He was the better of the pair in Australia, and he has been the more consistent of the two as Hamilton continues to find his way in the squad. Taking Leclerc as captain at Japan comes with a real chance of laps led and a podium finish, and if passing proves to be as challenging as ever at this track, Ferrari's start-line speed could even give him a chance at something more.
In the midfield, Oliver Bearman has been turning heads in the Haas. The English driver started 12th and finished seventh at Australia and then backed that race up by finishing fifth from the 10th starting position in China. While the team may still be a step behind McLaren and Red Bull in terms of outright pace, their reliability and consistent race pace makes them (and Bearman especially) a threat for points each week.
A driver quietly grabbing points when available is Franco Colapinto. The Alpine driver got his first of 2026 in China. He finished 14th at Australia, but improved from his starting position by two spots each race. The Alpine's consistent race pace puts their drivers into position to collect points even without attrition further up the field. Another day of smooth execution in Japan should have Colapinto in the mix for the top 10 again this week.
With limited budget remaining, some stretches are in order and Audi's Gabriel Bortoleto is one to consider. He did not get off the grid in China due to technical issues, and his Australia race was more management than it was fighting for position. Japan could be more like Australia since finding pace this early in the season on the other side of the world is going to be difficult. However, solving China's gremlins and just getting to the finish could be what fantasy players want from him. That picture could be even rosier if there is some attrition throughout the field, too.
The Williams challenger does not look like the most stable car in the field, but extracting the most from tricky cars has been Alex Albon's calling card. He will have his hands full on Suzuka's twisty layout, but if he and the team can avoid a disaster in qualifying, the race could be promising. Williams is still trying to find the right setup to keep the car handling its pace throughout a race, but that will improve with experience and Albon is the one who can make the most of it until the tides turn.
Formula 1 Best Bets for the Aramco Japanese Grand Prix
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:30 AM ET Thursday
Race Winner - Kimi Antonelli (+275)
Top-Six Finish - Oliver Bearman (+350)
Double Top-10 Finish - Haas (+200)
The Mercedes drivers are the odds-on favorites to win again at Japan. The question is, which one will it be? The obvious answer is George Russell considering his experience and consistent speed without mistakes. However, Kimi Antonelli showed last week that he has what it takes, too. While it might be asking a lot for the sophomore driver to win two races in a row, his odds are definitely the better bargain. Even Mercedes showed that it can have some reliability concerns with the all-new cars, and that is enough potential variability that I'd rather take positive over negative odds this early in the season and go with Antonelli over Russell.
A more confident bet this week could be Oliver Bearman to grab a top-six finish with his Haas. He was seventh in Australia and fifth in China, which shows even with a full complement of contenders, the Haas is fast enough to be be challenging for those top spots. A place like Suzuka should also suit Bearman, who has shown to be competent behind the wheel without overdriving the car. That kind of style should play well at Suzuka with these smaller and more nimble cars.
Building off of the Bearman perspective, the Haas car has been one of the fastest in the midfield battle so far this season. Bearman leads that charge, but Ocon isn't far behind. The Frenchman improved from 13th on the grid to finish 11th in Australia and basically held steady to where he started in China. If Ocon can qualify a row or two further forward this week at Suzuka, he stands a good chance of capitalizing through the race to finish closer to his teammate and within the top 10.
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