Top MLB Betting Picks for April 1
MLB 2026 betting record: 3-1, +1.45 units
There are only three games on today's MLB slate and the weather could significantly impact the first one.
The forecast factors into my top MLB predictions for April 2, as I'm hunting offense in the Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals matinee before closing out with one pick from each of tonight's games.
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Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals Best Bets and Predictions
Wind is expected to blow out at 20-plus mph, leading to a plus-hitting environment at Kauffman Stadium this afternoon.
I'm targeting young Royals outfielder Jac Caglianone who enjoys the platoon advantage today as he comes in off a three-hit game. The 23-year-old had an exit velocity of 100-plus mph on all three of his hits last night, according to Statcast, including an extra-base knock off a southpaw and a season-best 110.1 EV hit off Twins ace Joe Ryan.
One game doesn't mean much, but Caglianone has a top-prospect pedigree and at least one projection system (ZIPS) sees him as a 20-homer bat and above-average offensive player in his first full season. He has hit seventh in four straight games. That spot might short him a plate appearance but it still gives Caglianone a shot to hit behind some of the Royals' best bats on a day their offense should be humming.
Taj Bradley had an excellent first start for the Twins, but dicey control and past home run issues make him a risky play today. And Minnesota's bullpen is off to a rough start, allowing 16 runs in 18.1 innings of work with a sky-high walk rate. Meanwhile Kansas City has a comfortable pitching advantage with left-hander Cole Ragans going, but most books are pricing the club around -160 to win.
In a game where I expect Caglianone and others to produce offense, I'm electing to back the Royals another way at a better price, taking the over on their 4.5 team total.
Best Bets:
- Caglianone over 1.5 hits/runs/RBIs (+104 DraftKings)
- Royals over 4.5 runs (-125 DraftKings)
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Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bets and Predictions
I'll back the home side as a slight underdog at even money behind righty Ryne Nelson.
The Braves counter with starter Reynaldo Lopez, who doesn't provide them with much of a pitching advantage as far as I'm concerned. And while Atlanta's lineup gets the nod, both offenses present problems. Nelson was shaky in his season debut, but it came against the Dodgers. He limited them to two hits, but both left the yard and he walked three.
Throughout his young career, Nelson has had excellent control and done a great job avoiding the long ball. So that first outing is not something I'm going to get hung up on, especially coming against Los Angeles. And he pitched really well at his hitter-friendly home park last season.
Nelson had a strong spring, posting a 3.18 ERA with 23 strikeouts and two walks over 17 innings (five appearances). He has a great fastball with above-average velocity, giving him a good chance to take a step forward if that spring K rate is for real.
For today, I think Nelson does enough to help the Diamondbacks secure the win.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks moneyline (+100 FanDuel)
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New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants Best Bets and Predictions
Mets starter David Peterson racked up a slew of grounders in a no-decision over 5.1 innings to kick off his 2026 season. It was a good first start after a solid 2025, in which he posted a career-best FIP (3.48) and fWAR (3.1).
The Mets used five relievers in yesterday's extra-inning loss. By the time the weekend comes to a close, they will have played nine straight days. They could use some length tonight and Peterson is a good option to provide that. The lefty cleared this line in 18 of 30 starts last season and in 12 of 21 outings in 2024. That's good for a 59% success rate, giving us value at a -109 price at one of the game's top pitching venues.
Oracle Park is a tough park to go deep in and Peterson doesn't allow homers, posting the fourth-lowest HR/9 rate in MLB over the last two seasons (minimum 250 innings pitched). That gives confidence that one big swing won't burn him and cut short his outing. Plus San Francisco has an NL-worst 65 wRC+ through six games, plating an MLB-low 14 runs.
Best Bet: David Peterson over 16.5 outs (-109): BetRivers
MLB Picks Recap
- Jac Caglianone over 1.5 hits/runs/RBIs (+104): DraftKings
- Royals over 4.5 runs (-125): DraftKings
- Diamondbacks moneyline (+100): FanDuel
- David Peterson over 16.5 outs (-109): BetRivers
