Three Up, Three Down: Brewers, Cubs, Pirates

As we all know, prospect development is not linear. Players that look to be the next big thing will have down years only to bounce back a year — or more — later, and prospects that looked like organizational depth become potential stars only to face regression the next season. A prospect list is just a moment in time, and those players very rarely remain stagnant in their respective spot. 

This week, let's take a look at the prospects who saw their stock rise — and some whose stock fell — from the Brewers, Cubs and Pirates. 

Milwaukee Brewers

Three Up

Jacob Misiorowski, RHP: There may not have been a pitching prospect who saw his stock rise more than Misiorowski in 2023. The second-round pick was limited to only 71.1 innings of work, but they were impressive with a .169 average allowed and a 110:42 K:BB to go along with a 3.41 ERA while reaching Double-A Biloxi. 

Level of optimism: Moderate-to-high. Misiorowski offers two plus-plus pitches — a mid-to-high 90 mph fastball and wipeout slider — and shows them off regularly. He also has a solid curve and a cutter that flashes above-average, and he'll even show the makings of a usable change for good measure. There's no doubt that the 6-foot-7 right-hander has the stuff to be a frontline starter, but the command leaves a lot to be desired, and the effort in his delivery may play better in relief than as a starter. Still, with this kind of stuff, Misiorowski is a must-have in any dynasty or keeper format.

Tyler Black, INF: The 33rd pick of the 2021 draft out of Wright State in 2021, Black enjoyed a solid 2022 season with an .830 OPS in 2022, but he was even better in 2023 while slashing .284/.417/.513 slash while reaching Triple-A Nashville.

Level of optimism: High. I've been high on Black since his collegiate days, and nothing he's shown has changed my opinion since he joined the professional ranks. The left-handed hitter has a line-drive stroke that can hit the ball hard to all parts of the field, and while he doesn't have elite power (18 homers in 450 at-bats last year), he can turn on fastballs and put the ball into the gaps to let his plus speed (55 steals) do work. Black is also a solid defender who can play third or second, and it wouldn't surprise me if he was a regular for the Brew Crew by the end of 2024. 

Carlos Rodriguez, RHP: A sixth-round pick out of something called Florida SouthWestern State College in 2021, Rodriguez followed up a strong 2022 campaign with an even better one in 2023, with 25 of his 26 starts coming in Double-A Biloxi. He struck out 158 hitters against 57 walks over 128.1 frames, and he forged 2.88 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP. 

Level of optimism: Moderate-to-high. Rodriguez has three plus pitches at his disposal, starting (and sometimes finishing) with a lively fastball that can touch the mid 90s. His curve and change are his out pitches, however, with the change in particular impressing thanks to its late fade. He needs to improve his command, and none of the pitches profiles as 70 or better, but it's not hard to imagine Rodriguez being a mid-rotation arm who could make starts for Milwaukee at some point this season. 

Three Down

Hedbert Perez, OF: Perez looked like he was on his way to becoming one of the top outfield prospects in the sport at the end of 2021, but he hasn't had much success in the past two years. The outfielder played in just 63 games in 2023 with a .633 OPS and six homers over 232 at-bats. 

Level of concern: High. Perez is still only 20 years old, so there's plenty of time for him to figure things out. That said, there's an awful lot of stuff to figure out. He's struck out 259 times in 216 MiLB games, and his approach seems to be going backwards rather than making those necessary changes. The potential for plus power and speed are still there, but there's a very good chance he never reaches those heights. 

Eduardo Garcia, SS: Signed in 2018 for $1.1 million back in 2018, Garcia showed promise in 2021 and 2022, but not so much in 2023. The 21-year-old hit just .208 with a .606 OPS in 80 games with 10 stolen bases and four homers in 298 at-bats. 

Level of concern: Moderate-to-high. Contact has been Garcia's biggest issue as a professional, and he followed a 162:19 K:BB in 2022 with 106:26 in 2023 over 150 fewer at-bats. He also didn't show off the above-average power potential he did in previous campaigns, but he does remain a solid defender up the middle. Garcia is still young enough to not completely give up on, but it'd be hard to call 2023 anything but a disappointing development. 

