The Saber's Edge: Tout Wars Recap

I examined the league's previous tendencies and found three items I needed to address. The first was that the top players went on average 10 percent higher, except for Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw. They both went at cost. I came in with a plan to get both and then build the rest of my team around late values. If it didn't work, I'd move to my normal value picking approach.

I go into auctions with one rule: find as many values throughout the auction and don't overpay, if possible. I find this strategy works because it takes advantage of owners using the two most common auction approaches: stars-and-scrubs and spread-the-risk. While I can justify spreading the risk in extremely deep auctions like 12-team only leagues, value picking allows a patient owner to take advantage of the two approaches.

The value approach stays away from the early inflation, which brings down the surplus value of S&S, but still gets end-game values. Additionally, it picks at-cost or underpriced players available in the mid-game, which is the advantage of spread-the-risk. Value picking has two drawbacks an owner needs to recognize.

First, while the goal is to not go over your values, the owner needs to spend his money. Sometimes the inflation can be quite high for the 60 top players. The owner might need to jump up in a pay a little for one or two top players. Just don't overpay too much.

Also, on this point, if a top player has not gone, don't leave him out there hoping to get a great deal. Someone else probably has the same idea and both owners might end up in a bidding war with all value lost. The top player should be nominated as soon as possible to know if they will provide value or the owner needs to look elsewhere. The value approach works best if the top players are nominated first and then the next tier become values.

Additionally, it takes balls of steel to just sit there, be quiet and watch the rest of the table bid and take players. I have seen 30-plus players go before I even jump in to bid. Some auctions are started above my values. The key is to just wait and let the money leave the table. As I said, owners can't wait too long, but the prices will eventually drop. It can nearly drive a person insane going with the approach, but the values eventually come.

The second item I noticed from past auctions was that around $11, players transitioned from overpriced to underpriced. With two players sucking up possibly a third of my budget, I was going to live in this range. Additionally, the last three to five picks are normally dollar days with great values, especially for outfielders and pitchers. I priced in $1 for two outfielders and two pitchers. This allowed me to push some more money to better players.

Finally, I was going to have to pay crazy prices for a closer, but I wanted one of 14 reliable options. I expected prices to be 50 percent over my targeted prices, so I made the adjustment. Besides grabbing one reliable option, I wanted one or two other potential closers. I wasn't looking to win saves but punting the category would be too much makeup. I aim for a third-place finish in each category, which will easily give me the win at season's end.

That's it. I don't aim for certain players. If I like them more, I adjust my projections. I have a good idea of who I'll get comparing to other auctions. I find it is best to just take the deals handed to me.

One side effect of this approach is my team ends up boring with several 30-year-old players. There are no values with rookies and top stars. The steady contributors find their way to my team as other owners don't value them. For my valuations, I used the league's historic Pitcher/Hitter mix. For my projections, I averaged three sets, which continuously updated playing time. Besides bumping up a few dollars I won't allocate for the $1 endgame, I don't factor in any inflation. I want the dollars I spend to be a 1:1 correlation with the projected production. Here is my team.

During and after the auction, my team got zero love. Not one person tweeted out they like my team or approach except from Fake Team's Dave Morris Jr. He was tracking the auction and noticed the surplus value I was accumulating. He wrote about it the next day.

"the one where..." I really dive into @FredZinkieMLB@DerekVanRiper & @jeffwzimmerman 's teams & also predict final standings (big grouping) https://t.co/BL11c6xrZF

— The Jr Circuit (@dmojr) March 28, 2017

Additionally, I came across three other preseason projections. Using BaseballHQ projections, I ended up first. Using Davenport projections, first again. And finally using the projections from here at RotoWire, I ended up fifth. I'll take it. Here are the averaged combined rankings.

Besides feeling good about how my plan worked, the rankings tell me where I need to improve. On the hitting side, I need to pick up some home runs and on-base. As for the pitchers, I need to back off the starters with the high strikeouts and wins and get some more relievers with good rates. I already made such a move this week picking up Blake Treinen for more than a third of my FAAB. Three closers should keep me near the top of saves, and I can move them later for hitting, if needed.

I took advantage of top-end overspending to end up with a boring, good team. I am not having to make up ground. Instead, I will enjoy the initial head start and keep the accelerator down. With a little luck and with some strategic improvements, I expect to be in contention the entire season.