This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Birmingham Bowl Picks: Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt
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An ACC/SEC showdown awaits Friday afternoon in Birmingham, where 7-5 Georgia Tech takes on 6-6 Vanderbilt. The Yellow Jackets went 5-6-1 ATS during the regular season (2-2-1 as a favorite) while the total went over the closing line just four times. Vanderbilt went 8-4 ATS (7-2 as an underdog) while the over hit at a 6-5-1 rate, though their games went under in five of the final seven games.
Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt Birmingham Bowl Odds
Spread: Georgia Tech -2.5 ( -110 Caesars Sportsbook), Vanderbilt +3 (-112 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 51.0 (-110 Caesars Sportsbook), Under 51.5 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Georgia Tech -140 (BetMGM Sportsbook), Vanderbilt +125 (ESPN Bet)
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We'll start with the total, as it's seen the most stark movement. It opened at 54.5 and then steadily declined over the last week plus. As of Tuesday afternoon, it was almost universally available at 51.5 and now has ticked down to 51.0 across multiple sites.
The spread has danced throughout pre-game betting, opening at Georgia Tech (-3), briefly falling to (-2) and now trending back upward. It's almost 50/50 across books between (-2.5) and (-3) as of Wednesday afternoon. Most books will allow for alternative lines, and I'd be in favor of even the slightest reduced odds if you're backing the Jackets, and/or moving it to (+3.5) for the Commodores just for a little perceived security.
The moneyline odds are at their widest disparity of the week, with most books showing the Jackets at (-140) or greater, while Vanderbilt has gone from (+110) to (+120) or greater.
Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt Birmingham Bowl Betting Picks
We have to start with who's in and who's out. Both teams will have their starting quarterback in Haynes King and Diego Pavia. The Jackets lost more to the portal, including WR Eric Singleton, starting LT Corey Robinson, plus two defensive starters. Vanderbilt will be down a tackle in Gunnar Hansen.
Looking at the trends in the intro, the easy thought is Vanderbilt plus the points and the under. Vanderbilt isn't a particularly high-scoring team, topping 17 just once in their last four. But it's not where my head is at. The continued downward movement in the total has me significantly leaning towards the over. I think both of these teams are interested in playing and we'll get their best in a back and forth outing.
But ultimately, I'm backing the Yellow Jackets. Their run defense was fantastic all season, ranking 31st in the nation. Plus they have had time to prepare for Pavia and the wrinkles Vandy will throw at them. The Commodores magic seemed to run out in October, and they won't find it again to close the season.
Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt Best Bet: Georgia Tech -2.5 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
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Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt Birmingham Bowl Predictions
Vanderbilt has a sound run defense as well, ranking 45th in yards allowed per game. However they wilted down the stretch in their three-game losing streak, allowing 634 yards to South Carolina, LSU and Tennessee combined. Georgia Tech's offense was hamstrung by injury mid-season, but King, along with running back Jamal Haynes should be healthy here. Hayes rushed for 91 yards on 13 carries against a better front in Georgia, where the Jackets put up 42 points. I expect they'll again use him creatively in the pass game too without Singleton available at receiver.
Vanderbilt will find ways to score, they seemingly have all season. But that required a lot of good breaks, as their first 14 points against Tennessee came on a kickoff return and a short field following a fumble. I believe Georgia Tech is the better team, and barring any last-minute depletion to their depth chart, they'll find more success on both sides of the ball than the Commodores.
Georgia Tech 28-24
