This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
There are four Game 3s on Saturday, and we can make some educated guesses on how things will play out based on a two-contest sample size for each series. Below, I've outlined one pick for each contest.
Odds via the FanDuel Sportsbook are as accurate as Friday at 4:08 p.m.
Statistics are from NBA.com, Basketball-Reference and Cleaning The Glass.
Magic vs. 
Bucks (-12); 226.0
The pick: Bucks over 119.5 (-105)
The Bucks are overdue for some positive regression shooting the ball. Milwaukee is averaging just 110.5 points in the series, shooting 45%/35%/68%. They're getting some of the best shots in the playoffs right now, but nothing is falling. In the postseason, Orlando is allowing the third-most shots at the rim and the fourth-most shots from beyond the arc, but Milwaukee has the worst accuracy at the rim and the sixth-worst accuracy from three. It seems unlikely that Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe will continue to shoot a combined 7-for-30 from deep, and more layups should fall as well.
Pacers vs. 
Heat (-5); 214.0
The pick: Under 214.0 (-110)
Miami's unsustainable three-point marksmanship (44.3%) has given this series the appearance of something more offensively-tilted than it actually is. These teams are playing at a pace of 94.5 -- lower than the slowest team this season, the Hornets (95.6) -- and Miami's effective field-goal percentage is 5.0% higher than what's expected based on shot location. Indiana is shooting as expected based on location. Betting the under on a number so low can certainly cause some hesitance, but the Pacers will need to clamp down on defense if they stand any chance of winning this series.
Thunder vs. 
Rockets (-3); 223.5
The pick: Under 223.5 (-110)
Both of these teams are hitting shots from the field at an expected rate, but the pace has been incredibly slow at 94.7 possessions per 48 minutes and, notably, the Rockets' 123.6 offensive rating is 10.7 points above their season average. That's been driven by an absurdly-high 89.2% conversion rate from the free-throw line, which should come back down to earth. They've also committed just 14 total turnovers, which should increase considering they average 14.7 per game on the season. If the ball ends up in the hands of the Thunder more often, they'll slow it down and look for their mid-rangers, driving the total score down.
Trail Blazers vs. 
Lakers (-7); 225.0
The pick: Lakers -7.0 (-110)
Both of these teams should improve offensively (combined 199.6 offensive rating), though more so in favor of the Lakers, whose effective field-goal percentage is 8.9% lower than expected based on shot location. However, the pace is so low (98.2), I don't feel comfortable taking any overs. So, I'm taking the Lakers to win since I believe their positive regression will be more significant, especially for LeBron James (42%/13%/68% shooting). Anthony Davis also was aggressive in attacking the basket in Game 2, which was an important wall for him to break through, as he has a tendency to settle for mid-rangers. It's also possible the Blazers are running out of gas.
