March Madness festivities resume on Thursday, as the first half of the Sweet 16 tips off. Here are my predictions for three games on today's slate.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Texas 
vs. Purdue
The Longhorns' success is largely attributed to their dynamic offense, which ranks 15th in adjusted efficiency. The challenge for opposing defenses is that Texas excels in many key offensive areas. Specifically, the Longhorns rank among the top 80 teams in effective field goal percentage, turnovers, offensive rebounding percentage (38th), and free-throw attempt rate (seventh).
Purdue, meanwhile, has played great defense on an adjusted-efficiency basis, ranking 33rd, though it often allows opponents to take easier shots. The Boilermakers allowed Big Ten opponents to make 56 percent of two-pointers and 37 percent of three-pointers, yielding an effective field goal percentage allowed that ranks third-worst in the conference. The Boilermakers are great at avoiding fouls and defensive rebounding, but consistently giving up easy buckets is obviously not a good trait for a defense.
Defense was the key concern for Purdue as it closed out the regular season. The Boilermakers stumbled down the stretch, losing four of their final six games, allowing at least 82 points in three of them. But, since the postseason started, the Boilermakers have yet to allow more than 72 points in any single game, winning six straight along the way.
At the other end of the court, Texas' defense doesn't look great on paper, 81st in adjusted efficiency, although it plays well in a couple of important areas that give it a shot, and have helped it reach this point in the tournament. Namely, the Longhorns are strong at defending the paint. They are holding opponents to under 50 percent on two-point attempts (92nd), and they collect boards at a rate that ranks 26th, a skillset that comes in handy against any opponent.
In a peculiar way, although Purdue boasts the highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating among all D-1 teams, the Boilermakers are an ideal matchup for Texas for one reason only. Free throws. The Longhorns have suffered through fouling issues throughout the season, ranking 299th in free-throw attempt rate allowed, although Purdue's offense rarely takes trips to the charity stripe, ranking 335th in free-throw attempt rate.
There's a chance Purdue makes this pick look foolish, but I'm betting Texas's offense can keep pace and make the Boilermakers sweat down the stretch. Considering we have a sizeable spread to work with, I'm taking the points and betting on a close game.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas +7.5
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Arkansas 
vs. Arizona 
The weakest component of this matchup easily belongs to the Razorbacks' defense.
Arkansas ranks 53rd in adjusted efficiency, but the most concerning aspect is its inability to guard inside the arc. The Razorbacks are allowing opponents to make 54 percent of shots inside the arc (275th), and the problem was particularly severe against SEC opponents, allowing 56 percent (second-worst) during conference play.
Well, Arizona is arguably the last team you want to play if you can't defend in the paint. Offensively, the Wildcats boast the third-highest adjusted efficiency rating, and most of their production comes inside the arc. Arizona has made 55 percent of two-point attempts, and they attempt so many of them that two-pointers account for 57 percent of their total points, the 14th-highest mark among all D-1 teams. Additionally, Arizona boasts the fourth-highest offensive rebounding percentage nationally, while Arkansas' defense ranks 203rd in rebounding. Quite a mismatch, to say the least.
At the other end of the court, we have a much tighter matchup. The Razorbacks have reached this point thanks to an explosive offensive attack led by superstar freshman Darius Acuff. They rank fifth in adjusted efficiency among all D-1 teams and lead the nation in turnover percentage. Arizona's defense is similarly first-class, ranking third in adjusted efficiency, so it's hard for any opposing offense to compare, but Arkansas appears to have enough firepower to make it a fair fight.
Ultimately, I find it impossible to ignore the Razorbacks' massive defensive weakness, especially when facing an exceptional frontcourt. At the same time, I also find it incredibly difficult to fade Darius Acuff and company, especially when the spread isn't exactly small.
Given two elite offenses and one questionable defense, I like our odds of seeing a high-scoring game. I'm taking the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 165.5
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Illinois 
vs. Houston 
Here we have two heavyweights clashing, nearly even in KenPom's overall standings, with Houston ranked fourth and Illinois coming in sixth.
The secret to Illinois' success has been its world-class offense, which boasts the second-highest adjusted efficiency rating among all D-1 teams. The Illini are a sharp-shooting bunch, recording an effective field goal percentage that ranks 34th, and they're careful with the ball, ranking ninth in turnovers. Their best trait, however, and arguably the most important in this matchup, is their ability to collect offensive rebounds, boasting the third-highest percentage among all D-1 teams. This is critical when facing Houston because, despite its elite defense, the Cougars don't always box out, ranking 168th in defensive rebounding.
Another red flag and potential problem for Houston's defense is its penchant for sending opponents to the charity stripe. The Cougars ranked last in the Big 12 in free-throw attempt rate allowed during the conference season. This could be a fatal flaw against a team like Illinois, as the Illini made 80 percent of their free throws during the conference season and ranked fifth in the Big Ten in free-throw attempt rate.
At the other end of the court, Illinois might not have the best defense remaining in the tournament, but it nonetheless plays at a high level and plays with a cautious yet highly successful strategy. Specifically, the Illini lead the nation in free-throw attempt rate allowed and are last in defensive turnover percentage. Somehow, Illinois is able to hold opponents to low shooting percentages (32nd in effective field goal percentage allowed) despite seemingly going out of its way to avoid fouls. Aside from their ability to affect shots without fouling, the Illini also rank 32nd in defensive rebounding percentage, another important note because Houston ranks 26th in offensive rebounding percentage.
The betting lines can be awfully tight this time of year, and I'm betting this one is no exception. I picked Houston to win this matchup in most of my brackets, but at the same time, this game seems like one that is destined to come down to a potential buzzer-beating shot. With that in mind, I'll take the two and a half points in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Illinois +2.5
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Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Texas +7.5
- Arkansas vs. Arizona - Over 165.5
- Illinois +2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
