FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

Friday night brings us a seven-game ledger that unfortunately features some notable names on the injury report, with some of the absences already confirmed. However, there is plenty of offense expected by oddsmakers. And with a manageable 14 teams in action, the decision-making process for both cash games and tournaments becomes more streamlined.

Slate Overview

Here's a closer look at the three games with the highest projected totals: 

Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers (Projected total: 232.5 points) 

The Grizzlies are giving up 113.2 points per road game, while the Trail Blazers are right above them while surrendering 113.6 per home contest. Each squad also puts up plenty of points, with Memphis actually averaging just under eight additional points per road game (117.6) than home contest (109.8) and Portland putting up 113.6 per Moda Center tilt. Damian Lillard is also off the injury report for the Blazers. And although Jonas Valanciunas' absence due to a concussion is certainly significant in terms of Memphis' offensive upside, the availability of Jaren Jackson helps mitigate some of that. 

Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder (Projected total: 230.5 points)

These teams just combined for 226 points two games ago. Although the Wizards have been playing better defense of late, they're still yielding the third-most points per game (118.0) and playing at an NBA-high pace of 107.7 possessions per contest. Washington has notably been a considerably less potent offensive team on the road (110.8 PPG) than home (117.2), but OKC is yielding over six more points per game on its home floor (117.6) than when traveling (111.4). Luguentz Dort could miss another game for the Thunder with his hip injury and Rui Hachimura will remain out due to a kneecap injury for the visitors, but each team still boasts plenty of firepower.

Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets (Projected total: 229.5 points) 

There's a big injury question mark on each side, as Jaylen Brown and Kevin Durant are both questionable with shoulder and quadriceps injuries, respectively. The teams combined for 230 points the last time they met, a game Durant missed but James Harden - who'll remain out Friday - suited up for. Brooklyn has scored 134 and 103 points during Durant's current absence, while Boston put up 99 without Brown against the Suns on Thursday. It's also worth noting the Nets have been a bit more vulnerable of late with 117.3 points per contest allowed in the last three, while Boston - which gives up 112.0 points per road contest - has tightened up with only 100.7 points per game given up in their last three. 

Injury Situations to Monitor  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate. 

James Harden, BKN (hamstring)/ Status: OUT 

Harden's ongoing absence should continue to lead to very elevated usage for the likes of Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris while Landry Shamet should also enjoy an expanded role.

Kawhi Leonard, LAC (foot)/ Status: OUT 

Leonard's continued absence will lead to elevated usage for Paul George and Marcus Morris in particular, while Luke Kennard - who posted 28 points in a start Wednesday - should continue stating at small forward. 

Trae Young, ATL (ankle)/ Status: OUT 

In Young's absence, Brandon Goodwin - who delivered 33.0 and 30.5 FD points in a pair of spot starts earlier in April - will return to the first unit at point guard while the usage of the remaining members of the starting five will also see a notable boost.

Kevin Durant, BKN (thigh)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE

If Durant is unable to suit up for a third straight game, Landry Shamet could be a primary beneficiary.

Clint Capela, ATL (back)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

If Capela is unable to suit up, Onyeka Okongwu would likely draw a start at center while the remainder of the Hawks' starting five would see a major usage boost with Trae Young (ankle) also ruled out. 

Jaylen Brown, BOS (shoulder)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

If Brown were to sit out a second consecutive game, Romeo Langford could remain in the starting five. 

Jonas Valanciunas, MEM (concussion)/ Status: OUT 

In Valanciunas' ongoing absence Friday, Xavier Tillman - who's already produced 44.3 and 31.4 FD points during his teammate's first two absences - would get another run with the first unit.   

Other notable injuries: 

Gordon Hayward, CHA (foot)/ Status: OUT 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC (foot)/ Status: OUT 

Kevin Porter, HOU (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT 

Victor Oladipo, MIA (knee)/ Status: OUT 

Evan Fournier, BOS (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT 

Luguentz Dort, OKC (hip)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Tyler Herro, MIA (foot)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Robert Williams, BOS (knee)/ Status: GTD 

Monte Morris, DEN (hamstring)/ Status: OUT 

Taurean Prince, CLE (ankle)/ Status: OUT 

Rui Hachimura, WAS (kneecap)/ Status: OUT 

Danuel House, HOU (ankle)/ Status: PROBABLE 

Eric Gordon, HOU (groin)/ Status: GTD 

Danilo Gallinari, ATL (foot)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Malik Monk, CHA (ankle)/ Status: OUT 

Cam Reddish, ATL (Achilles)/ Status: OUT 

De'Andre Hunter, ATL (knee)/ Status: OUT 

Serge Ibaka, LAC (back)/ Status: OUT

Elite Players

We have three healthy players with five-figure salaries on Friday's slate: Nikola Jokic ($11,300), Russell Westbrook ($11.000) and Stephen Curry ($10,000)

Jokic has already scored over 60 FD points twice in his first four outings without Jamal Murray (knee) and is in an excellent matchup versus a Warriors team bringing a notable bump in pace and just surrendered 55.4 FD points to Jokic on Apr. 12. Westbrook compiled 52.7 FD points versus the Thunder two games ago and hasn't been under 52 FD points in six straight. Curry's jaw-dropping hot streak finally hit a speed bump versus the Wizards on Wednesday when he shot just 7-for-25 from the floor. However, he's averaged 52.9 FD points in the previous 11 while shooting just under 50.0 percent from deep. 

