Shane Baz

Shane Baz

25-Year-Old PitcherSP
Tampa Bay Rays
2025 Fantasy Outlook
While it seems as if Baz is a major-league vet getting ready for free agency, the fact remains he has pitched fewer than 120 innings at the big-league level and is 7-5 with a 3.38 ERA over 23 career starts. Baz missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery and worked nearly 40 innings in Triple-A trying to regain his velocity before finally returning to the major-league roster in early July. Baz never did fully regain his velocity as his average fastball was roughly half a click below where things were in 2022, but his other pitches performed extremely well as the league hit below .170 off all his non-fastball offerings. It was also encouraging to see Baz work six or more innings in six of his final eight starts as he got closer to the full two-year mark from his surgery and his command improved. Baz should be all systems go for 2025, but this is still a pitcher whose 108.2 innings last year between Durham and Tampa Bay is a career high. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#203
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $1.45 million contract with the Rays in January of 2025.
Pushed back to Monday
PTampa Bay Rays
April 13, 2025
Baz will no longer start Sunday's game against Atlanta as planned and will instead make his next turn through the rotation Monday versus the Red Sox in Tampa, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
ANALYSIS
The Rays are in the midst of a busy period in their schedule, so the team has elected to temporarily add a sixth man to the rotation. Joe Boyle was recalled from Triple-A Durham and will take the hill Sunday, and he will either shift to the bullpen or head back to the minors after the game. Baz now lines up for two starts during the upcoming week, with his second turn potentially coming next Saturday at home versus the Yankees.
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Pitching Stats
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2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
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2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
96
Last 10 Games
96
Last 5 Games
96
How many pitches does Shane Baz generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Shane Baz generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-29%
BAA vs LHP
2025
 
 
-17%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-31%
BAA vs LHP
2023
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2023vs Left .167 184 41 19 27 4 0 6
Since 2023vs Right .235 186 44 12 40 3 0 4
2025vs Left .188 17 8 1 3 0 0 0
2025vs Right .226 34 8 3 7 0 0 1
2024vs Left .164 167 33 18 24 4 0 6
2024vs Right .237 152 36 9 33 3 0 3
2023vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-2%
ERA at Home
2025
 
 
-100%
ERA on Road
2024
 
 
-14%
ERA on Road
2023
No Stats
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2023Home 2.79 0.97 48.1 3 1 0 9.5 2.6 1.3
Since 2023Away 2.86 1.16 44.0 2 2 0 7.0 3.5 0.6
2025Home 1.38 1.08 13.0 1 0 0 11.1 2.8 0.7
2025Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024Home 3.31 0.93 35.1 2 1 0 8.9 2.5 1.5
2024Away 2.86 1.16 44.0 2 2 0 7.0 3.5 0.6
2023Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Shane Baz compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
4.00
 
