This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
DraftKings' featured slate has excluded the early game between the Nets and the Clippers, so we'll also leave it out of our predictions today and focus on the nine-game slate that begins at 7 PM Eastern.
First, I'll briefly review last night's action. My Victor Oladipo pick was a huge disappointment and ultimately kept me from any GPP cashes, but my cash games all came through thanks to spot-on picks of D'Angelo Russell, Jaren Jackson, Josh Richardson and Anthony Davis.
Now, on to Saturday's slate! Let's first take a look at what's relevant injury-wise. Stephen Curry (groin) remains out, and Quinn Cook ($5,400) is still a decent, albeit highly-owned pivot. Cook's tenure as a starter in Curry's absence has been a bit up-and-down, so it's hard to nail down a reasonable floor. The quality of the match-up is just so-so, so I'm inclined to stay away from Cook at this price. Draymond Green (toe) will also miss this game, and while there's no clear pivot for Green, I think Kevon Looney ($3,700) is probably the most dependable alternative. I wouldn't expect miracles from any of Green's replacements, however. There are questionable tags on both Russell Westbrook (ankle) and Joel Embiid (hand), but as of this writing, it looks like both guys are slated to play.
We have a lot of teams on back-to-backs: Celtics, Raptors, Pacers, Pelicans, Nets, Kings, Sixers, Bulls.
So, almost half of the slate is affected. If you're fielding a heavy dose of contests, you simply HAVE to be vigilant with your picks and monitor the resting players. There will be a few. If you play anyone on the teams mentioned above, CHECK BACK IN.
After a grueling 129-124 win, I think the Pelicans are the most vulnerable back-to-back team despite staying at home. The Nuggets should come in and take advantage, and while I believe Nikola Jokic is a bit expensive, I really like Jamal Murray ($6,300) and Paul Millsap ($6,200), who both sit very nicely at DK's median price.
I don't expect the Sixers to be profoundly affected by the quick trip to Charlotte, and at an O/U of 227, there are various stacks I would consider. Assuming Jimmy Butler ($7,300) doesn't rest, his price is just too good to pass up. I'd wait a bit before stacking him with Embiid (another rest candidate), but I have no problem going to the well with that duo. You also can't ignore Kemba Walker ($9,500), although his price may end up being too much to swallow for me on Saturday.
Another game that should have plenty of fireworks is the Lakers-Magic matchup. LeBron James ($11,200) has become unavoidably chalky of late and is incredibly tempting. I didn't mention Rajon Rondo's (hand) injury, but as you're probably aware, he's out for a while. This is good news for Lonzo Ball ($5,400) who is priced just reasonably enough to consider. If he goes any higher in the coming weeks, I'd have to see a higher floor to field him.
With all of those situations in mind, I'll now move on and make player selections by category. I'll make three picks at each position, and a small additional list of players will accompany the highlighted targets. When possible, I will include a top-shelf player, a median target, and a low-cost value play.
GUARDS
Jrue Holiday, NO vs. DEN ($8,100): I almost went with Devin Booker here, but one look at his mediocre stat line against the Thunder led me to look at Holiday under the microscope. I know, I just said that the Pelicans look vulnerable, but if you look at Holiday's back-to-backs so far this season, there's been almost no regression on the tail end. Couple that with a respectable 42 DKFP game against the Nuggets two weeks ago and Elfrid Payton (finger) potentially missing more time, and you have a thumbs-up from me with Holiday.
Klay Thompson, GS at DAL ($7,300): This wasn't a huge jump down to median territory, but Thompson always has to be a consideration when Curry is out. He put up a clunker against the Rockets, and I suspect that it might send some people packing on Thompson, but upon excluding the Houston game you see nothing but chalk. Also, none of us have to be reminded of Thompson's potential for an explosive game. Dallas is much improved defensively, but over the past five games, they have ranked 21st against opposing off-guards, yielding massive games to Zach LaVine, Bradley Beal and Donovan Mitchell. That's good enough for me!
