March Madness Final Four: Connecticut vs. Illinois Game Picks & Predictions
Matchup: A rematch from November 28th awaits as the appetizer for the highly anticipated Arizona - Michigan matchup Saturday night. Illinois will look to avenge that early 74-61 defeat with much higher stakes. The Illini come in as slight (-2.5) favorites, which seems to be rising as I believe I saw them lined at (1.5) as of early Monday morning. The total is a low 138.5. Given that there's some familiarity between the sides, there's no reason not to expect a close, back-and-forth game.
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Connecticut Huskies, East Region No. 2 Seed
Backcourt: For the tournament at least, this has been more of a depth situation than a consistent production situation. Silas Demary will be another week removed from the ankle injury that cost him the opening game against Furman. Even so, he hasn't been himself in a while, posting just three double-digit scoring games in his last 10, averaging just 7.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.3 steals -- all below season norms.
Solo Ball hasn't been much better, reaching double-figures in just seven of his last 16 while shooting 35.5 percent. At worst, the juniors give the Huskies experience. UConn gets additional shooting on the wing from Sunday's hero Braylon Mullins. The freshman, too, has been inconsistent, attempting the second-most three-pointers on the team but converting only the third-most. If anyone is to shoot the Huskies into Monday with a hot streak, he'd be a decent choice.
Senior Malachi Smith can spell Demary or Ball and showed to be quite a capable distributor when Demary was sidelined, though he's not much of a shooter.
Frontcourt: Experience reigns supreme here. Senior Tarris Reed has dominated throughout the tournament, averaging 21.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.3 blocks across 32.5 minutes. That's up more than five minutes from his regular-season average, and the added court time has paid off, as Reed has managed to stay out of foul trouble. There's not much size behind him/off the bench, which could be a factor against Illinois' long and deep forward group. Reed is joined by senior Alex Karaban, giving the Huskies a typically reliable 3-point shooter and avid slasher without the ball. He struggled mightily against Duke but was rounding into postseason form in three games prior and has a plethora of games of this magnitude already under his belt. Jayden Ross can spell either forward if the Huskies want to go small. He plays 15-20 minutes nightly but doesn't often produce counting stats.
X-Factor: Alex Karaban. All the teams here are full of veterans, which seems like an annual trend, but few can boast a third Final Four in four seasons. That said, Karaban hasn't shined in these big moments. He went 4-for-13 during UConn's final two games in 2022 (6.5 points, 7.0 rebounds) and 6-for-13 in 2023 (9.5 points, 7.5 rebounds). Illinois has the size to combat Reed, and potentially bother Karaban like the Blue Devils did via length. With the inconsistencies in the backcourt, it's difficult to see the Huskies winning if their senior leader doesn't step up. He averaged 22.0 points and 5.0 rebounds on 54.5 percent shooting in three games leading up to the Elite Eight.
Who They Beat to Get Here:
Furman 82-71
UCLA 73-57
Michigan State 67-63
Duke 73-72
Connecticut Will Win IF: They out-rebound Illinois. We noted this last week, so it's a familiar story. Illinois has the most efficient offense in the country, in part due to ranking third in offensive rebounds, leading to stickback buckets. UConn ranks just 87th nationally in defensive offensive-rebounding rate. The Huskies have to limit the Illini to one shot on that end, while also generating their own second-chance opportunities given their sporadic outside shooting.
Final Four Prediction
I said it in the Sweet 16 preview, but didn't follow through on it. Bet against Dan Hurley in March at your own risk. The Huskies proved they don't need a great shooting night to survive, going just 5-23 from 3-point range and still beating Duke. Illinois deserves to be here, but they did have a soft path, beating No. 11 VCU in the Round of 32 and No. 9 Iowa in the Elite 8. 38.3 percent (29th) of their scoring comes from 3-pointers, and 49.8 percent (15th) of their attempts are from deep. That scares me enough when shooting sight lines come into play as we move into a football stadium. Pair that with UConn holding the Illini to 6-of-29 from beyond the arc in the earlier matchup, while allowing just a 30.7 percent three-point rate (30th), and I think the Huskies somehow find a way.
