Friday brings us Part II of the Sweet 16, as four more teams compete to punch their ticket to the Elite Eight. Coming off a 3-0 sweep with Thursday's picks, I present my predictions for three games on Friday's slate.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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St. John's 
vs. Duke 
The weakest part of this matchup easily belongs to St. John's offense. It ranks 41st in adjusted efficiency, which isn't bad, but it's well below average with shooting accuracy. The Red Storm is making 52 percent of shots inside the arc (191st) and 33 percent beyond the arc (218th), yielding an effective field goal percentage that ranks 197th.
The Johnnies' offense usually makes up for this deficiency with strong numbers in other areas, ranking among the top 50 teams in turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate. This is nice and helpful in just about any matchup, except this isn't just any matchup. Duke's defense boasts the best adjusted efficiency rating among all D-1 teams, and it's among the top 10 in effective field goal percentage allowed, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate. It's tough for any offense to compare to a defense with elite numbers across the board.
At the other end of the court, we have a much closer matchup, as both Duke's offense and St. John's defense rank among the top 10 teams nationally in adjusted efficiency. And much like Duke's defense, the Johnnies are similarly strong in virtually all categories. St. John's ranks among the top 40 teams in effective field goal percentage allowed and turnovers, and they're also in the top 100 in free-throw attempt rate allowed.
Overall, this matchup appears to have all the makings of a grinding, defensive battle. Perhaps St. John's shoots above its usual numbers and gives us a high point total, but I'm not betting on it. Considering we have two of the best defensive teams in the nation facing off, and a weaker offense, I'm betting we'll have a low-scoring game on our hands. I'm taking the Under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 141.5
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Alabama 
vs. Michigan 
In many ways, this matchup is much like the Arkansas-Arizona game from Thursday. It features two of the best offensive teams in the country, along with a noticeably weak defense.
The weak defense, as most college hoops fans might guess, belongs to Alabama. The Crimson Tide's defense ranks 59th in adjusted efficiency, and it's particularly poor in two key areas. First, it rarely causes turnovers, ranking 358th in turnover percentage. Second, it ranks 287th in rebounding percentage. The latter is of the utmost concern heading into Friday's matchup, as Michigan's offense ranks sixth in adjusted efficiency and ranks 47th in rebounding percentage. The Wolverines are making 62 percent of two-point attempts, the second-highest mark nationally, so extra possessions could spell doom for Alabama.
Alabama has a chance to pull off the upset if its defense steps up, since the Crimson Tide's offense is among the best in the country. It ranks third in adjusted efficiency and is among the top 30 teams in effective field goal percentage and turnover percentage. Alabama also boasts the highest three-point attempt rate among all D-1 teams, making 36 percent from beyond the arc, so it's definitely capable of scorching the nets and winning against any team on any given day, as evidenced by their regular-season wins over St. John's and Illinois.
The over/under is high, and understandably so. Both teams have elite offenses and run up and down the court as much as possible, with both ranking in the top 15 nationally for average offensive possession length. I believe Michigan's offense will break through Alabama's defense, although the spread is a bit too high for my taste. Instead, I like the odds of a high-scoring game. I'm going with the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 172.5
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Michigan State 
vs. Connecticut 
Matchups don't get any tighter than this. Entering Friday, Michigan State (ninth) and UConn (10th) are next to each other in KenPom's overall efficiency standings.
That said, a closer look leads me to prefer one team over the other.
Defensively, the Huskies excel in many key areas for winning a game. Their top trait is forcing difficult shots, holding opponents to 46 percent on shots inside the arc (12th) and 31 percent beyond it (28th), resulting in an effective field goal percentage allowed that ranks eighth-best nationally. They are also strong at securing rebounds (74th in rebounding) and very good at creating turnovers (99th in turnover percentage). The latter could be crucial to the game, as Michigan State tends to cough up the ball, ranking 222nd in offensive turnover percentage. Aside from turnovers, Michigan State's offense has performed well in most categories, ranking 23rd in adjusted efficiency, 66th in effective field goal percentage, and ninth in offensive rebounding.
When playing in the other direction, UConn is also formidable. During the conference season, the Huskies' offense led the Big East in efficiency, two-point shooting, and effective field goal percentage, and it was second-best in three-point shooting and offensive rebounding. Cracking Michigan State's defense won't be easy, but UConn appears to have the necessary tools.
Overall, UConn's offense has an edge over Michigan State's in shooting, and UConn's defense has an edge over Michigan State's in takeaways and forcing difficult shots. This game will likely be intense and come down to the final possession or two. My money's on UConn to emerge victorious.
College Basketball Best Bet: UConn -1.5
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Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- St. John's vs. Duke - Under 141.5
- Alabama vs. Michigan - Over 172.5
- UConn -1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