Ethan Small, LHP: Small posted a very respectable 3.18 ERA over his 51 innings of work for Nashville, but he worked in relief with just 51 innings of work over 38 appearances and walked 24 batters in that timeframe. 

Level of concern: Moderate-to-high. Small also struck out 61 batters over those 51 frames, and he held hitters to a .212 average in that timeframe. He still has two plus pitches in his fastball and change, and his poor command doesn't matter as much as it would as a starter. Still, someone who once looked like a potential mid-rotation starter profile is now most likely an up-and-down arm, which certainly counts as stock down. 

Chicago Cubs

Three Up 

Cade Horton, RHP: After dominating for Oklahoma and helping the Sooners reach the finals of the College World Series, Horton was drafted with the seventh pick of the 2022 draft. There were some who were concerned about his lack of success prior to that tournament, but he was excellent in his first taste of professional action with a 2.65 ERA, 117:27 K:BB ratio and an even 1.00 WHIP in 88.1 innings over 21 starts. 

Level of optimism: High. If not for Paul Skenes, you could make an argument that Horton is the best pitching prospect in baseball. The right-hander has an elite slider that he can throw for strikes or bury to miss bats, and he complements it with a fastball that clocks as high as 98 mph with quality run. His curve and change are just average offerings, but they don't have to be much more than that — if at all — for him to be a quality starter. Horton has elite upside, and he has a high floor because of a four-pitch arsenal he can throw for strikes. 

Moises Ballesteros, C: Ballesteros got a $1.2 million bonus in 2021, and he's impressed in his short time in the organization. The backstop hit .285 with an .823 OPS over 117 games, and he was able to finish the season as a 20-year-old in Double-A Tennessee. 

Level of optimism: Moderate-to-high. Ballesteros is only 5-foot-7, but he nonetheless generates above-average power from his left-handed bat; or at least, he has the potential for it because of his lower half and loft. He can make contact to all parts of the field — often of the hard variety — and he has a strong approach at the plate with minimal swing-and-miss. The concern here is that he's a well below-average athlete who would be limited to first base if he can't catch, and he won't remind anyone of Pudge behind the plate. Still, if he can catch, Ballesteros has a chance to be an above-average regular someday. 

Michael Arias, RHP: Arias is a fascinating story, as he was signed by the Blue Jays as a shortstop back in 2018 before being released in 2020. The Cubs gave him a chance as a pitcher a year later, and the right-hander struck out 110 hitters over 22 starts with a 4.09 ERA at the Low-A and High-A levels. 

Level of optimism: Moderate-to-high. Arias's arm angle is going to give right-handed hitters in particular the feel-bads, and he generates a great deal of movement on a heater that gets up to 98 mph. It's impressive that he already shows a plus change, and his slider — while inconsistent — could be a third quality offering in time. It shouldn't surprise anyone that the 22-year-old's weakness is command, and he may be better suited for relief because of his control issues on top of being just 6-foot, 155-pounds. The upside here is palpable, however, and Arias offers intrigue either as a potential starter or high-leverage reliever. 

Three Down

Matt Mervis, 1B: Mervis was one of the most coveted fantasy prospects for the 2023 season after he homered 36 times and registered a .984 OPS while spending 57 games in Triple-A Iowa. He put up strong numbers at the minor-league level again in 2023 with a .282/.399/.533 slash, but he was overmatched in the majors with a .531 OPS over 90 at-bats upon promotion to the Cubs. 

Level of concern: Moderate. You don't wanna overreact to a sample of 27 games — exactly one-sixth of a season — as we've seen more than a few players struggle in much larger samples who then go on to have excellent careers. There's certainly quality power in his bat, and even while struggling he was able to show off a willingness to work counts and draw walks. The contact issues were problematic, and the fact Mervis has to hit to provide any kind of value as a first baseman is another, possibly larger, issue. There's absolutely a chance he develops into a middle-of-the-order hitter, but there's no denying that the floor is low. 

Caleb Kilian, RHP: Kilian was considered the top arm in the Chicago system after 2021, but his stock has dropped since, and took another step back in 2023. He made 25 appearances for Iowa in 2023 — including 24 starts — and registered a 4.56 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over his 120.1 innings on top of struggling in his limited action with the Cubs (16.88 ERA, 5:2 K:BB in 5.1 innings). 