--Written by Chris Bennett
Matchup: The Big Ten was far and away the top conference in the country this season, so it should come as no surprise that half of the Final Four comes from the conference. The fact that the second school behind Michigan is Illinois, though, may come as a mild surprise. With others touting Michigan State, Purdue or even Nebraska, the Illini won every game in the South region by double-digits en route to the program's first Final Four since 2005.
Illinois will face UConn in its Final Four matchup, as the Huskies mounted a furious comeback capped by a crucial Duke turnover by Cayden Boozer, and a remarkable three-pointer by Connecticut freshman Braylon Mullins that will be replayed for years to come. Coach Danny Hurley has led his school to the Final Four in three of the last four seasons.
With the matchup set, let's take a closer look at the respective squads and their strengths and weaknesses.
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Illinois Fighting Illini, South Region No. 3 seed
Backcourt: Illinois is paced by sensational freshman point guard Keaton Wagler, who leads the squad in scoring as well as assists. The uber-talented 6-6 freshman is also shooting over 40 percent from three-point land. He is joined in the backcourt by experienced senior Kylan Boswell, who is fourth on the team in scoring and second in dishing. Sixth man extraordinaire Andrej Stojakovic has been dynamite off the bench, averaging 17 points over the last three tilts.
Frontcourt: Rebounding is a huge strength for the Illini due to their massive size on the front line. The Ivisic twins are a pair of seven-foot behemoths who essentially rotate for each other in and out of the game. Tomislav Ivisic has proven a more capable scorer than his younger brother Zvonimir Ivisic, but the siblings take up a massive amount of space in the middle of the floor. Meanwhile, the top player on the front line might be freshman David Mirkovic, who averaged 8.1 rebounds to lead the squad during the season, along with 13.5 points as well. The long flowing locks of Jake Davis, and senior Ben Humrichous, round out the strong frontcourt for Illinois.
X-Factor: Andrej Stojakovic. Stojakovic began the season as a starter, but struggled during the middle of the season to find his footing. A subsequent move to the bench following an ankle injury appears to have lit a fire under Stojakovic, who has provided instant offense off the bench during the tournament. Stojakovic is shooting nearly 54 percent from the field since becoming a reserve. Peja's son seems to have found a home as a dynamic Sixth man in this potent offense.
Who They Beat to Get Here:
Pennsylvania, 105-70
VCU, 76-55
Houston, 65-55
Iowa, 71-59
UConn Will Win IF: they continue to play suffocating defense. Considered more of an offensive juggernaut heading into the tournament, Illinois has held the opposition to under 60 points in each of its last three victories. Moreover, the opposition has been held to under 38% shooting in each of those contests. Winning the rebounding battle decidedly has also aided the Illini in limiting easy buckets and second-chance opportunities for their opponents.
Final Four Prediction
These teams played earlier this season, with UConn dispatching of Illinois by a score of 74-61. Both teams are much different since that late November battle; Wagler had arguably his worst game of the season in that contest with only three points and one assist in a puzzlingly limited 14 minutes.
Connecticut's Tarris Reed may be better than any frontcourt player for the Illini, though the Huskies were still out-rebounded by Duke in their epic Elite 8 clash. Illinois will have to take advantage of its overall size advantage, because Connecticut is far deeper in the backcourt. Meanwhile, UConn won the rebounding category in the first matchup with the Illini. This may not be the most talented of the Final Four teams that UConn has had in recent seasons, but this group is experienced, gutsy and battle-tested. Given the defensive acumen of both squads right now, expect a low scoring affair. In March (or April), it just feels like Danny Hurley-led teams pull these tight games out. Connecticut wins a squeaker to advance to the National Championship.
--Written by Jesse Siegel
