This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Sunday's three-game NBA slate also starts early at 3 p.m. EST, so if you plan on playing, get those rosters in.
Slim slates like these often play themselves, but if you plan on cashing in a GPP, you've got to go contrarian as much as possible, as there will likely be some tie scores that ultimately cut up the prize pool. Cash lineups will also bunch up considerably, and you need almost as much contrarian thought there as well.
Assembling a decent lineup is also eased by the complete lack of 10K-plus talent, with Nikola Jokic ($10,200) as the lone exception. I'd lock him as a pace-setting cash pick against the Clippers, but I predict ownership in the 70-80 percent range, so you'll want to go another way in your GPPs. The only thing that could break your GPP lineup is a 70-point day from Jokic. It's certainly possible, but he hasn't seen a number over 64 DKFP recently (though that's nothing to sneeze at).
LAMARCUS ALDRIDGE (illness) PROBABLE: Aldridge wasn't going to be part of my game plan anyway, but he may come out of the gate a bit sluggish, leaving me to give Rudy Gay ($5,700) a little bit extra consideration at a reasonable price. If I wanted to go really low, Davis Bertans ($3,700) might be a decent spot against an injury-depleted Knicks frontcourt (see below).
DeAndre Jordan (ankle) DOUBTFUL: Mitchell Robinson ($4,600) will get the start here, but you're likely to get a solid dose of Noah Vonleh ($3,900) as well. I wouldn't expect too much from this position against the Spurs, though.
FADE THE KNICKS BACKCOURT: Aside from the presence of Dennis Smith Jr ($6,800), this situation is just a mess. They sent Kadeem Allen packing to the G-League to get Emmanuel Mudiay back in the lineup, and when you factor in coach David Fitzdale's tinkering whims, there's no telling who will benefit here. Sure, there's plenty of potential value with guys like Dotson and Trier, but can you predict how Fitzdale will utilize them with Mudiay back? DSJ is your only option here.
Let's get to our predictions. I'll endeavor to include an elite player, a mid-range target and a low-cost value play at each position.
GUARD
DeMar DeRozan, SA at NY ($8,100): I favor DeRozan over Lowry at the top of the guard list primarily because Lowry's sole game against the Magic was a major disappointment. Orlando is no slouch defensively, and I feel like DeRozan has a higher likelihood of giving us a worthy stat line, despite the lack of history versus New York. He put up 44 DKFP in his revenge game against the Raptors two days ago, and I think he'll be well-rested and ready for a substantial number. He will be one of my spend-up anchors for a majority of my lineups.
Evan Fournier, ORL at TOR ($5,800): You could always pivot down to Terrence Ross ($5,300) here, but I like spending $500 more for the guaranteed starter, who's been giving owners a spike in assist totals along with a consistent scoring floor. If he gets hot from 3-point range, Fournier could end up as the biggest surprise for your lineup. Toronto ranks 10th in defense versus the long-range ball, but I still think Fournier can get open.
With the addition of Isiah Thomas into the mix, we're faced with a plethora of options for the Denver backcourt, which makes it harder and harder to justify spending up on Jamal Murray ($6,300). Among Beasley, Morris and Thomas I would still favor Malik Beasley ($4,700) as your best option, but I'm more inclined to fade the Nuggets backcourt altogether in favor for a guy like Patrick Beverley ($4,500) or Danny Green ($4,100), who logged more minutes than Jeremy Lin for VanVleet's replacement in Toronto.
FORWARD
Try as I might, I can't get behind the $9,500 price tag for Kawhi Leonard against the Magic. I know that he'll make me eat my words any day now, but I still have to fade him. While he's putting up consistent numbers, they aren't $9,500 numbers. I need more than 40 DKFP numbers for that price, as I can get 40 from teammate Pascal Siakam ($7,100) for $2,400 less. So, at the top, it's Siakam for me here.
We're also faced with a bit of a decision in the Denver backcourt. Paul Millsap's ($6,100) numbers have boosted up considerably, but can we really ignore Mason Plumlee ($5,000) as his backup with Trey Lyles (hamstring) sidelined? Your only question here is whether or not the $1,100 price difference is worth the decrease in production you might get from Plumlee. Both players have so-so numbers against the Clippers, but nothing to speak of in the post-Tobias Harris era so you can essentially disregard those totals. Millsap has been on a roll, but I believe Plumlee has a more reliable floor. My verdict? Millsap for GPP, Plumlee for cash.
Jonathan Isaac, ORL at TOR ($6,000): He put up a clunker of a game against the Bulls, but the sophomore forward is packed with undeniable skills, especially on the defensive end. He can fill up those ancillary categories with steals and blocks, and if you excise his four-point performance against Chicago, he's been a consistent scorer as well. I expect slightly lower ownership after his last game and is worth a GPP consideration at the very least.
Kevin Knox, NY vs. SA ($5,200): I'm not one to make guesses about David Fitzdale, but I suspect we'll see a bit more action from Knox with DeAndre Jordan sidelined. Knox's length and speed can tend to be highly overlooked on this lottery-bound squad, and he'd have a much higher profile on a contending team. I wouldn't brand this pick as super-dependable, but he's definitely worth a pass in a GPP lineup.
CENTER
If you're a believer in Jokic tonight, then I don't have any advice for you, but I like Nikola Vucevic ($9,700) at a slight discount. Marc Gasol has looked just so-so underneath the basket for the Raptors, and while both Siakam and Serge Ibaka will provide resistance, I think we'll see Vucevic come close to the 57 DKFP average he's posted against the Raptors this season. I'm not against the idea of spending up for Jokic against the Clippers by any means, as both could take over their respective games. Heck, you could roster them both, and stick one of them in the utility spot. It may be that kind of night.
I really can't endorse many more people at this spot with any confidence, but the duo of Montrezl Harrell ($6,600) and Ivica Zubac ($4,200) deserve some discussion. Zubac hasn't done much since joining the Nuggets, but it's worth noting that Zubac has a one-inch height advantage on Jokic and is essentially L.A.'s best line of defense against Denver's big man, who could utterly destroy the boards tonight. While I think Jokic will win this fight, I expect Zubac to see more minutes than usual, and he could very well meet value at this price. Meanwhile, Harrell has one double-double against the Nuggets and should also have a decent game, but I'm more inclined to give Siakam a run at the four and would never really think about Harrell at the center slot in our lineups.
I know that this article lacks the streamlined structure of my other advice columns, but I think the additional discussion about these spots were warranted to give you the maximum coverage for this slim slate.
