Thursday's main slate at DraftKings has just four games as the tournament begins to slim down, and has a slightly lower $60,000 total prize pool, but still $20,000 to first place and five prizes of $1,000 or greater. The good news with the decreased prize pool is the number of entries is smaller, so we don't have to beat as many to cash big. We tip at 7:10 p.m. EDT.
College Basketball DFS: DraftKings Picks & Preview for Thursday, March 26
This sets up as a fun yet challenging slate. We still have 20 starters to sort through, a few additional bench pieces, and the game scripts are very different. The South Region has the two lower scoring games and everyone will be loading up on Arkansas and Arizona with the 166.5 point total. The contrarian thought is that both of the games in the West Region have considerably larger spreads.
Only the Razorbacks' Darius Acuff ($10,300) comes in with a tag in five-figures, with the next closest being a full $1,000 less, setting up a standard question of paying up or building balance.
College Basketball DFS Top Players
Meleek Thomas, G, Arkansas ($7,300)
I'm not intentionally leaving out higher priced options. I absolutely think the pricing is soft enough and the rotations tight enough to find sub 5k players that can be successful. As such, feel free to use Acuff freely. We can't get the same upside from Thomas, but given the $3,000 savings, we can still get the same return on investment. Arkansas is playing ironman ball, so we know Thomas will see all the minutes he can handle. He's the cheapest starter and has averaged 37.2 minutes over the last six, posting 18.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.2 steals, posting a 23.1 percent usage rate. This game will obviously be targeted heavily from both sides. Maybe we can get Thomas as a sneaky secondary play with lower roster numbers.
David Mirkovic, F, Illinois ($7,200)
I've played the offensive rebound angle multiple times this season, and it's been pretty successful. Illinois is third nationally in offensive rebound percentage at 39.2; Houston ranks 168th in percentage allowed at 30.1. We've got a nice $1,000 price break from the Round of 32 due to a woeful showing from Mirkovic, but he's averaging 4.5 offensive boards over the last four and has topped 30 DKP in five of six, twice topping 40 fantasy points. It's a GPP, high-upside, lower-floor play. But my personal belief is this game could be higher scoring than anticipated, and Illinois will lean on their size advantage early and often, helping get Mirkovic to that ceiling.
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CBB DFS Middle Tier
Jaden Bradley, G, Arizona ($6,500)
He's been priced as high as $8,800 this season, and for that alone, I assume he's going to be massively rostered. There's also the game script angle. I'll include him here for you to consider your path. If everyone rosters him, you really gain nothing by not doing so to....he blows up, everyone has him or he blows up and you miss out. On the plus side, Bradley played 39 minutes in the Round of 32. On the down side, he somehow managed one rebound and no other counting stats outside of scoring. That surely can't happen Thursday if the pace is as expected. I personally don't love the matchup outside of pace, but I think Bradley is a necessary evil to roster.
Braden Frager, F, Nebraska ($5,000)
This game is all about the 3-point shot for the Huskers, who hoist it from downtown on 50.7 percent of their shot attempts. They went 5-for-24 in a regular season loss to Iowa, and 10-for-27 in a win. Somehow Frager only took four of those total, not making any while averaging 10.75 DKP. Third time's a charm perhaps? Over his last 13 games, which includes these two stinkers, Frager is averaging 25.3 minutes, a 25.6 percent usage rate, 11.1 points, 3.7 boards, a steal and assist. There are safer plays, but there's 5x upside if shots fall for him, doing so six times in this stretch and in both tournament games. Jamarques Lawrence ($4,800) had far more success in season against the Hawkeyes, and thus would seemingly be the more popular pick. It's either/or for me, not both.
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College Basketball DFS Value Plays
Alvaro Folgueiras, F, Iowa ($4,700)
Folguieras' heroics against Florida aren't the appeal, moreso it's the 21.0 DKP in three straight and four of five. He was inconsistent against the Cornhuskers in season, earning 23.75 DKP and 11.75 DKP, but he gives us a cheap forward with potential on the team I think is going to be the least targeted rotation for rosters. Cam Manyawu ($4,900) can be considered; his game logs are more consistent, but he was not impressive against Nebraska during the year. If you've made it this far in the column, hopefully you're realizing I want as many players as possible at $5,000 or greater.
Mercy Miller, G, Houston ($3,700)
As noted above, I don't think we have to go this low into the bargain bin to be successful. But say you want to use Acuff, and maybe pair him with Bennett Stirtz ($8,800), Braden Smith ($9,000) or Pryce Sandfort ($8,500), well then we're entering that discussion. Miller is averaging 23.0 minutes over the last four, posting 10.3 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists. There's no rhyme or reason to his production spikes; he's produced in tight games and blowouts. Truly a hot hand guess but it comes with minimal risk at the price as we can settle for 12-15 fantasy points.
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