DraftKings College Football: Week 3

Welcome to our Week 3 breakdown of the DraftKings Main Slate. We've got 10 games, and even though we don't get the Arkansas State-Tulsa matchup with a 72.0 implied total (sigh), it's an interesting and varied slate with games to target and games to fade.

Fool's Gold?

Getting Hawaii on the main slate is a welcome sight, but it might not be as sweet of a setup as we would hope. A team averaging 48.3 points per game over three contests along with a 7.9 Yards Per Play clip is disorientating and appealing. I just worry about a bug zapper effect here. Hawaii's game against Army kicks off at 6:00 AM body clock time. We freak out about the Chargers playing a 10:00 AM body clock game every time they head east. This is so much worse. We also have Army's option offense to contend with, and that's a problem. Army's offense is the Run 'N Shoot's kryptonite; the Black Knights run the ball 80.1 percent of the time. If they can sustain drives and play keepaway, our Hawaii shares won't come close to reaching the value we'd hope they would.

Line Moves

Here's the notable line movement on this slate

Oklahoma has moved from -17.5 road favorites to -18.5
Army has moved from -5 to -7
Georgia Tech has moved from -2 road favorites to -3.5
Michigan has moved from -32 home favorites to -35.5

Below is a cheat sheet with the odds, implied points, and defensive metrics for every team and every game on the main slate. Beneath that table is the picks portion of the article.

Quarterback

Deondre Francois, Florida State ($8,700) at Syracuse

Florida State has looked shaky at best to start the Willie Taggart era, and you could easily point to that Week 1 box score against Virginia Tech, yell "THREE INTERCEPTIONS NO TOUCHDOWNS" at me and go on with your day. You could also note that Florida State almost lost at home to Samford. No argument from me, those are facts. But Francois' performance itself hasn't been the issue. The issue has been the offensive line, so if Syracuse had an above-average defensive front, I'd be nervous. Well, Syracuse has played two weak opponents and still ranks 70th in tackles for loss and 80th in sacks. Francois will have time to operate, which makes him dangerous and his talented receiving corps should be able to separate from Syracuse's shaky secondary. There's also the fact that this game has the highest implied total (68.0) on the slate, so this is a matchup to invest in.

Brett Rypien, Boise State ($8,500) at Oklahoma State

Rypien has been absolutely dominant through two weeks, completing 41 of 56 attempts for 667 yards (11.9 YPA) and seven touchdowns with no picks. If you're still hung up on the Rypien that was splitting time with Montell Cozart last season, *Bryan Colangelo voice* find a new slant. Oklahoma State hasn't given anything up through the air this season, but facing Southwest Missouri State and South Alabama doesn't exactly count as being battle tested. Look for Boise State to be pushed into throwing it plenty Saturday, and with the way Rypien is clicking with his receivers right now, he'll return value.

Superflex QB: Woody Barrett, Kent State ($4,800) at Penn State

The Flashes are massive underdogs on the road here and I highly doubt they put a scare into Penn State the way Appalachian State did in Week 1. However, at just $4,800 on a relatively small main slate, Barrett is worth superflex consideration here. Not only is Barrett cheap, he's a massive part of the Kent State offense. He averages 34.0 pass attempts per game (34th-most in FBS) and also leads the team in rushing attempts. At $4,800, he's cheaper than Justice Hanson was against Alabama last week, and he has a better matchup. Barrett is a great superflex option this week that frees up some cash to pay up at a different position.

Running Back

Jordan Mason, Georgia Tech ($5,600) at Pitt

It's not the ideal discount, but $5,600 for a starting B-back in the Georgia Tech offense is a strong value nonetheless. Mason filled in ably for the injured KirVonte Benson (knee) last week against South Florida, taking 13 carries for 95 yards. The rub, as always in an option offense, is a goal line opportunity getting poached by the quarterback. Still, Mason is the frontrunner for carries here and draws a matchup against a Pitt defense that was gashed for 6.39 yards per carry last week against Penn State. Sure, Penn State's inclusion here is a little Apples-To-Oranges-y, but Pitt knew the run was coming last week and still couldn't stop it. Look at Mason as a very safe mid-tier option with decent upside Saturday.

Karan Higdon, Michigan ($8,600) vs. SMU

He's the second-most expensive (healthy) running back this week, and with good reason. Higdon took advantage of a soft matchup last week to the tune of 13 carries for 156 yards (12.0 YPC) and a touchdown. There's a similar blowout possibility this week with an SMU team that might be the worst non-Sun Belt squad in the country. With that, it's tough to envision Higdon getting 20-plus carries. What can he do with 15 carries against SMU, though? I'd say a lot. The blowout context and Michigan's deep running back rotation ought to keep Higdon's ownership down enough to make him a tournament consideration.

Wide Receiver

John Ursua, Hawaii ($8,100) at Army

Like I mentioned above, finally getting Hawaii on a slate but in this situation is frustrating. Body clock issues plus a possession-based, ground-game focused Army team could lead to a sluggish Hawaii team that might not reach its normal play count. Even with those factors working against him, Ursua averages 13.3 targets per game and converts that into 8.7 catches for 141.0 yards. The clock drain put on by Army is a concern, but not enough to move me off Ursua at a discounted price in a PPR format.

D.J. Matthews, Florida State ($3,500) at Syracuse

Matthews is moving into the starting lineup Saturday after converting his eight targets into five grabs for 32 yards against Samford. Now, those aren't impressive numbers, but I'm following the volume here. Eight targets against Syracuse on a fast track in the dome would be an ideal scenario, and while you can't bank on that specific outcome, it's fair to expect Matthews to have a bigger role than any other receiver in that $3,500-and-under price range. And as I've said, I'm in on the Florida State offense this week, so getting a near-minimum priced piece of that system is a good way to save cap space and give yourself a bit of upside.

Sean Riley, Syracuse ($4,800) vs. Florida State

Riley led Syracuse in targets last week against Wagner. This could mean a couple of things. 1.) Riley managed to get more involved in the offense than he did in the opener despite Devin C. Butler coming back, which bodes well for Riley. 2.) He saw all those targets because Syracuse didn't need to keep Jamal Custis and Butler out there in a blowout. Well, I'm torn, but I'll take the optimist's view here. Riley will have a starting role in the highest-scoring, most up-tempo game on this main slate. Even if Custis and Butler are featured, Syracuse will throw enough to get Riley involved as well. There's value to be had from a 'Cuse receiver in a PPR format and Riley fits the bill.

Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State ($6,100) vs. Boise State

This game is tied for the second-highest Over/Under on the slate at 64.0, and is should be a well-fought game from both sides. The high implied total plus the narrow spread means the starters should be playing all four quarters here, and that's good news for Wallace. Through two games, Wallace has garnered 29 percent of Oklahoma State's targets while no one else has seen more than 17 percent. He's converted that into 9.7 YPT and has scored in each game. The price at $6,100 is very affordable for a top-flight receiver in the Oklahoma State offense even though Boise State has one of the toughest defenses the 'Pokes will face this season. Follow the volume. Go Wallace.