It's play-in time for Wednesday's FanDuel NBA main slate, as we have an elimination game and a seeding matchup on tap for the evening. It's do-or-die for the Clippers and the Warriors, as the winner of the matchup will end their season. On the other end, the Sixers and Magic will fight for the right to face the Celtics in the first round. The loser will take on the winner of the GSW/LAC matchup for the eighth seed. I was thwarted by Bam Adebayo's injury yesterday, so it's my hope that my elites will stay injury-free. Absent that fear, I'm fairly confident in our selections.
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FanDuel Main Slate NBA Games Today
I chose to fade mid-salary Warriors tonight, and I may end up needing more from them if my elites threaten a salary cap overspend. I'm aware that my budget picks won't get me where I need to be. The most likely adjustments may come from an added Warriors support piece and an unfortunate fade for one of my Philly suggestions.
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NBA Injuries Today
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report. Below are some of the most recent and relevant injuries for Wednesday.
PHI Joel Embiid (abdomen) - OUT
Embiid is still recovering from emergency appendix surgery and won't be available. Adem Bona ($3,700) is expected to start, but he'll likely platoon with Andre Drummond ($5,700) under the basket.
GSW Quinten Post (foot) - OUT
Post's absence won't move the needle much, as the remainder of the frontcourt is healthy.
Elite Players
We have two players eclipsing $10k tonight, but just barely. Tyrese Maxey ($10,200) and Kawhi Leonard ($10,100) will both ball out for their respective teams tonight, and I'm definitely considering both of them. Although Maxey's projections are slightly higher, Leonard's historic brilliance in playoff scenarios has few parallels in league history. His current situation is similar to his championship run in Toronto, where he powered an average squad through the bracket to win the NBA title. I'm looking at both players, but favoring Leonard.
We only have three players left above $8,000, and Paul George ($8,000) stands out as the best salary and opportunity with Embiid on the sidelines. Stephen Curry ($8,500) also has playoff acumen in his back pocket. Paolo Banchero ($9,500) comes in a little too high, as I haven't seen him beat 5x at this salary frequently enough. He's hit the necessary number only four times in the past 10 games. I can't rule him out completely, as he hit some productive secondary numbers with George and Embiid on the floor back in January.
Expected Chalk, Midrange Players and Value Plays
Darius Garland, LAC ($7,600) vs. GSW
The Intuit Dome will be rocking tonight, and the added home advantage should play in Garland's favor. He let the Cavs down with a poor shooting night in the team's final playoff game against the Pacers last season. Still, the backcourt is largely in his control, with the Clippers yielding more assists and scoring opportunities than he had alongside Donovan Mitchell. With an extra day to rest his lingering toe injury, he should be able to improve upon the 15/1/6 line that he put up against the Warriors in the season finale.
VJ Edgecombe, PHI ($7,500) vs. ORL
Edgecombe turned in a solid 26/4/7 line against Orlando back in January. The potential is there for another big total tonight at home, and he has the added SG eligibility that we need with elite point guards spread throughout the player pool. The 76ers have many mouths to feed, but Edgecombe should get his share.
Desmond Bane, ORL ($7,300) @ PHI
The Magic limited Bane's minutes in the final week of the season, a move that should give the swingman an advantage against the 76ers. He averaged 20.6 points, 3.3 rebounds and 4.0 assists across three games against Philly this season. He needs to exceed these numbers to meet 5x value, but if you exclude his limited numbers in the final two games, he posted an average of 46.4 FDFPs over the previous three contests. Franz Wagner was visibly hurting in the team's most recent game, meaning Bane's numbers won't be affected too much by his participation.
Draymond Green, GSW ($6,000) @ LAC
Green continued to show up in my builds, although I can't say I'm thrilled with the selection. I've been low on Green with Kristaps Porzingis ($7,100) playing regularly, but I can't justify Porzingis at that salary. Green is below the FD median, and we need the extra money to get our top scorers into the mix.
John Collins, LAC ($5,900) vs. GSW
Collins has played an integral role in almost all of the Clippers' matchups against the Warriors this season, and he notably posted 27.8 FDFPs in the season finale. He fared better than teammate Brook Lopez, and Derrick Jones failed to score a point against Golden State in the finale. I believe he's worth the risk at this salary.
Kelly Oubre, PHI ($5,800) vs. ORL
Oubre's numbers have deflated slightly with the return of Paul George, but his performance in the final few games against the Knicks in last season's playoffs kept them in the mix. Oubre has considerable playoff experience and will probably see more time than Dominick Barlow.
Kris Dunn, LAC ($4,200) vs. GSW
I'm thinking of Dunn purely as a cost-saving measure. I'm not thrilled with the choice, but we need the extra coin to maximize our ability to grab players above the FD median. It's a necessary evil, but totally worth it given the players we are targeting in exchange.
