This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Wednesday was one of the weirder slates in recent memory with foul trouble, late injuries and teams inexplicably no showing all factoring into an uneven day. Most of the bets did fine, but Terry Rozier, of course, had a career day, and the double-double combo that had been so automatic as of late fell apart, much to my chagrin. Hopefully, the luck can turn around in Saturday's five-game slate, which features a full assortment of props for each team.
Points Props
First up on the docket is a classic case of betting the number. Deandre Ayton has been more of a scoring threat as of late, averaging 16.0 points over the last three games, but I think targeting his 13.5-point under (-105) is the right call. The 76ers allow 16.5 points to centers this season, the fewest in the league. The second fewest in terms of points allowed to centers is the Magic, who jump all the way up to 18.4 points per game. That's a massive difference in points, and one that I think underscores Joel Embiid's dominance from a defensive perspective.
I'm also taking the under when it comes to 11.5 points for Cam Reddish (-106). I'm not sure if it's the Achilles injury or something else, but Reddish has put together two of his three lowest minute totals since taking over as the starting small forward for De'Andre Hunter (knee). The 21-year-old has also scored over 11 points just once in the last seven games. I know the Pacers struggle defending small forwards, but this number feels far too high for the type of usage Reddish is getting at the moment.
Since Jimmy Butler returned from a lengthy absence due to COVID-19 health and safety protocols, the forward is averaging 22.6 points, 8.6 rebounds and 8.6 assists over the course of seven games. DraftKings has priced up the rebounds and assists, but it is still lagging on the points for whatever reason. Targeting the 20.5-point over (-110) feels like a great opportunity to catch the curve before it rises too high, and it doesn't hurt that the Jazz's main defensive weakness seems to be at forward (allow 10th-most points to SFs).
There's a couple of overs from a points/rebounds/assists (PRA) perspective that betters should also look to target. Kyrie Irving just scored 35 points against the Pacers on Wednesday, so yes, targeting his 35.5 PRA total (-117) makes sense. Kevin Durant (health and safety protocol) did not play in that contest, so, of course, Irving's scoring will be more limited Saturday. Still, I think that only opens up the possibility for more assists. On the off chance Irving catches fire from the floor once again, you're looking at a PRA that could hit on the scoring alone.
The same could be said for targeting Donovan Mitchell's 36.5 PRA over (-110). In the last three games with Mike Conley (hamstring) sidelined, Mitchell is averaging 29.7 points, 6.0 rebounds and 9.3 assists. Now that the veteran guard has been confirmed out, it's time to the over before DraftKings can change anything.
Points/Rebounds Props
Chris Paul (hamstring) returned to the lineup after a brief one-game absence Friday, which essentially signaled the end of a brief stint of Devin Booker as the primary facilitator. If you count every game in which both Paul and Booker have been healthy, the latter has gone over 4.5 assists just eight times this season, so taking the under when it comes to that figure (-115) is a relatively easy call. The 76ers have also been sieve-like when it comes to stopping opposing SGs from scoring, so I suspect a heavy-dose of Booker from a shooting perspective, further limiting his assist opportunities.
I'm a little bit wary about this because we know Clint Capela can be a rebounding force and the Pacers shockingly struggle containing centers on the glass, but 14.5 (under, -115) feels way too high. To be fair to the Hawks center, the 26-year-old has gone over that figure twice in the last four games, but he's played just 21 minutes each in his most recent two games. Maybe Atlanta is just experimenting with their rotation a bit more with Hunter sidelined for an extended time, or perhaps using both Capela and John Collins is becoming noticeably detrimental to their defense. Whatever the reason, I think attacking the under makes sense given the recent data we have.
See above relating to Mitchell's total PRA. Targeting the over at 5.5 assists (-121) feels like a safe with Conley out.
Best Bets
- Kyrie Irving over 35.5 points/rebounds/assists (-117)
- Clint Capela under 14.5 rebounds (-115)
- Deandre Ayton under 13.5 points (-105)