Players with salaries in the high four figures capable of also delivering elite scores include Kyrie Irving ($9,700), Jayson Tatum ($9,500), Paul George ($9,400), Jimmy Butler ($9,300) and Bradley Beal ($9,000). 

Irving is averaging 54.3 FD points per 36 minutes without Harden and Durant on the floor this season, so he'll once again have a chance to outpace his salary if KD is sidelined for another contest. Tatum has gone just 3-for-17 from the floor each of the last two games, but he's drained 53.6 percent of his attempts in the six games prior and has a tally of 42.5 FD points in one of his two most recent encounters versus Brooklyn. George will come into Friday well-rested after sitting out Wednesday for load management and is averaging 45.9 FD points per 36 minutes with Leonard off the floor. Butler will be facing a short-handed Hawks team and just put up 65.0 FD points two games ago, while Beal faces a Thunder side he posted 45.2 FD points against recently and is averaging 45.4 FD points per contest over the last six. 

Expected Chalk

In addition to the players just mentioned in the prior section, other likely chalk plays include:

CJ McCollum, POR ($7,800)

McCollum could still be popular even with Lillard back.

Clint Capela ($9,300)

Capela would be immensely popular due to Young's absence if able to suit up. 

Kevin Huerter, ATL ($5,400)

Huerter's another player who would benefit considerably from Young's absence and has a salary that hasn't budged in several games despite strong performances.

John Collins, ATL ($7,200) 

The talented forward's salary remains reasonable and should take on more offensive workload with Young out.

Xavier Tillman, MEM ($5,000) 

Tillman's strong first two starts in Valanciunas' stead and a very reasonable salary should result in plenty of clicks on his name.

Luke Kennard, LAC ($5,000)

Kennard's 28-point tally in his last appearance is likely still fresh on DFS players' minds.

Landry Shamet, BKN ($4,800)

Shamet could be in plenty of rosters if Durant sits again.

Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL ($7,100)

Bogdanovic's recent solid body of work and Young's absence project to make the Serb very popular on a seven-game slate.

Key Values 

Kyle Anderson, MEM at POR ($6,300)

Anderson has both a favorable overall matchup and also stands to benefit from the absence of Jonas Valanciunas, as he averages 36.9 FD points per 36 minutes without the big man this season. Anderson already comes in averaging 34.6 FD points over his last 13 games, with his ability to stuff the stat sheet paying off consistently this season. The Trail Blazers also make for excellent targets considering their defensive deficiencies described earlier and the fact they've allowed 47.3 FD points per contest to power forwards across the last 10.

Marcus Morris, LAC at HOU ($5,700)

Morris has been on a tear during Kawhi Leonard's recent absences, averaging 31.8 FD points per contest over the last six while shooting a blistering 57.6 percent - including 59.5 percent from deep. The veteran sports a 23.4 percent usage rate and averages 32.9 FD points per 36 minutes with Kawhi unavailable this season and gets a prime matchup against a Rockets team that's allowed the most rebounds per game (56.6), along with 47.0 FD points per game to power forwards in the last five. Houston is also surrendering the fifth-highest three-point percentage (37.9), certainly another good sign for a potential Morris breakout.

Daniel Gafford, WAS at OKC ($5,300)

Alex Len continues to be listed atop the depth chart at center in Washington, but it's Gafford who's been outpacing him in minutes off the bench in multiple games of late and offering much more consistent production. The former Bulls' draft choice is averaging 27.3 FD points per contest since arriving in Washington while putting up 12.2 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.1 blocks during that span and shooting 67.2 percent. Gafford just produced a 19-point, 10-rebound double-double in only 24 minutes against the Warriors on Wednesday and tallied 22 FD points in just 16 minutes against this same Thunder squad two games ago. OKC is also allowing 43.2 FD points per game over the last 10 to centers, along with the fourth-highest offensive efficiency to the position (34.1 percent) and the second highest in the paint (60.5 percent). The latter figure is particularly relevant when considering Gafford, as just under 81.0 percent of his scoring comes from that part of the floor.

Other value plays to consider: Norman Powell, POR vs. MEM ($6,200); Jaren Jackson, MEM at POR ($5,800); Moses Brown, OKC vs. WAS ($5,700); Ivica Zubac, LAC at HOU ($5,600); Kevin Huerter, ATL vs. MIA ($5,400); Xavier Tillman, MEM at POR ($5,000); Luke Kennard, LAC at HOU ($5,000)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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