Top MLB Betting Picks for April 23: MLB Same-Game Parlays and Props
MLB 2026 betting record: 6-10, -4.9 units
Nine games are on tap for Thursday's MLB action.
I'm backing the slumping Philadelphia Phillies this afternoon and have three other MLB predictions to round out my best bets for April 23.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Best Bets and Predictions
Phillies Moneyline (-115 Caesars)
The New York Mets aren't the only mess in the NL East. Philadelphia (8-16) sports the same record, has dropped eight in a row and has the worst run differential in baseball. But I'm happy to back the Phillies at this price behind ace Cristopher Sanchez.
The left-hander should be good for length and will be hard to score on. Sanchez has gone six innings three times in five starts, allowing two earned runs or fewer in each of those outings.
He's top five in MLB in ERA (1.59), FIP (1.70), xFIP (2.21) and K/9 (12.39), pitching better than any starter in the National League.
The run suppression is extraordinary considering he has an MLB-high .413 BABIP. Opposing hitters are batting .278 off him, leading to an abnormally high 1.41 WHIP.
None of that is going to last, though. And with a career-best strikeout rate and only one home run allowed through five starts for the groundball machine, Sanchez is bound to put together some truly dominant performances.
The Cubs are playing good baseball, plating more than five runs per game and getting on base at an elite clip. I'd feel more comfortable backing the Phillies to end their skid in a more favourable matchup, but we would never get them to win at this price with Sanchez on the mound.
Philadelphia is 3-2 in Sanchez's starts and 5-14 in all other games.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Best Bets and Predictions
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+135 DraftKings)
Freeman will have to clear this against the Giants' ace and one of the top bullpens in baseball at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, but there are some things to like, including this plus-money price.
The Dodgers star is an extremely tough out at the moment. He has two-plus hits in five of his last seven games, hitting three doubles and a triple over that stretch. Freeman hasn't struck out in five straight and sports a career-low 10.3 K%.
While he hasn't gone deep since April 6, he's a home run threat with a history of punishing right-handers. That's been no different this year.
Freeman is hitting .308 and slugging .538 against RHPs. He's slugged at least .500 vs. righties in every season since 2019.
The first baseman, who has topped this line in 50% of his games, has a sizeable history against San Francisco's Logan Webb. And while pitcher-hitter matchups need to be taken with a grain of salt, the part I like most is the lack of strikeouts (eight) and walks (two) across 51 career plate appearances. That means most of their battles end with the ball put in play, which has led to 17 hits and a .347 average for Freeman.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers Best Bets and Predictions
- Bubba Chandler Over 4.5 strikeouts (-115 BetMGM)
- Under 8 total runs (-115 FanDuel)
Chandler's elite fastball velocity has not led to many strikeouts, but there's reason to believe that will come. The 23-year-old was a huge strikeout arm in the minors and had a respectable 25.0 K percent in his first taste of the big leagues last season. That mark is down to 20.0 percent through four starts, leading to a 1-3 record vs. this strikeout line.
He has the same spin rate on his fastball, per Baseball Savant, but his whiff rate on the pitch is down 8%, and his put-away rate is down nearly 20 percent.
Chandler has had some tough strikeout matchups outside of his first start (six Ks vs. the Cincinnati Reds), but is coming off his two longest outings of the season. Texas is a good spot for him to continue working deeper and get some strikeouts along the way.
The Rangers (league average 100 wRC+) have the third-highest K rate in MLB and are one of the worst fastball-hitting teams, per FanGraphs. Six consecutive starters have cleared this line vs. Texas.
With Jacob deGrom on the other side of the pitching matchup, I'm expecting a lower-scoring game. While he hasn't been pitching deep, deGrom has allowed two total runs over his last three starts and the strikeouts have been there. The under on this total has cashed in each of those outings.
The righty will be followed by a Rangers bullpen that has the third-lowest ERA in MLB. Pittsburgh's bullpen has thrown well, too, putting out fires with a top-five K%. Both groups rank in the top 10 in strand rate.
On top of all that, Globe Life Field has been among the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball over the last three years and has been the worst stadium for offense this year.
MLB Picks Recap
- Phillies Moneyline (-115 Caesars Sportsbook)
- Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+135 DraftKings)
- Bubba Chandler Over 4.5 strikeouts (-115 BetMGM)
- Pirates/Rangers Under 8 runs (-115 FanDuel)
