The NBA regular season ended Sunday and the Play-In Tournament is slated to tip off Tuesday night. In the play-in NBA betting event, eight teams seeded seventh through 10th in each conference hope to start a prolonged postseason push.
So RotoWire.com wanted to see how NBA teams fare after they survive the play-in phase to make the NBA playoffs. Check out the history in our interactive graphic below:
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The NBA does not consider it a playoff appearance unless a team is in the 16-team field for the best-of-seven first round. The play-in games, under their current format, have been around since 2021, leading to a few long-term postseason success stories during that stretch.
How Do NBA Play-In Teams Fare in Postseason?
The odds of making it out of the first round of the postseason after starting in the NBA's Play-In Tournament are slim – only 15% of play-in teams won their first-round series. That would translate to odds of about +565 at leading sportsbook apps.
But that's not to say that being in the event is a kiss of death for postseason success.
Three Play-In Teams That Went Further
Three of the 20 Play-In teams since 2022 have advanced out of the first round. That includes last year's Golden State Warriors, who knocked off the Houston Rockets in seven games before falling to the Minnesota Timberwolves in five during the Western Conference semifinals.
The 2023 Play-In Tournament crew had two examples of teams that found their best form at the right time. The West's No. 7 seed, the Los Angeles Lakers, knocked off the Memphis Grizzlies and the Warriors before falling to the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference final.
The East had a Play-in team make an even better surge that year. In the East, the eighth-seeded Miami Heat ousted the Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks and Boston Celtics in their run all the way to the NBA Finals. There, they fell to the Denver Nuggets in a five-game series. Entering Round 1 that year, BetMGM Sportsbook had the Heat at +6000 odds to win the East.
Of the 17 teams that lost in the first round after advancing through the Play-In Tournament since 2021, none extended their lone postseason series to seven games. Five of those teams lost in six games, eight in five games and three were swept in four.
Eastern Conference Play-In Picture
Now that the dust has settled on the NBA's regular season, we know which eight teams will try to earn playoff bids out of the play-in phase.
A reminder of the format: The seventh-best team in each conference faces the eighth best, with the winner claiming the No. 7 seed in the eight-team playoff field in their conference. The No. 9 and No. 10 teams in each conference meet, with the loser eliminated. The winner of the 9/10 game meets the loser of the 7/8 game for the right to be the eighth and final seed in their conference playoffs.
The 10th seed Miami Heat will visit the No. 9 Charlotte Hornets on Tuesday at 7:30 p.m. Eastern in the first of two Eastern Conference play-in games.
Oddsmakers from BetMGM have Charlotte as a 5.5-point home favorite with a -220 moneyline. This is the closest thing to a postseason game that the Tar Heel State franchise has experienced since 2016, when the Hornets lost in the first round to the Heat in seven games.
At 7:30 on Wednesday night, the other East first-round Play-In contest pits the No. 8 Orlando Magic and No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers in Philly.
As of Monday afternoon, oddsmakers from DraftKings Sportsbook have Philly as a 1.5-point favorite, with a -115 moneyline, compared with -105 odds for the visitors from Orlando.
All six of this year's play-in games, including the final ones on Thursday and Friday, are airing exclusively on Prime Video.
Western Conference Play-In Picture
Out West, the first two Play-In Tournament contests are between the No. 7 Suns and No. 8 Trail Blazers on Tuesday night in Phoenix, then the No. 10 Golden State Warriors at the No. 9 Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday.
In the Suns-Trail Blazers showdown, Caesars Sportsbook has Phoenix as a 3.5-point home favorite, with a -165 moneyline, compared with +140 odds for Portland. That game tips off at 10 Eastern.
The next night, the Clippers and Warriors will face off at 10 p.m. inside Intuit Dome in L.A. Fanatics Sportsbook gives the Clippers -210 moneyline odds of knocking off Steve Kerr's squad in the fourth and final first-round matchup.
NBA Playoff Odds for Play-In Candidates
When it comes to Play-In Tournament team futures, DraftKings has +130 odds (or a 43.5% implied probability) that any team reaches the second round as a prop bet. The site has +550 odds on a Play-In team reaching the Conference Finals, +1300 odds of making the NBA Finals and +5000 odds of winning the Larry O'Brien Trophy in 2026.
Based on recent history, it seems wise to wager that none of the No. 7 or No. 8 teams will advance to the second round. That 15% success rate in the first round over the past five years speaks to the long odds that lower seeded teams face in the NBA's best-of-seven gauntlet.
