This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We have a stacked college hoops slate in store for Tuesday. It's hard to top this offering. Here are my predictions for three high-profile matchups on Tuesday.
Oregon 
vs. Texas A&M
The Ducks have floundered during the non-conference season in recent years. In the last three seasons, the Ducks have lost multiple November games and been blown out by good teams. Last year during Feast Week, for example, the Ducks lost to Santa Clara, 88-82, before losing to Alabama, 99-91. We don't want to attribute past sins to this current squad, although I bring this up because these Ducks haven't been tested yet and still have time to accrue multiple losses before the month ends. This is possible because they haven't looked great even though they've played weak competition thus far. Oregon hosted Portland, 2-5 and 307th in overall efficiency, and the Pilots took the Ducks to overtime before the home team survived the extra period. More recently, the Ducks traveled to Corvallis and beat Oregon State by three points, 78-75, another underachieving performance.
The Aggies, on the other hand, have played in two challenging games already. Texas A&M lost the season opener at UCF before winning its last four games, including a 14-point win over Ohio State. The Buckeyes are ranked 15th in overall efficiency, so the performance should not be overlooked. It's still early, but the Aggies are looking sharper than the group that made the second round of the NCAA Tournament last season. Texas A&M has a comparable offensive rating as that group, ranked 29th in efficiency, although the defense has taken a noticeable leap. Last year's squad ranked 68th in defensive efficiency, but this new group is up to 17th. Overall, you're hard-pressed to find a more tight-knit team. Among all D-1 squads, the Aggies rank eighth in roster continuity and 12th in D-1 experience.
Stacking these teams against each other, Texas A&M holds the edge in most areas. The Aggies have higher efficiency ratings on both ends of the court, and they rank noticeably higher in specific stat categories as well. Offensively, Texas A&M massively outranks Oregon in offensive rebounding and free-throw attempt rate. And defensively, the Aggies again rank much higher in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnover percentage, and two-point field goal percentage allowed, among others. In addition to the better stats, the Aggies are more battle-tested and cohesive as a team than their opponents on Wednesday.
Overall, the Aggies are the better team. They were better last year, and all signs indicate that is still the case. Given a short line, I'll take Texas A&M in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas A&M -3
Duke 
vs. Kansas
The Blue Devils earned one of the best wins of the season the last time they took the court, traveling to Houston and routing the Arizona Wildcats, 69-55. The margin of victory was impressive but so is holding the potent Wildcats to 55 points. This outcome might've caught some off-guard, but I'm glad to say I was all over the Blue Devils in my picks article from last Friday. I bring this up because as much as I liked the Blue Devils in their previous matchup, the situation is substantially different on Tuesday.
Kansas enters Tuesday with a flawless 5-0 record and two quality wins over North Carolina and Michigan State. The Jayhawks were ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches poll, and they've more-or-less lived up to the lofty expectations. They started the year ranked seventh on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, and have hardly budged, now at No. 9 as of Monday evening. While it's not unusual for Kansas to be loaded with talent and depth, this year's squad is playing at an elite level on both ends of the court, ranking top-15 in adjusted efficiency on both offense and defense.
Duke will face a Kansas team that ranks near the top in several offensive categories. The Jayhawks are 13th in offensive efficiency, 30th in effective field goal percentage, 11th in offensive turnover percentage, and 21st in two-point field goal percentage. Aside from standings, I should also point out that Kansas is loaded with shooters. The Jayhawks have four significant players who have made at least 35 percent of three-pointers on at least 250 career attempts.
Looking at the other end of the court, Duke faces a stiff test when it has the ball. The Blue Devils rank 15th in offensive efficiency but the Jayhawks are one tick better on defense at No. 14. Even though Duke has been effective with scoring, few areas jump out on that side of the court. The Blue Devils rank consistently high in most important categories, but there aren't any obvious areas where we can say they have an advantage over the Jayhawks' defense. One potential weakness, however, is that Duke hasn't been very aggressive when attacking the basket, ranking 338th in offensive free-throw attempt rate. Kansas ranks 161st in defensive free-throw attempt rate, so we wouldn't expect anything out of the ordinary in that category, although it's interesting a physically large team like Duke isn't getting to the free-throw line. Either way, this side of the court is mostly even.
Kansas has one more intangible edge over Duke, experience. I normally might not bring this up, but if you watched Duke play against Kentucky in the third game of the season, you saw a classic case of a savvy veteran team out-maneuvering a young but talented roster. Kentucky ranks fourth in D-1 experience, but Kansas ranks first in the same category, so with everything being equal, perhaps wisdom and experience will win out while we're still in November.
With the Jayhawks being so versatile and strong on both ends of the court, I like their odds of keeping it close if not winning outright. I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Kansas +3.5
Houston 
vs. Alabama 
The Cougars are back in a familiar place, near the top of KenPom's overall efficiency standings. Houston has resided at or near the pinnacle for the past four seasons, ranking fifth in 2020-21 before three straight years finishing at No. 2. Entering Tuesday, Houston is at the top even though it already suffered a loss at the Toyota Center in Houston. Auburn was responsible for the loss, 74-69, in a game that went back and forth through 40 minutes. Outside of this matchup, Houston hasn't played anyone of note, although it does rank 17th in minutes continuity from last season, so we effectively know what to expect from this team.
Alabama, meanwhile, got back in the win column following a disappointing performance at Purdue. I previewed the Tide's game against Illinois last week, and I'm glad to say I picked Alabama to cover for a few reasons, many of which still apply. First, this team is playing just as well as, arguably better than, the one that made the Final Four last March. The Tide ranked second in offensive efficiency a season ago but its Achilles' Heel was its defense, ranking 111th. This year, the team is still scoring like few others, ranking third in efficiency, and the defense has stepped it up to 49th. Long-term, the Crimson Tide undoubtedly wants to improve that standing, but for now, it's still good enough to beat a good team like Illinois by 13 points. And much like its opponent on Tuesday, the Tide is also a cohesive group, ranking 70th in roster continuity and 23rd in D-1 experience.
When Alabama has the ball on Tuesday, the matchup is nearly even on paper. The best offense against the best defense, or at least close to it. That said, Auburn's offense ranks second in efficiency and it dropped 74 points in Houston during its win. This is notable because both the Tigers and the Tide are exceptional at close-range shots. Alabama is making 65 percent of its shots inside the arc, the fifth-highest percentage in the nation, and only three slots below Auburn.
When Houston has the ball, it has an easier defensive matchup, although we have a couple of stats that suggest it might come down to earth against a good opponent on Tuesday. First, the Cougars are making 49 percent of their shots from behind the arc, the highest percentage in the nation. Houston obviously has good shooters on its team, however, this kind of shooting is unsustainable. In each of the last two seasons, not one single D-1 team made over 41 percent of three-point attempts for an entire season. The Cougars' shooting numbers will regress over time. On a semi-related note, Houston hasn't been quite as productive from close range. The Cougars are making 48 percent of two-point attempts, 242nd in the nation, and they're not taking many trips to the charity stripe, either, ranking 285th in offensive free-throw attempt rate.
These two teams clashed in Houston back on Dec. 10, 2022, and Alabama won 71-65. Mark Sears and J'Wan Roberts were the only prominent players involved, although the outside circumstances remain similar. Houston was ranked first in overall efficiency and Alabama was 14th when they faced off back in 2022. Now, Houston is again at No. 1 although Alabama comes in at No. 10, and the game tips off in Las Vegas, Nevada. All things considered, I'm taking the points with the better offensive team. I'm rolling with the Tide in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Alabama +4.5
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Texas A&M -3
- Kansas +3.5
- Alabama +4.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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