College Football DFS: CFP Semifinal on DraftKings and FanDuel

CFB DFS: College Football Playoff Semifinals Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel

The College Football Playoff Semifinals are here, and we've got a pair of great games stretched out over Thursday and Friday. My beloved 'Dawgs met their maker at the hands of the red-hot Rebs, so from here on out, I'm just focused on CFB DFS and hoping for an entertaining final three games to round out the season.

This article will be a little different than usual in that I'm covering both DraftKings and FanDuel's CFP Semifinal slates. The core will be the same, but I'll do my best to highlight some of the best values that are unique to one site or the other. 

It's also just a two-game slate, so I'll try to unpack some strategy and project some plays that might help differentiate your lineups.

Slate Overview

• Both games have fairly tight spreads with Indiana and Miami checking in as 3.5-point favorites against Oregon and Mississippi, respectively. 
• Ole Miss-Miami has the higher total (52.5) while Indiana-Oregon checks in at 47.5.
• Implied totals, in order: Miami (28), Indiana (25.5), Ole Miss (24.5), Oregon (22.0)

Ole Miss vs Miami (-3.5)

Miami has gotten here with incredible play from the trenches, running the ball, and timely third-down conversions. The 'Canes have reduced Carson Beck to a bit of a caretaker role; he's 33 for 46 for 241 yards and two touchdowns through two playoff games. 

The question is, will that same formula work against Ole Miss? I think Miami will be forced to have Beck play a bigger role, and the wideouts will be more involved by extension. Miami likely wants to keep with what's gotten them here, but Ole Miss' offense is one that might force the issue. 

Miami got after both Marcel Reed to the tune of seven sacks and followed it up with five sacks on Julian Sayin. A&M had allowed 12 sacks before that game; Ohio State had allowed 11 in 13 games before that game. Ole Miss has allowed just 18 sacks in 14 games, so this becomes a huge inflection point in this game. The Rebs' o-line has held up all year and kept Trinidad Chambliss clean against Georgia to the tune of zero sacks. 

Chambliss, with time to throw, is playing on another level right now. Miami won't be able to just park the bus if Ole Miss is cooking on offense. Beck is going to need to step up. 

Indiana (-3.5) vs Oregon

A rematch of an instant classic from this past fall when Indiana made a statement by going into Eugene and beating Oregon 30-20. IU is rocket-hot right now, having just beaten Ohio State in the B1G championship and following it up by handing Alabama its worst loss since 1998. Crazy times we're living in. 

FEI has IU and Oregon rated as its top two teams, giving this game a de facto National Championship feel. Indiana ranks No.3 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per those metrics while Oregon's offense ranks second and the defense ranks ninth.

Oregon is going to need more out of its passing game than it got against Texas Tech. If its receivers are closer to 100%, that could give the Ducks offense a different look than we've seen over the last two months. 

Indiana is keyed by its Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, Fernando Mendoza. Oregon held him in check, relatively speaking, in the first matchup. He completed 20 of 31 passes for 215 yards with one touchdown and a pick-six. Mendoza will need to take care of the ball considering Oregon's ball-hawking secondary. There's reason to believe he'll raise his game here, though. He was great against Ohio State and absolutely surgical against the Crimson Tide. 

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CFB DFS Quarterbacks

Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (DK $7,600; FD $10,600)

Chambliss takes up 15.2% of your cap on DraftKings and 17% of your cap on FanDuel. That's plenty worth it. Chambliss is the element that makes everything go for Ole Miss. He's been printing points all year (28.9 DK Pts/G since Week 3) and was extremely sharp against Georgia's defense last week. 

This offense goes at a lightning pace, averaging 74.2 plays per game. That ranks second in FBS. It's also balanced with a 46/54 pass/run split. That results in tons of opportunities for Chambliss. He's effective as a runner but hasn't been running as much of late with just 18 attempts in his last three games. He is chucking it, though. He's throwing it 31 times per game vs Power 4 competition. He's had at least 34 attempts in three of his last four games as well.

You worry about Miami flushing him out of the pocket and sacking him, but the game script sets up so well for Chambliss to have so many opportunities Thursday. He'll be hard to fade.

Other Options

Obviously, there are just four starters on the slate. It might be a slate to fade QB in your Superflex if you like the skill options better. I think that Mendoza-Chambliss will be the most popular QB pairing. Carson Beck is an interesting play, though. If Miami is forced to open up the offense more, he'll push for 30 pass attempts. Miami does have the highest implied total on the slate, after all...

CFB DFS Running Backs

Mark Fletcher, Miami ($6,600 DK, $8,500 FD)

Fletcher has been the main reason for Miami's success on offense during these playoffs. I made the case for Beck being more involved against Ole Miss, but Fletcher has to be Plan A for the Miami offense until the Rebs show they can stop him.

Ole Miss bottled up Georgia's run game in the quarterfinals, but you could also argue Georgia got cute with its running back rotation and didn't feed Nate Frazier enough. (Sorry, I can't help little Georgia rants here and there.) Miami doesn't have that problem. Fletcher has proven to be the guy. He has rushing shares of 61% and 51% through two playoff games, racking up a combined 36 carries for 262 yards in those outings. He also caught a pair of targets for 25 and a score vs. Ohio State. 

Ole Miss ranks just 65th against the rush after last week. The run game has been huge for Miami and Fletcher has been at the forefront. Look for him to get plenty of shots here as Miami looks to #EstablishIt early and keep Ole Miss' high octane offense on the sidelines.

