This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
DrafKings is offering a 10-game slate Tuesday evening with a nice blend of NIT and NCAA First Four games on the docket; a solid start to what will be a busy week of DFS action.
These NIT games in particular are going to be challenging to sift through as we're already seeing the transfer portal become active, and it's fair to question motivation for some teams competing. Further, maybe some teams use this as an opportunity to play younger guys in advance of next season. Injuries are also a lead story Tuesday, with Providence's Devin Carter, the slate's highest-priced player, seemingly unlikely to play due to an ankle injury. That leaves a massive void for the Friars to fill. Providence will also be without Rich Barron, who has started 10 of the team's last 12, opening up major minutes in this backcourt and oodles of missing production.
Iowa - Kansas State is our expected highest scoring game Tuesday at 157.5 points, with Ohio State - Cornell and Georgia - Xavier our two other games with 150 point totals. Both of the First Four games have totals under 130 points.
Top Targets
Payton Sandfort, F, Iowa ($8,700)
As I sorted through this slate, there are a plethora of options in the lower middle tier, particularly at guard, so paying up for two anchor forwards is my preferred strategy. Boston College's Quintin Post is a fantastic option, but we'll save a little on Sandfort in a game with 20 additional points expected to be scored. Over his last nine games, Sandfort is averaging 20.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists and nearly a steal and a block. He's shown a 27.25 DKP floor and a massive 65.5 DKP ceiling in that stretch while failing to return 4x just three times.
Arthur Kaluma, F, Kansas State ($7,200)
We'll double dip in this high-scoring game with Kaluma, as the matchup, when paired with the price, is solid-to-better. Iowa ranks 153rd in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and 22nd in tempo. Additionally, the Hawkeyes rank 317th in 3-point field goal percentage allowed, and Kaluma is a willing hoister, averaging 4.5 3-point attempts nightly. Kaluma's floor is a little lower than we like when paying up for stability, as he's twice been under a 3x return at this price in his last 12 games, but we're banking on pace to raise that some. But in that 12-game stretch, he's averaged 15.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, 35.1 minutes and a 24.4 percent usage rate. He should be able to flirt with 30 fantasy points.
Middle Tier
Jayden Pierre ($5,400) or Ticket Gaines ($5,200), G, Providence
Devin Carter's absence cannot be overstated, as he leaves 21.4 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.1 blocks, 14.9 shot attempts and a 29.7 percent usage rate over his last 10 games in need of replacement. It's essentially impossible for one player to absorb that production at this point in the season, but we've got two low priced guard options here that should see additional opportunities. Gaines has just one double-digit scoring outing in his last five but was taking seven shots nightly in that span, unfortunately just hitting 28.6 percent from the floor. He's shown as a capable rebounder however. Pierre seems better suited to take on volume scoring, having averaged 13.0 shot attempts in his last four with a healthy Carter, averaging 11.8 points, 3.0 rebounds and 2.8 assists. It's relatively easy to see the path for those to grow here.
Dji Bailey, G, Richmond ($5,200)
Bailey is a solid lineup stabilizer for both the Spiders and fantasy lineups at this price. Lets make one thing very clear; Bailey can't shoot. Defenses will sag deep off of him in halfcourt sets. But he gets things done in transition and when the Spiders rotate the ball around late in the shot clock, and can get to double-digit points. But his fantasy appeal comes from being the cheapest starter for a team that doesn't substitute much. Bailey has played 30+ minutes in 16 straight games, averaging 10.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.6 steals in that stretch. He's capable of multi-faceted stat lines and is priced too low for someone that is a safe bet for a 4x return, something he's provided in 14 of these 16 recent outings.
Bargain Options
Abou Ousmane, F, Xavier ($4,900)
We'll go right back to this well now that Ousmane's price has returned to a sub-$5,000 spot. No hard hitting analysis is needed; Ousmane has reached double-digit fantasy points in eight straight, so we can take a 2x return and move on, though there is occasionally hope for more as he's returned 3.6x or better in four of those games. Georgia ranks 270th in offensive rebound percentage allowed, and Ousmane averages 2.8 offensive boards. If he can get those, he'll get some stick backs. Mix in a handful of defensive rebounds, and we've got a patch to fantasy points.
Javier Ezquerra, G, Wagner ($3,900)
I'll openly admit to having not watched a minute of Wagner basketball this season, so I'm not going to pretend to know much about Ezquerra; this is a spot where I'm letting the stats speak for themselves. And the leading stat here is 34.3 minutes per game, Ezquerra's playing time this season. He's seen a full 40 minutes in three straight. You can't help but do something when you play that much. Ezquerra has at least 16.75 DKP in five straight, averaging 6.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.0 steals. That's more than enough at a sub-$4,000 price.
