Using RotoWire's trusty NBA DFS projections and our wide array of tools, I will make a deep dive into the player pool and present our best plays for DraftKings' six-game slate. There are several spots (Milwaukee, Indiana) that warrant an extra look later in the day, as injury scenarios will crystallize after shootarounds conclude. Be ready to pivot for value if the right situations present themselves.
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Although the Wizards and Pacers are heavy underdogs, we may be able to find some last-minute value from them as injury situations are updated. We are also interested in determining whether a key New York absence will come to pass. We've given Phoenix more attention as the Timberwolves scramble to find answers amid Anthony Edwards' absence, and although we were a little light on the ORL/OKC matchup, you'll be able to find some options there.
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OKC - OUT: Jalen Williams (hamstring)
The Thunder have shuffled the lineup frequently at the off-guard spot and moved over players to cover for Williams. The scenario dilutes the potential options and makes a pivot an undesirable call.
WAS - OUT: Kyshawn George (elbow), Leaky Black (ankle) QUESTIONABLE: Trae Young (quad), Alex Sarr (hamstring)
The back-to-back scenario makes it unlikely that we'll see Young, who left Monday's game early after taking a tumble. Sarr is a more likely participant, as he was given a rest day on the front end of the set.
MIA - QUESTIONABLE: Bam Adebayo (calf)
I'd be surprised if Bam is ruled out, but it's still a situation worth monitoring. Jaime Jaquez ($6,400) gets a boost if Adebayo is out.
IND: DOUBTFUL: Pascal Siakam (knee) QUESTIONABLE: Andrew Nembhard (calf), T.J. McConnell (hamstring), Quenton Jackson (calf), Obi Toppin (foot), Micah Potter (triceps, Aaron Nesmith (ankle), Ivica Zubac (ankle)
As you can see, production from the Pacers will be very hard to estimate. It's possible for any of these questionable tags to lift, but I'll identify Kam Jones ($3,800) as a guard pivot since there are so many question marks at the position. Jarace Walker ($7,100) might be in the best possible position as one of the only fully healthy players on the roster.
NYK - QUESTIONABLE: Jalen Brunson (ankle, neck)
Brunson may get a night off against the short-handed Pacers. The Knicks should have no problem handling Indiana without Brunson's help. Landry Shamet ($3,700) is a decent pivot if Brunson is out.
CLE - OUT: Jarrett Allen(knee) QUESTIONABLE: Sam Merrill (hamstring)
I expect Merrill to be back for the Cavs. Evan Mobley ($8,800) will continue to be a solid nightly option during Allen's absence.
MIL - QUESTIONABLE: Giannis Antetokounmpo (ankle), Myles Turner (calf), Ousmane Dieng (illness)
All of these tags could just be precautionary. We'll need to search for new details after shootaround, but it's worth noting that the quality of the opponent may keep us away.
PHX - OUT: Dillon Brooks (hand), Mark Williams (foot)
It'll be business as usual in this scenario, as Oso Ighodaro ($5,100) and Royce O'Neale ($5,200) will continue in their adjusted roles.
MIN - OUT: Anthony Edwards (knee) QUESTIONABLE: Naz Reid (shoulder)
Ayo Dosunmu ($4,700) has looked good in relief of Edwards. We don't know enough about Reid's condition to make an educated guess, but the frontcourt starters will get less support if he's out.
Elite NBA DFS Players
Guards
Devin Booker, PHX ($8,700) @ MIN
While we shouldn't expect too many nights similar to his recent 40-point explosion in his last game, Booker gets a nod while the Timberwolves remain vulnerable without Edwards' services. The spot sets up well for Booker as Minnesota's defensive downgrade without Edwards should give the All-Star plenty of opportunities.
Donovan Mitchell, CLE ($9,800) @ MIL
While James Harden is also worth considering, I would rather spend the extra $500 and get a more dependable line from Mitchell. He'll usually be able to match a great night of shooting with solid assist numbers, and he doesn't have the same kind of swings that Harden experiences in secondary categories.
Forwards/Centers
Evan Mobley, CLE ($8,800) @ MIL
We already mentioned Mobley in the injury selection, but I bring him up again as one of the best big men to consider against a Milwaukee frontcourt that may experience a number of absences. The Cavs are heavy favorites, and I would consider a stack with Mitchell without hesitation.
Chet Holmgren, OKC ($8,500) @ ORL
Holmgren had a productive 16/10 double-double during his last matchup with the Magic. We've also seen some noticeable spikes in production over the past few weeks, but he'll need more than 16 points to eat 5x value at this salary.
Julius Randle, MIN ($7,700) vs. PHX
The pressure will be on Randle if he doesn't have Naz Reid to spell him. We should see a heightened minute total if Reid's tag holds, and it'll be a challenge for O'Neale and Ighodaro to keep him contained.
Expected NBA DFS Chalk
Josh Hart, NYK ($6,300) vs. IND
While guys like Mobley and Randle will yield high ownership, the combination of a favorable salary and the potential absence of Jalen Brunson will lead many to look in Hart's direction. Hart tends to stick around during blowout wins, and he's a bit more flexible than other options we could consider as Brunson pivots. The salary sits right next to the DraftKings median and will be too hard to pass up for most.
Mid-Range NBA DFS Picks
Jalen Green, PHX ($6,900) @ MIN
While a Booker/Green stack is too ambitious, Green's salary and scoring potential against the Timberwolves make him a reasonable candidate to consider. I would take an either-or approach here, beginning with Booker and then pivoting to Green if you face a serious salary crunch toward the end of your build.
Donte DiVincenzo, MIN ($5,700) vs. PHX
I expect a boost in usage and production from DiVincenzo with Edwards out, and he joins Dosunmu as two high-profile budget selections for the slate. Due to Dosunmu's recent production, I expect the fill-in to have a higher rostership, so DiVincenzo might be the better option for GPP formats.
NBA DFS Value Picks
Tobias Harris, DET ($5,600) @ WAS
Harris has struggled with a hip issue, but it's exactly why I'm considering him after a day of rest. Harris will likely be faded due to the lingering injury. He was given a day of rest and came back with a solid 31.3-DKFP performance against the Raptors, and likely had some time back in Detroit before heading to Washington.
Bilal Coulibaly, WAS ($5,000) vs. DET
Although the Wizards are facing a tough opponent, Coulibaly's numbers indicate strong upside potential. His rebound numbers have been quite solid, and he's blown up with some impressive scoring totals over the past week. The short-handed Wizards will need support from their healthy members, and Coulibaly fits that bill.
Also consider: Ajay Mitchell, OKC ($5,000) @ ORL
