College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 8

CHRIS' PICKS

Welp, the unimaginable happened last week and it turns out the only sentence I wrote with any meaning was the first of the column; "let the fading begin." I didn't even imagine going 0-for-5 was possible, but I'm apparently becoming adept at making the impossible happen.  

So this week, I feel like I'm playing with house money. Keep struggling, and readers can keep fading with confidence. Or maybe a blind squirrel finds a nut and we go in a complete opposite direction from last week. Seems like I can't lose. Or at least not lose as much! 

A few observations on lines before diving in to some picks. I like Virginia Tech Thursday night, but would be happy to provide a reverse jinx and allow my Hurricanes to pick up a win. But Miami's offensive line is awful, and I don't see how Miami can find any consistent offense. And with the 'Canes missing at least two defensive linemen, there lack of depth will show.  

South Carolina's quarterback situation is unsettled at best, with freshman Jake Bentley possibly having his redshirt pulled. But the Gamecocks are dead last in FBS in scoring at 14.0 points per game and have scored 20 points just once this season, yet they are listed as 21 point favorites against UMass, who was surprisingly competitive against Florida and Mississippi State already this season. Something doesn't seen right with this one …

Now, on to this week's plays. 

Over 87.5 Oregon at California (Friday) 

This is an awfully high total, hovering near the highest on record (Texas Tech/Baylor last year set that mark at 90.5, and went over.) In six games, the Golden Bears have seen finals top 90 points three times and 80 in two others, so this very well could come down to the last possession. Oregon has allowed 121 points in its last two games, and while I'm a little worried about Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert making the first road start of his career, the Ducks still shouldn't have a problem getting to 35-40 points, and it would be surprising to see Cal held under 50, setting this up for a game where each team will score virtually at will. 

Minnesota (-17.5) vs. Rutgers 

Rutgers is arguably the worst Power 5 team around, and four of its five losses have come by at least 17 points, including last week at home against a limited Illinois squad. Rutgers also ranks 123rd nationally against the run, allowing 263.7 yards per game, which happens to be the Gophers' strength. Minnesota averages 207.3 yards per game, ranking 35th nationally, a number it's bettered four times in six games. Minnesota's 35th-ranked defense provides me some confidence here against a Scarlett Knights offense that has scored 14 total points in four Big Ten games.
 
North Carolina (-8) at Virginia  

North Carolina probably should have won at Miami last week by more than seven points, but got its offensive mojo going again with Mitch Trubisky completing 71.7 percent of his passes. The Cavaliers gave up 45 to Pittsburgh last week and have allowed at least 35 points in four of six games. Virginia can attack deep, and will get its share of points, but I don't see it stopping North Carolina enough to keep this at a one-score game through four quarters. 

Michigan State (-2.5) at Maryland 

With four straight losses and injuries galore, you can argue that Sparty has checked out on the season. With Ohio State and Michigan still on the schedule, Michigan State has to win this game to keep its faint bowl hopes alive. The Spartans haven't lost five straight in a season since 1991, and get a Maryland team that has allowed 601 yards on the ground in its last two games. Perhaps that can get MSU's struggling run game going, keep the Spartans' defense on the sideline, and allow it to grind out a road win. 

Oklahoma (-14) at Texas Tech 

I've taken Texas Tech two weeks in a row, and as a result, have seen how absolutely awful its defense is. Kansas and Stephen F. Austin are the only opponents the Red Raiders have held to less than 44 points. Meanwhile, the Sooners have righted the ship after a 1-2 start, winning three consecutive conference games while averaging 45.0 points. They have one of the worst pass defenses statistically, but they at least have a pulse. The Sooners can't afford to drop a game between now and a Nov. 12 showdown with Baylor, and I like them to get at least a few turnovers to halt the Air Raid offense in route to a comfortable road win. 
 
Last week: 0-5; Season 4-12-1  
 
GREG's PICKS


Back on track after a winning session last week. While I'll take the 4-3 record, I was hoping for something a little better after starting the day 4-1. There's something about starting the day well that always makes a strong night session almost impossible.

While there's no rational explanation outside the always popular, "Even Steven" theory, there certainly seems to be some force that knocks be back a peg or two once I start well. Something to keep in mind if I happen to get off to a hot start again this week.

Quick recap on last week's games. The Virginia Tech pick was easily the worst of the week, maybe of the year. I scored a nice double on the Minnesota game. Rutgers continues to be historically bad, I plan to stay on that train until it derails. The Tulsa-Houston game was painfully close to going over -- a matter of inches actually. Onto this week …



Virginia Tech (-6.5) vs. Miami



Both of these teams struggled last week, but only the Hokies were embarrassed. Fortunately, they have a home game on a short week to cure what ails them. Miami has lost two in a row, and it's now time to wonder how good the Hurricanes are. Their best win came at home to Georgia Tech, and although they were game against FSU and North Carolina, they found a way to lose both. Virginia Tech is certainly no beast itself, but the Hokies are good enough to win by a score, at home, five days after losing a game as a 20-point favorite.



Under 87.5 Oregon at California



A couple high-powered offenses are set to tangle in Berkley this week and as such, the total is outrageously high. In fact, I'm not sure I've ever seen a total this high before. While it's well deserved, part of me thinks that a correction is coming for one, if not both, of these teams. In order for this game to go over the total, both teams would have to play extremely well on offense and extremely poor on defense. With a plethora of corrections to make for both defensive coordinators, I expect one to improve its respective units and play, at minimum, adequately. 



Minnesota (-17.5) vs. Rutgers



I could detail how bad Rutgers is in this space, but chances are, you already know. The only question that needs to be asked on a given week is – is the opponent competent? While the Gophers have underperformed most of the season, they are at least competent and as such, should handle a hapless Rutgers squad this week. Minnesota may have turned a corner last week with a nice road-win. We'll see how they handle success this week against an inferior opponent.



Northwestern (-1.5) vs. Indiana

Both of these teams have shown improvement the last couple weeks, and although Indiana is getting most of the praise for its improvement, I think Northwestern has actually taken bigger steps. For as improved as Indiana appears, the Hoosiers don't have any more wins to show for it, just a couple of decent losses (if there is such a thing). The Wildcats, however, put a whooping on MSU last week and while the Spartans are having a down year, it was still impressive.


Over 58.5 Texas A&M at Alabama



Alabama seems to be on mission this season, steamrolling every rolling opponent in sight. In step the Aggies this week, possibly the Tide's toughest opponent to date. While I'm not willing to take the points, I do expect the Aggies to score enough this week to put this game over the total. No team is capable of slowing the Tide offense, so they should definitely keep up their end of the bargain this week. 



Iowa (+3) vs. Wisconsin



Wisconsin has proven a tough beat this season, and while I think the Badgers are the better team in this match-up, the timing couldn't be worse. They are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Buckeyes, the second tough loss against a top-tier Big Ten opponent this season, and it just might be too much to recover from at this point. Don't get me wrong, they aren't going to throw in the towel, but the Badgers likely left a lot on the field last week and seven days might not be enough recovery time against a Hawkeyes team that seems to have found it's footing.



Last Week: 4-3; Season: 9-11