K/9
11.1
 
BB/9
2.8
 
HR/9
0.7
 
Fastball
96.7 mph
 
ERA
1.38
 
WHIP
1.08
 
BABIP
.303
 
GB/FB
1.50
 
Left On Base
95.2%
 
Exit Velocity
83.5 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.8%
 
Spin Rate
2491 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
20.6%
 
Swinging Strike
10.9%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Baz underwent Tommy John surgery in late September of 2022 and did not pitch in 2023. That was the culmination of a journey which saw him reach the big leagues for good in June of 2022 before going down with an injury just one month and six starts later. The pitcher and the club had hoped to avoid surgery, but succumbed two months later. The 2024 season will see Baz make just his 10th career start at the big league level, and even dating back to his minor league days, has never pitched more than 82 innings in any one season. His career 21.7% K-BB rate and .216 opponents batting average is very enticing, but a 24-year old with zero track record of durability coming back from a major surgery makes him a significant gamble for fantasy managers playing the risk/reward game in drafts. Baz has SP3 upside, but it is highly unlikely he wlll provide enough workload to justify drafting him as such. Set expectations for 100 innings and you should be fine.
If you play in a reset league format, you can stop reading this outlook. If you are in a keeeper or a dynasty league, you are unlikely to see any work out of Baz at the big league level in 2023 as he recovers from a late September Tommy John Surgery. It is unfair to compare the situation to Tyler Glasnow as that surgery happened in early August. That then puts us into the Justin Verlander high bar of returning after a year off and winning the Cy Young award. Baz is an extremely talented arm whose high water mark for innings in a single season, even when combining minors and majors, is 92 innings in 2021. He hsa worked just over 40 innings as a big league pitcher and has given up 1.8 homers per nine innings in that time, so perhaps the long rehab process can give him a sorely needed changeup or maybe even reset his career path to a dominant reliever as he was once projected in his time with Pittsburgh.
Unfortunately, Baz needed surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow early in spring training, and it seems like we'll be waiting until at least May for him to rejoin the big-league rotation. He throws four pitches, all of which get whiffs and all of which are thrown much harder than league average -- his 83-mph curveball is his slowest pitch. His fastball, slider and curveball are particularly elite offerings. Baz dominated at Double-A, Triple-A and the majors last season, building up to 94.1 total innings. He logged elite strikeout rates (north of 36%), elite walk rates (no worse than 6.2%) and elite batting averages against (no worse than .190). There is nothing from a skill standpoint that should give redraft or dynasty managers pause, but this elbow procedure will likely prevent him from building up past 120 innings this season. The Rays will probably send Baz to Triple-A once fully healthy so that he can get stretched out and essentially simulate his lost spring training.
While Baz didn't get to take part in a normal 2020 minor-league season, he did receive chances to face big-league bats during the summer, and the Rays undoubtedly kept a close eye on the prospect at their alternate training site. The 21-year-old hasn't pitched above Low-A, where he cruised to a 2.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with an 87:37 K:BB across 81.1 innings in 2019, but his stuff remains electric and could result in him being fast-tracked to the majors. Baz's command is something to watch in the coming years, as he hasn't finished with a walk rate below 10% in his first three seasons of professional ball. It's also worrisome that Baz remains with Tampa Bay, as the organization tends to ruin the development of potential top-end starters.
The player to be named later in the infamous Chris Archer trade, Baz now carries more real-life and dynasty-league value than Archer. A 6-foot-2 righty whose fastball touches triple-digits with nasty late movement, Baz's development has gone better with the Rays than it would have with the Pirates -- he ditched his two-seamer for a four-seamer and started favoring his 70-grade slider over his average curveball. Unfortunately for fantasy purposes, Tampa Bay is arguably the worst non-Rockies franchise for a non-elite pitching prospect to come up in. Most teams would give Baz every chance to develop into a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, but the Rays could very easily opt to use him in a role that suppresses his fantasy value. He has never logged a walk rate below 10%, and he will need to improve his below-average command by at least a full grade to ultimately end up as a traditional starter.
One of the better PTBNL in recent memory, it was announced in mid-August that Baz was heading to Tampa Bay as the third and final piece in the Chris Archer trade. The 6-foot-3 righty was the No. 12 overall pick in 2017 and received a $4.1 million bonus, but has yet to pitch above rookie ball and has not always produced results typically associated with high-end pitching prospects. His best stretch was 10 starts in the Appalachian League prior to the trade, when he had a 26.1 K% and 62.0 GB% -- his K% would have ranked eighth and his GB% would have ranked second in the league. However, he made two more Appy League starts after the trade, the first of which tanked his statistics (5 ER in 1.1 IP). Baz's monster mid-90s fastball is a worm killer that misses plenty of bats. He also has two breaking balls with plus potential and a developing changeup. It is a frontline arsenal, but if he doesn't throw more strikes he will end up in the bullpen.
A prep righty with a plus-plus fastball and the potential for a plus slider and plus curveball, Baz's upside is up there with any pitcher from the 2017 draft class (non MacKenzie Gore division). The Pirates landed the electric Texan with the 12th pick and a slightly over-slot $4.1 million bonus, and he was sent to debut as the youngest pitcher in the Gulf Coast League two weeks after his 18th birthday. Naturally there were some early struggles, most notably a 19:14 K:BB and a .289 batting average against. This actually opens up an opportunity for dynasty-league owners, as Baz could have been an extremely trendy option in drafts if he had gone out and shoved, but because his box score statistics were somewhat underwhelming, he could end up being one of this year's bargains. At 6-foot-3, 190 pounds, he has a prototypical starter's frame. His command needs some work, and his secondaries need refining, but he meets most of the requirements we look for in future frontline starters.
More Fantasy News
Fans six in no-decision
PTampa Bay Rays
April 8, 2025
Baz allowed two runs on three hits and four walks over seven innings in a no-decision Tuesday. He struck out six during the loss to the Angels.
ANALYSIS
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Dazzles in impressive win
PTampa Bay Rays
April 1, 2025
Baz (1-0) earned the win Tuesday against the Pirates after tossing six scoreless innings while allowing seven hits and striking out 10.
ANALYSIS
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Encouraged despite tough results
PTampa Bay Rays
March 13, 2025
Baz was happy with his outing Thursday against the Nationals despite allowing four earned runs on five hits with two strikeouts and no walks across 4.1 innings, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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Throws 50 pitches in spring debut
PTampa Bay Rays
March 3, 2025
Baz threw three scoreless innings while striking out two, walking one and allowing two hits in Sunday's Grapefruit League game.
ANALYSIS
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Reaches deal with Tampa Bay
PTampa Bay Rays
January 9, 2025
Baz and the Rays avoided arbitration Thursday by agreeing to a one-year, $1.45 million deal, Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 Houston reports.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Return unlikely
PTampa Bay Rays
August 11, 2022
Baz is out with a right elbow sprain and is unlikely to return for the Rays before the end of the season, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
ANALYSIS
Baz is a couple of weeks away from beginning a throwing program, making the likelihood of a return this year slim. The 23-year-old made six starts for Tampa Bay and four for Triple-A Durham before suffering the injury. While he accumulated a 5.00 ERA across 27 innings for the Rays, he had an excellent four-start stretch where he allowed just three runs in 22.1 innings while striking out 26 batters. Tampa Bay will exercise extreme caution with Baz down the stretch, but he figures to be a significant part of the team's plans in 2023.
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