This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
As the second half of the NBA season gets underway, Joe Bartel surveys the futures market and lays out some of his favorite value plays.
Myles Turner to win Defensive Player of the Year (+600)
Full disclosure, I'm 100 percent trying to will this bet into existence after finding Turner's DPOY odds at +4000 to start the season. Even at +600 I still like the number, though I confess it seems increasingly likely Rudy Gobert will run away with the award.
There's good reason for that, considering Gobert is on pace to set a career-high in blocks while playing on the league's best team. The fact he's doing all of that and playing significantly fewer minutes than previous years probably reinforces his footing in the DPOY rankings as well.
Truthfully, anyone interested in taking these odds should wait a week or two considering the Pacers face a gauntlet of an upcoming schedule. A West-coast swing sees the Pacers taking on the Lakers, Suns and Nuggets before coming home for a one-game stint against the Nets. They'll then take to the road again for the next three games, challenging the Heat twice and Bucks once before finally arriving back home to take on the Pistons.
Already three games below .500, that 10-day stretch might see the Pacers realistically favored in two of those contests. But after that, Indiana has just seven games remaining against teams who are even one game over .500 which should give Turner plenty of opportunities to pile on to his league-leading block numbers. If the Pacers can somehow survive this upcoming stretch and hang around in position for a top-six seed, Turner's historic block figures could make for a compelling DPOY case, especially if the Jazz struggle to maintain their hold on the top seed in the Western Conference.
Philadelphia 76ers to win Eastern Conference (+500)
The Nets are rightfully viewed as the favorites to walk out of the East. Myself and five other of my colleagues all agreed in RotoWire's latest NBA roundtable the Nets were the top dog in the conference.
Yet I can't help but wonder what would happen if Kevin Durant's hamstring issues persist longer than we might anticipate. As it stands, James Harden and Kyrie Irving have already been forced to take on an inordinate amount of the workload to keep the Nets in contention which surely will factor into an elongated postseason run. Any veteran buyout mercenaries will help, obviously, but it's not as if a broken down Blake Griffin, and other ring chasers, can really erase all that wear and tear from the duo, especially if Durant's absence is longer than anticipated
Quietly, the 76ers have coalesced into a dominant unit led by MVP front-runner Joel Embiid. There's obvious concerns when it comes to projecting an extended postseason run from the 76ers, mainly who would be the team's second scorer in the event someone in the NBA figures out how to slow down the aforementioned big man.
It's entirely possible that question could be answered at the trade deadline, especially with the bevy of young pieces the 76ers have at their disposal. I don't think we'll ever know how "available" Bradley Beal might be, but the Wizards All-Star immediately comes to mind as a player who could push the team's title odds higher than GME stock.
But even if Philadelphia stands pat, the amount of depth the team has should make the No. 1 seed an attainable feat. The difference between facing the Celtics, Heat, Pacers or (gulp) Knicks in Round 2, as opposed to the Nets or Bucks, is definitely not inconsequential. I'm considering this essentially getting in on the ground floor, especially if you believe the 76ers could be buyers at the trade deadline.
Washington Wizards to miss the playoffs (-400)
I don't really know what to say other than I was shocked this was even a betting option. If LaMelo Ball at -500 is a solid bet for Rookie of the Year (and it is) then there's absolutely no reason to miss out on this opportunity.
Admittedly, the play-in tournament complicates things. The Wizards could look at the play of Beal and Russell Westbrook and think the No. 8 seed is attainable. At the moment, Washington is somehow just 4.0 games back from the No. 4 seed. Beal is incredible. Westbrook is... incredible on certain occasions.
That being said, I think NBA teams are getting smarter. It might not benefit teams to truly tank anymore with the changing lottery odds, but the days in which lottery-esque teams make foolish trades for the right to get swept in the first round seem to be mercifully ending.
The Wizards are platooning Robin Lopez and Moritz Wagner at center while players like Garrison Mathews and Raul Neto are seeing quality minutes. They just aren't good, and I think the Wizards know that. I still contend it's reasonably possible the Wizards could trade Beal before the deadline. If that happens, they would instantly transition into tank-mode, all but sealing up this bet.