D.J. Augustin, ORL vs. LAL ($4,400): Bear with me here. Here's a list of point guards that the Lakers have faced in the last five games, and their DKFP numbers:
Damian Lillard (61)
Trae Young (46)
De'Aaron Fox (38)
Derrick Rose (44)
Kyle Lowry (59)
See a pattern? Now, you may say that Augustin isn't on par with any of those players, and you'd be correct in that hypothesis. It's still patently clear that the Lakers have a gaping hole defensively, and the culprit is their backcourt. James can't steward the entire court, and he's left this gate open far too often. Go with Augustin, not for Augustin's sake, but the quality of this matchup.
Additional guards to consider:Chris Paul, HOU vs. SAC ($8,200), De'Aaron Fox, SAC at HOU ($6,500), Tyreke Evans, IND vs. ATL ($3,900)
FORWARDS
A brief note before I begin at this position – I like a lot of elite guys here, and if I spend, it will likely be at forward. I already mentioned LeBron, and I will have the highest exposure with him, but I'm also going to keep my eye on Anthony Davis' ($11,100) because, well – just because. I think there's a 50/50 chance he'll rest, but do I need to explain this one? So, as a result of this reality, I'm going to dig a little deeper here and find some value so that you can play the elites.
Jabari Parker, CHI vs. TOR ($5,700): The Bulls are tired, Toronto's tough, I get all of that. Let's look at these two supposed facts and deconstruct that narrative for a moment. Would it surprise you to learn that the Bulls have a record of 1-1 on second back-to-back games? Their sole loss was against the Rockets and was entirely winnable. Would it also surprise you to learn that over the past five games, the supposedly stingy Toronto defense ranks 28th versus Parker's position? All of this is true, and more. Parker only trails Zach LaVine and Antonio Blakeney with a 25% usage rate for the Bulls, and his numbers are trending up. Some will use the 'revenge game' argument as a reason to discount his impressive Thursday against the Bucks. All I see is value.
Terrence Ross, ORL vs. LAL ($5,100): I'm not going to lie to you – this one is tough to justify, and even harder to write. Let's look under the hood of this admittedly streaky player. Minutes? Trending Up. Field-goal percentage? Trending up. Rebounding? Trending up. We've only seen a bit of scoring regression, but I think that's more dependent on shot frequency than anything else, and the pace of this matchup should be brisk enough for Ross to have plenty of looks at the basket. It's definitely a risk/reward play.
Dwight Powell, DAL vs. GS ($3,500): Powell has a good history versus the Warriors, and if you exclude the Houston game, the Warriors have given up an average of 28.5 points to backup power forwards over the past two weeks. Factor in the absence of Draymond Green and you have an excellent argument for rostering DeAndre Jordan's backup, who will also see some minutes at the four.
Additional forwards to consider: Julius Randle, NO vs. DEN ($6,500), Domantas Sabonis, IND vs. ATL ($6,400), Serge Ibaka, TOR at CHI ($6,100)
CENTERS
Steven Adams, OKC at PHO ($7,200): There are plenty of serviceable options for a lower price at this position, so I don't see a lot of motivation to spend up unless you put Davis here or Embiid if he plays. DeAndre Ayton and Adams essentially played to a draw when they last met, but Adams ultimately did have the better DKFP number. If you're looking for a reliable floor, Adams is among the best you'll find when searching for a dependable total. He's averaged a rock-solid 35.8 DKFP per game and will often provide more than that – a few outliers have affected that average somewhat.
Willie Cauley-Stein, SAC at HOU ($6,100):The idea of playing Cauley-Stein against a team like the Rockets seemed like a fool's errand last year, but the Kings are much improved, and their big man has stepped up, averaging a steady 33 DKFP per game. Clint Capela is certainly no slouch defensively, but Cauley-Stein has fared well versus Marc Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge, and JaVale McGee recently and exceeded 30 DKFP in all of those matchups. At this price, he's a great value.
Wendell Carter Jr, CHI vs. TOR: ($5,200): Wendell, I wish I could quit you. Alas, I can't, not at this price. Carter has returned to earth somewhat, but the floor is still there. He only played 25 minutes on Friday, so I think he'll be ok to play a full complement of minutes. Jonas Valanciunas can play a little dirty inside, and Carter may have his hands full, but the idea of him eclipsing 30 DKFP is certainly within the realm of possibility.
Other centers to consider:DeAndre Jordan, DAL vs. GS ($6,600), Myles Turner, IND vs, ATL ($4,600)
