College Football Picks: Miami vs Ole Miss Best Bets
The Miami Hurricanes (12-2) and the Ole Miss Rebels (13-1) will clash in the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ. The game marks the first of two semifinal matchups for the College Football Playoff, and we've got you covered with the betting odds, plus our picks and predictions for how the game will shape up.
Miami enters familiar territory, as the storied program has seen its fair share of history in postseason success, while the Ole Miss Rebels are trying to reach the College Football Playoff Final after coming up short in a 38-25 loss to Penn State in last year's semifinal. Ole Miss' only loss came in a surprising defeat against Kentucky, while the Hurricanes fell to Ohio State and SMU in the regular season.
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Miami vs Ole Miss Betting Odds for the Fiesta Bowl
Spread: Miami -3 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Ole Miss +3.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 52.5 (Caesars Sportsbook), Under 52.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Miami -162 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Ole Miss +142 (BetMGM)
While the spread has remained mostly static, the projected total has bounced back and forth by one point throughout the week. Although some late Ole Miss money has narrowed the Monleyline gap somewhat, the books still place the Hurricanes as the favorite.
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Miami vs Ole Miss Betting Picks for the Fiesta Bowl
This game will come down to which team can best implement its style of football without much opposition.
The Hurricanes are built on solid fundamentals, employing one of the nation's best offensive lines, complemented by a staunch defense. Their scheme is a stark contrast to the Rebels, who employ a free-wheeling West Coast style and a defense that has shown a few cracks down the stretch. The Rebels finished a paltry 12th in the SEC in run defense, and we can readily expect that to be Miami's point of exploitation.
While no one can dispute Ole Miss's ability to put points on the board, the Hurricanes will aim to control the tempo with a dominant running game and keep the Rebels' offense on the sidelines. Although Miami's playoff selection was controversial, its defense has propelled the squad to this point, allowing only 17 points in the first two playoff games against Texas A&M and Ohio State.
The two quarterbacks in this matchup are also quite different from each other.
Carson Beck's passing numbers aren't great, but he's an effective game manager with an excellent football IQ. He's the first guy in the film room and the last to leave, and teammates have commented that Beck drills down to the most minute details of the game to maximize his effectiveness. There's no doubt that he'll figure out the best way to direct the offense.
Meanwhile, Trinidad Chambliss is a do-it-all dual threat who somehow managed to escape some terrifying situations against Georgia. Time after time, Chambliss made something out of nothing and powered the team to victory. Chambliss will try to find the same modicum of success, but succeeding against Miami will be a taller order.
If Chambliss can replicate his high-flying antics and the defense can force Beck into several third-and-long situations, the Rebels have a chance. Ultimately, Miami's resilient offensive line and oppressive pass rush will be Ole Miss' undoing.
Miami vs Ole Miss Expert Pick: Miami -3 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Miami vs Ole Miss Predictions for the Fiesta Bowl
Mark Fletcher helms Miami's run game, and his final total will be a good barometer of Miami's success or failure. As previously stated, the Rebels have had trouble containing elite running backs, and Miami's offensive line will be the team's toughest test of the season.
While the Rebels are too powerful offensively to have an off day, Miami will try to employ a methodical style behind Fletcher, and the run-dominated scheme will allow Beck to air out some surprise balls behind Ole Miss' secondary.
The Rebels have a skilled running back in Kewan Lacy, but the Miami run defense is among the best in the country, and they've consistently held the opposition to 100 yards or less on the ground. You can look at Miami's defensive success against Ohio State and Texas A&M to get a sense of what the Rebels are up against.
Reuben Bain and Akeem Mesidor are future first-round picks and form the best edge rushing tandem in the country. If anyone can keep Chambliss in check, it's this duo.
Although they'll cause some headaches, Chambliss has the benefit of an excellent wideout corps. Harrison Wallace, De'Zhaun Stribling and Cayden Lee could be Miami's stiffest challenge, and success with the 50/50 balls will be a critical metric to watch.
Miami's passing game will center around Beck's connections with Malachi Toney and CJ Daniels. We shouldn't expect much from Miami's passing attack, but Ole Miss' pass defense is probably the worst unit left in the bracket.
Score Prediction: 
Miami 27 - 
Ole Miss (Mississippi) 20
Miami vs Ole Miss Player Props for Fiesta Bowl
Carson Beck, QB, Miami - OVER 5.5 Rushing Yards (PrizePicks, Underdog)
Although Chambliss will steal headlines as the best scrambler, Beck is great at picking the right moments to break the play, and there will also be some run-designed snaps exclusively for Beck.
Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss UNDER 275.5 Passing Yards (FanDuel)
I predict that the luck will run out for Chambliss, and the tight windows he pierced against Georgia will be harder to find against the Hurricanes. The elite defense will limit his ability to read progressions and force him out of the pocket too many times.
