This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
While I'm sure everyone reading this is eye-deep in watching hoops, just as I am, it's never too early to get ahead of the game and look into Friday's NCAA Tournament action. We've got 16 more games offered at DraftKings throughout the day and, hopefully, plenty of money to be won.
Purdue didn't play yesterday, so we have the season-long Zach Edey conundrum. He's priced at $10,900, and no other player is priced at more than $9,200. It seems easy to ignore the big man's presence when pairing the volume of games on the slate with the anticipated blowout nature of the Boilermakers' game.
We've got five games here with a point total of 150 or greater, and conveniently five teams expected to score into the 80s. We'll want some shares there for the simple fact that scoring overall on this slate seems a touch low.
College Basketball DFS Picks for Friday, March 22
Top Players
Aaron Estrada, G, Alabama ($8,200)
We know this is the targetable game on the slate with its massive total, and the spread is tight enough. We can also assume the Tide starters play a plethora of minutes. Teammate Mark Sears is at a season-high price, so I'm interested in pivoting there to Estrada, who's offered a diverse state line of late, averaging 15.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 2.1 steals over his last seven games. He's played 38.0 minutes nightly, going the full 40 three times. That's my one worry, as while I anticipate big minutes, I don't anticipate 40, which could leave Estrada with a slightly lower floor and ceiling.
Vladislav Goldin, F, Florida Atlantic ($8,000)
Goldin appears to have been unleashed late in the year, or maybe head coach Dusty May was massaging his big man's minutes earlier with an eye towards this portion of the season. Over his last eight games, Goldin has been playing 28 minutes, four more than his season average, and is putting up 20.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks, again outproducing his season totals. He's returned 4x or better six times with a 3.3x floor, so he appears rock solid. And the matchup with Northwestern looks fantastic, as the Wildcats are without 7-foot, 280-pound Matthew Nicholson. They still have some bangers in Luke Hanger and Blake Preston, but neither has the experience.
Jaelen House, G, New Mexico ($7,600)
House was a monster in the Mountain West Tournament last week, averaging 25.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 2.0 steals, taking a massive 18.3 shots per game en route to a 31.7 percent usage. He's been a volume guy all year, and that won't change as the Lobos look to knock off Clemson. We've got a narrow spread and a game with an expected total north of 150 points, so it's a game we should want to target at the high end. New Mexico ranks eighth in tempo, further bolstering that thought. House gets to the foul line nearly eight times a night, too, elevating his scoring floor. He hasn't been great behind the 3-point line, but Clemson has defensive deficiencies there, ranking 191st against it, so if House can knock down one or two more long balls, there's a 5x ceiling.
Middle Tier
Tristan da Silva, F, Colorado ($6,800)
Even on a larger slate like this, the mid-tier of forwards doesn't profile nearly as fruitfully as the backcourt. Da Silva stands out, however, as he's normally priced in the 7k range and has been as high as $8,600. That's obviously a result of mediocre form, but the matchup here has the chance to correct that. Florida plays fast, ranking 18th in tempo, and this game comes with a targetable 159.5-point total and a narrow 1.5-point spread. The poor game logs are due to a slump in rebounding, averaging just three across his last six games. da Silva is more outside than inside, but Florida's loss of Micah Handlogten should be a boost to all of the Buffaloes' frontcourt. Da Silva should find success beating either Tyrese Samuel or Alex Condon off the dribble.
Manny Obaseki, G, Texas A&M ($6,000)
Normally, we'd want to get in on a surging player like Obaseki before the price peaks, so the timing here isn't ideal. But the price still seems fair, given his current form. Obaseki has started six straight, averaging 15.8 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.5 steals across 28.8 minutes, garnering a 25.0 percent usage rate. In half of those games, he's shown a 4.7x value or better, and only once has he failed to return 3x, a game where he fouled out. With a one-point spread here, we can expect big minutes again and a cheaper in to Aggies production from Wade Taylor and Tyrece Radford, both of whom are appealing in their own right.
Chase Hunter, G, Clemson ($5,800)
We touched on New Mexico's pace above when considering House, and if that manifests as expected, the Hunter is the one in charge of Clemson matching the tempo. And just a look at recent game logs shows you the appeal of this script. In games where Clemson scored 76 and 90 points, Hunter returned a 4x value at this price. In two games where Clemson scored 62 and 55 points, Hunter combined for 16.5 fantasy points. Prior to this mini four-game window, Hunter had reached 20 fantasy points or more in eight of his previous 12.
Bargain Options
Ernest Udeh, F, TCU ($4,800)
Udeh returned from a five-game absence to start the last three games, and he's been fantasy-relevant despite not making a field goal in two of those. The 10.8 percent usage rate is awful, and the 5.0 points and 6.7 rebounds aren't overly exciting either, but he's gotten after it on defense, averaging 2.0 steals and 1.0 blocks. Of the 20 rebounds he's pulled down since returning, 12 were of the offensive variety, giving him a chance at putbacks and/or trips to the foul line. Utah State is elite at keeping opponents off the offensive glass but hasn't dealt with many 6-foot-11, 260-pounders, and we're not expecting Udeh to be great, just serviceable.
Efrem Johnson, G, UAB ($4,700)
Johnson is a play based mainly on expected minutes, as he averages 30.7 of them. He's averaging double-digit points but is an inconsistent scorer with single-digit tallies in four of his last seven, but he's shown capable of the occasional outburst. The matchup isn't friendly, with San Diego State ranked eighth in defensive efficiency and 266th in tempo, but that's worked into the price, with Johnson being $900 less than he's been on the rare occasions UAB has been present at DraftKings.
Babacar Faye, F, Western Kentucky ($4,400)
The Hilltoppers' entire rotation merits minor consideration Friday. Yes, they likely get blown out, but they still have an anticipated total of 71.75 points, so there will be production. WKU is also deep, with nine guys averaging at least 17 minutes, which results in no player being priced north of $5,500. Yes, that makes each option volatile, but we can mitigate that by paying down on guys like Faye. He's averaging a usable 7.9 points and 6.0 rebounds across his last 11 games, only once failing to reach double-digit fantasy points while twice eclipsing the 30-point threshold.
