Top MLB Betting Picks for Opening Day March 25
Opening Day has arrived. The 2026 MLB season kicks into high gear on Thursday, with 11 games on tap.
That gives us plenty of betting markets to choose from. I've landed on two player prop picks, a moneyline prediction and a team total bet.
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Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles Best Bets and Predictions
Joe Ryan under 6.5 strikeouts (-123): DraftKings
Minnesota's ace comes in off his second 190-plus strikeout season while ranking in the 80th percentile in K%.
The Orioles have some thumpers with swing-and-miss tendencies that Ryan can surely exploit. But those power bats will be dangerous at home in a revamped lineup that looks powerful with Gunnar Henderson at the top. Baltimore is a great home run-hitting spot and Ryan has been susceptible to the long ball, with a HR/9 rate above league average in every season of his career.
The forecast calls for wind blowing out Camden Yards — the No. 2 home run park last season, per Baseball Savant — making this a potentially difficult pitching environment that cuts Ryan's outing short. Either way, we're probably not looking at a deep start from him.
Ryan was sidelined at the beginning of camp with a back issue and finished with a five-inning outing on March 21. He topped out at 68 pitches over his three spring starts, so he's unlikely to approach anything close to 100 pitches, especially with a fresh Twins bullpen that will have a day to recover with these teams off on Friday.Recent history gives us a decent idea of the workload we can expect from Ryan on Thursday. Over the last three years, he hasn't thrown more than 81 pitches in his first start of the season.
This is a big Opening Day line against a dangerous offense, making Ryan a worthy fade candidate on Thursday.
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Detroit Tigers @ San Diego Padres Best Bets and Predictions
Tigers moneyline (-130): FanDuel
Tarik Skubal, the back-to-back AL Cy Young winner, needs no introduction. He gets the nod on the road to kick off the Tigers' 2026 season after four spring appearances, topping out at 73 pitches, plus a three-inning outing for Team USA at the World Baseball Classic. The southpaw should be able to give Detroit plenty on Opening Day.
Detroit went 21-10 in Skubal's starts in each of the last two seasons, good for a .677 winning percentage. Runs will be hard to generate off Skubal, whose 2.30 ERA over those last two seasons is the best mark among qualified starters.
San Diego counters with Nick Pivetta, who's coming off a career-best year tossing his home starts at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Pivetta was sensational at home in 2025 and generates strikeouts at a well-above-average clip, but he's been walloped by home runs in the past and had an expected ERA a full run higher than his pristine 2.87 mark.
This game becomes more unpredictable once the bullpens take over, but this is an attractive price to back the AL Central favorites behind the best pitcher on the planet.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bets and Predictions
Zac Gallen under 4.5 strikeouts (-125): FanDuel
Always take spring starts with a grain of salt, but Gallen was obliterated in his final tuneup and didn't pitch well in his start before that. He finished his Cactus League with six strikeouts over 10.2 innings (four appearances). This comes after a 2025 season that saw his K rate plummet by more than 4% below his career average while he posted a 4.83 ERA, his highest mark in seven seasons.
Gallen's reward is a 2026 kickoff against the defending champs and last season's No. 2 offense, per wRC+, and they've since added four-time all-star Kyle Tucker.
This could turn ugly for Gallen and the Diamondbacks, who are the biggest underdogs of the day.
Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners Best Bets and Predictions
Mariners over 3.5 runs (-113): FanDuel
T-Mobile Park is a stingy offensive environment, ranking as the No. 1 pitching venue in baseball over the last three years. But Seattle did plenty of damage at home last season (108 wRC+, 104 homers — both top 10 marks in MLB) and has a potentially juicy matchup against the Guardians' No. 1 arm, Tanner Bibee.
If Gallen had a poor spring, then atrocious would be the best way to describe Bibee's. The right -hander allowed a combined 14 runs on 23 hits over his last two spring starts. There's plenty of noise in spring, but keep in mind that Bibee's strikeout rate dipped an alarming 5% last season. And most projection systems, including THE BAT X, don't expect Bibee's strikeout rate to improve to his pre-2025 numbers. Fewer strikeouts mean more balls in play, which creates more run-scoring opportunities.
Bibee has a deep repertoire, but his primary offering (four-seam fastball) was particularly clobbered last season. Seattle was a top 10 team at hitting fastballs, per FanGraphs.Following Bibee is a Guardians bullpen that FanGraphs ranks as middle-of-the-pack to begin the year.
MLB Picks Recap
- Joe Ryan under 6.5 strikeouts (-123): DraftKings
- Tigers moneyline (-130): FanDuel
- Zac Gallen under 4.5 strikeouts (-125): FanDuel
- Mariners over 3.5 runs (-113): FanDuel
