Following an epic conclusion to the Elite Eight, the Final Four has now arrived, featuring four contenders vying for a chance at winning the national championship. Here are my predictions for each Final Four game on Saturday.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Illinois 
vs. Connecticut 
This matchup features arguably the best offensive team in the nation facing off against one of the best defensive teams.
Illinois boasts the nation's highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating, but it faces a unique challenge on Saturday: not only does UConn's defense rank ninth in adjusted efficiency, but the Huskies' style also poses a challenge.
Specifically, UConn exhibits exceptional perimeter defense. The Huskies are holding opponents to 31 percent on three-point attempts and often force them off the arc, with opponents' three-point attempt rate ranking 79th-lowest. The ability to challenge and limit long-range shots is pivotal in this matchup because Illinois does most of its damage from beyond the arc. Three-pointers account for 38 percent of Illinois' total points, the 29th-highest mark, so minimizing production in this area could make all the difference.
Aside from elite perimeter defense, UConn is also strong at securing the glass and defending the paint. During the conference season, the Huskies led the Big East in effective field goal percentage allowed and two-point shooting defense, holding opponents to 46 percent, and they also ranked third in defensive rebounding percentage.
If UConn's defense plays up to its usual standard, the Huskies have a great chance at advancing because they've played well offensively over the past couple of months. During league play, UConn's offense ranked in the top two in the Big East in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, rebounding percentage, two-point shooting (56 percent), and three-point shooting (36 percent).
These two teams previously clashed in Madison Square Garden in late November, with UConn jumping out to a 23-12 lead and never looking back, winning 74-61. All things considered, I'm betting history repeats itself on Friday. I'm taking the points in a low-scoring game.
College Basketball Best Bet: UConn +1.5 and Under 139.5
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Michigan 
vs. Arizona 
Defensively, these two teams are as good as it gets, ranking one and two in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings. On top of that, these two are also among the best at defending the paint, ranking among the top three in two-point shooting percentage allowed.
That said, a few noticeable differences stand out offensively. Namely, Michigan has a clear edge in shooting. Among all D-1 teams, the Wolverines are second in two-point shooting (61 percent), 30th in three-point shooting (37 percent), and sixth in effective field goal percentage. Arizona, meanwhile, ranks outside of the top 30 teams in all three categories.
The most significant difference, however, is the fact that Arizona gets minimal production from the perimeter. It's hard to call this a weakness, as the Wildcats are making 37 percent from beyond the arc as a team, though it's also important to note they rarely take long-range shots. Three-pointers account for just 20 percent of Arizona's total points, the fifth-lowest mark among all D-1 teams. This reluctance or refusal to shoot from the perimeter will be put to the test on Saturday, as Michigan's elite frontcourt defense forces opponents to take long-range shots; opponents have scored 36 percent of their total points from three-point range, the 41st-highest mark. This number is all the more remarkable considering that Michigan is holding opponents to 30 percent on three-point attempts, the 17th-best nationally.
Outside of this matchup note, these two teams appear close to even in most of the usual key categories. And, with everything else being so close, I believe Arizona's lack of perimeter scoring will finally come back to bite it, especially when facing arguably the best frontcourt defense in the nation. For context, Michigan has logged 17 games this season with making at least 10 three-pointers, while Arizona has just four such games.
For these reasons, I'm taking the Wolverines on Saturday.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan -1.5
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- UConn +1.5
- Illinois vs. UConn - Under 139.5
- Michigan -1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