Noah Whittington ($6,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel) and Dierre Hill ($4,300 DK, $5,500 FD), Oregon

The Jordon Davison injury alters the Oregon backfield projection pretty significantly. Now, Whittington has been the leader of the backfield all season with a 28% rushing share. However, at a compact 5-8, 203, he drew just 16 of his 129 carries in the red zone. Davison, at 236 pounds, had 31 such carries and punched in 14 scores on those. That's objectively going to be hard for Oregon to replace, and while there will likely be an expectation from drafters that Whittington simply picks up the slack, I think the Ducks will try to make up for it with Hill.

Hill has been the No.3 back all year and thrived in that role, taking 70 carries for 570 yards (8.1 YPC, 5 TD). He's actually got a leaner frame than Whittington at 5-11, 205, but it wouldn't be shocking to see him pick up additional short-yardage and red zone work. 

Furthermore, Jayden Limar just hit the transfer portal on Tuesday, so this is easily the most stratified the Ducks' backfield has been all season. It's Whittington and it's Hill, both on bargain prices due to recent events after pricing came out. 

It's a tough matchup for both, don't get me wrong, but Oregon is a run-oriented offense (57%) and these two should combine for ~30 touches. 

CFB DFS Wide Receivers

Getting receiver right may well be the key to this slate. There are only two games and, by extension, a small number of viable QB and RB combos. Receiver, though. That's where you can separate yourself from the pack. 

Here's my breakdown of each team's pass-catchers

Ole Miss

Mississippi might have the best passing game projection. The problem is: the Rebels spread the ball around more than anyone else, too. Five players have target shares between 11.6% and 21.2% over the last four games. And they're right to do it. All of Harrison Wallace, De'Zhaun Stribling, Cayden Lee, Deuce Alexander and Dae'Quan Wright are weapons that cause different types of matchup problems. 

Recency bias would steer you to Wallace ($5,100/$8,000) and Stribling ($4,900/$7,700) coming off their massive games against Georgia. They're good plays, but it's important to remember they'll be popular. Alexander ($3,800/$6,100), Wright ($4,100/$5,400) are my favorite pivots/additional Ole Miss players to target outside of those top two. Which, of cours,e means it'll be Cayden Lee with the monster game.

Here's this week's target cheat sheet. I filtered it to receivers on this slate with at least an 10% team target share. I also narrowed the sample to Week 12 onward get a healthy sample while also giving weight to players who are clicking right now. Those are fairly arbitrary thresholds, but they still tend to paint a good picture of who is A.) Getting Volume and B.) Maximizing It.

Miami

Malachi Toney is an interesting subject this week. He's the top-billed wideout at both shops, but we're looking at a bargain salary relative to the norm where he takes up about 15% of your cap. If you're of the belief that Miami will have to throw it more Thursday, a bounce-back from Toney would make sense. He's still largely dominating the target share even if the efficiency has waned in the CFP. I think he's a good value on this slate, though he'll likely still be chalky based on his overall body of work and Miami's slate-leading team total.

Oregon

With Oregon, we keep waiting for that group of star receivers to shine. Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant and Evan Stewart all battled injuries this season and though Moore and Bryant were available against Texas Tech, neither did much. I wouldn't count on them in this spot either, really. 

Kenyon Sadiq ($5,200/$6,100) will be the main Oregon pass-catcher rostered in all likelihood. He's a mismatch and future high draft pick. However, Malik Benson is catching my attention. Benson ($4,800/$7,000) has a 16.8 percent target share (2nd on the team) and a ridiculous 15.6 YPT figure over his last five games. He's a big play waiting to happen and could return value for you on just a few catches.

I also like Jamari Johnson ($4,000/$5,700), the other Oregon tight end. He led all Ducks receivers in receiving yards (66) against Texas Tech. He's 6-5 and 257, and if Indiana is expending a lot of resources bracketing Sadiq, Johnson can make the Hoosiers pay. 

Indiana

For Indiana, Elijah Sarratt ($6,000/$9,200) and Omar Cooper ($5,500/$8,400) have been the big dogs all year. Charlie Becker ($4,200/$6,300), though, has been Mr. Big Play. As you can see, FanDuel has him priced above Cooper. I'm not sure what to make of what that will do to both players' roster percentage, but it's notable. 

Becker lags in target share (~11%) relative to Cooper and Sarratt but is easily the most explosive player on a per-target (14.9) basis on this slate among wideouts with at least 30 targets on the year. That combo of low target share and high output makes Becker a little more appealing on FanDuel's scoring system, whereas Cooper and Sarratt have higher floors in PPR scoring.

That's all a long preamble to giving out my favorite pass-catching options for this slate.

Cash Game/Core Plays (DK pricing/FD Pricing)

• De'Zhan Stribling, Ole Miss ($4,900/$7,700)
• Harrison Wallace, Ole Miss ($5,100/$8,000)
• Elijah Sarratt, IU ($6,000/$9,200)
•  Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon($5,200/$6,100)
• Malachi Toney, Miami ($6,400/$9,500)
• Malik Benson, Oregon ($4,800/$7,000)

GPP/Bargains/Low-Roster % Plays

• Charlie Becker, IU ($4,200/$6,300)
• Dae'Quan Wright, Ole Miss ($4,100/$5,400)
• Keelan Marion, Miami ($3,800/$5,700)
• Joshisa Trader, Miami ($3,400 /$4,900)
• Jamari Johnson, Oregon ($4,000/$5,700)