The Saber's Edge: What to Watch in the Early Going

I would especially hold off on worrying about hitters. The hitters have and will continue to see each team's top pitchers with the extra early season days off. Also, hitters will struggle also with the colder weather as batted balls will not travel as far.

... Except Velocity ...

Fastball velocity stabilizes almost immediately and is the one stat that can be utilized early on in the season. I wrote in detail about this subject last season. This year, I am going to track the data in monthly spreadsheets and report when I have updated the sheet via twitter (@jeffwzimmerman).

Already, we have some seen some pitchers with a decent velocity loss from last season.

... And When it Involves Position Battles

I hate when teams make Opening Day roster decisions based off spring training stats, but they do. Teams will go with the hot hand in a position battle and not look at previous performance. Now, spring stats could be the difference maker since the two or more players were projected to have the same talent level.

Chasing the hot hand continues into the regular season. The Braves already said Arodys Vizcaino will be the closer over Jason Grilli after Grilli blew his first save opportunity.

I would especially watch for the hot hands with St. Louis' outfield and first base mix. Six players (Matt Adams, Matt Holliday, Brandon Moss, Tommy Pham, Stephen Piscotty, Randall Grichuk) are battling over four positions. Pham's value has already taken a hit since he is on the disabled list. The best place to look for some playing time battles to track is the outfield. The Braves, Dodgers, Indians, Nationals, Pirates and Blue Jays have their outfield in flux.

Fill DL Slots

If your team has DL slots and some are open, fill them with some players who you can use later. You might drop the player later as better players get hurt. In the meantime take a few chances on some hurt players who may help you later. While some players already on the DL are taken like Kang, Brantley and Darvish, other are available. Here are some of the better DL stashes who are owned in less than 20 percent of Yahoo leagues:

Devon Travis: 17%
Alex Cobb: 13%
Cameron Maybin: 6%
Josh Hamilton: 3%
Homer Bailey: 2%
Brandon McCarthy: 1%
Brett Anderson: 1%
Tommy Pham: 1%
John Lamb: 1%
Adam Ottavino: 1%

Billy Hamilton's Groundball Rate

I think Hamilton has the chance to be a difference-maker in fantasy baseball if he quits swinging for the fences. He needs to put the ball on the ground like Dee Gordon did in his breakout a few years back. I am not looking for any results except a GB/FB ratio near 3/1 instead of the 1.1/1 ratio he had the last two seasons. If his groundball rate is up, I might try to buy low on him in all my leagues. If not, I will move on.

Relievers Qualified as Starters

These pitchers are not usable in most leagues. In leagues in which they are useable, they are extremely valuable. They are useable in leagues with daily transactions and roster designations between starters and relievers. The owner can remove a starter on an off day and then insert the reliever into the starting pitching slot to accumulate stats. It is a nice way to accumulate stats when a starter has an off day. Here are some of my top picks for 2016:

Alex Colome: Colome might end up the closer in Tampa Bay until Brad Boxberger returns. He can get saves for now and still be useful once Boxburger regains the closer job.

Trevor May: Besides Colome, May is the only one of these pitchers I could see getting saves this season. I am not totally sold on Glen Perkins and Kevin Jepsen as lock-down relievers for the Twins. Neither is May, but the Twins might try him at the role sometime during the season.

Travis Wood: I want to see how the move to the Cubs bullpen helps his velocity and performance.

Danny Duffy: Duffy could be another Royals lockdown reliever. I don't see him climbing the bullpen ladder for saves, but I could see him help a team with their ratios and a few strikeouts.

Starters Qualified as Relievers

Here is another group of pitchers who can be exploited in leagues that have weekly lineups, points-based scoring and a distinction between starter and reliever roster spots. In these leagues, owners can get more starts, which normally score more points than relievers over a week, by adding more starters.

The pool of pitchers to use in this format seems to be OK this season with no great standouts like Carlos Carrasco last year. The top choices are Vince Velasquez, Aaron Sanchez, Juan Nicasio, Shane Greene, Tanner Roark and Doug Fister.

Will the Nationals Steal More Bases with New Manager Dusty Baker?

Some fantasy baseball experts expect Bryce Harper to steal more under new manager Dusty Baker. This reasoning was used to sometimes push Harper over Mike Trout on draft day. I am not sure an increase is coming. The Nationals attempted 27 stolen bases in 2015 spring training and 35 this spring for a 30 percent increase. It was the ninth-largest increase in attempts, with the Mets seeing a 73 percent rise. I am not sold on the Nats running a bunch more and will monitor the team rate as the season goes on.

Keep Track of StatCast Data Studies

On Wednesday, MLB.com relaunched BaseballSavant with all its StatCast data. I think most people will find the data interesting, but will not know what to use. Don't look too hard into the data now. A lot of smart people will look at what's useful and what's not. For now, use your resources on your previous evaluation methods and when others have determined the relevant data, jump in. The best way to get StatCast updates is to follow Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) and Daren Willman (@darenw) on Twitter.