Level of concern: Moderate-to-high. On top of those mediocre numbers — mediocre perhaps being kind — Kilian only struck out 95 hitters and allowed 17 homers. He can touch the high 90s with his fastball and shows a plus curve, but he wasn't able to miss bats on a consistent basis with either, and his command wasn't as good as his control. Kilian is now 26, and while it's feasible he becomes a backend starter even without missing many bats, the days of him being a potential mid-rotation arm or better appear to be gone. 

Jordan Nwogu, OF: The 88th pick out of Michigan in 2020, Nwogu was impressive in 2022 with an .855 OPS and 15 homers over 325 at-bats. The outfielder was anything but impressive in 2023, however, as he hit just .194/.273/.370 with 16 homers and 15 stolen bases over 97 games in Double-A Tennessee. 

Level of concern: Moderate-to-high. Nwogu is a quality athlete, and the 24-year-old shows the makings of 60-grade power and speed, which is always appealing. In order for that to matter, he's going to have to cut the strikeouts to a dull roar, and the 137 whiffs he picked up in 97 games for the Smokies in 2023 was untenable. There's no denying that Nwogu still has some upside, but that upside is paired with one of the lower floors in the Chicago system, at least among the organization's noteworthy prospects. 

Pittsburgh Pirates

Three Up

Anthony Solometo, LHP: Several pitchers saw their stock go up for the Pirates this year — including two more who we'll mention shortly — but for my money, the one who saw the biggest increase was Solomento. The 37th pick of the 2021 MLB Draft was able to register a 3.26 ERA in 110.1 innings of work at stops with High-A Greensboro and Double-A Altoona, and he whiffed 118 batters against 39 walks over those frames across 24 starts. 

Level of optimism: Moderate-to-high. Solomento's delivery is not picturesque, but he repeats it well enough to throw strikes with three pitches, and two of those pitches — his fastball and slider — have a chance to be plus. He's still got some projection left in his 6-foot-5 frame, but his fastball is still a potential out pitch even in the low-to-mid 90s because of its sink. Solomento has a high floor because of his command, but his stuff gives him a pretty substantial ceiling as well. 

Michael Kennedy, LHP: Pittsburgh gave Kennedy $1 million after selecting him with the 110th pick of the 2022 draft, and so far, he's proven to be well worth that investment. The southpaw made 13 appearances last year — including seven starts — and was able to post an impressive 2.12 ERA and 63:25 K:BB over 46.2 innings. 

Level of optimism: Moderate-to-high. Kennedy still has a long way to go, but he's made considerable progress in his short time in the Pittsburgh system. The 19-year-old should add more to a fastball that gets into the low 90s without much effort, and his slider is a plus pitch. Most impressively, Kennedy throws both those pitches and an average change for strikes — for the most part, anyway — and he repeats his delivery well enough to believe he'll have more than good enough command to start. Kennedy doesn't have Solomento's upside, but it's not far off. 

Thomas Harrington, RHP: Yep, another pitcher. Not the last one we'll talk about for PIttsburgh, either. Harrington made 26 starts at the Low-A and High-A level with a 3.53 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 146:41 K:BB ratio over 127.1 innings after being drafted 36th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft. 

Level of optimism: Moderate-to-high. Harrington has two plus secondary pitches in his slider and change, and while he doesn't have an elite fastball, there's still some projection left from a pitch that has been clocked up to 96 mph on a (fairly) consistent basis. He throws everything for strikes, and the only thing missing here is more consistency with the stuff. The only reason I go with moderate for Harrington is he's already 22 and hasn't pitched at the upper levels, but Harrington is a vastly underrated pitching prospect, regardless of system. 

Three Down 

Quinn Priester, RHP: Priester isn't technically a prospect anymore, but he's worth talking about because he's a former Top 50 prospect. The right-hander was shaky in 108 innings in Indianapolis with a 4.00 ERA and 116:47 K:BB, but he was considerably worse in his 50 innings with the Pirates, as seen in a 7.74 ERA and 36:27 K:BB over 10 appearance (eight starts). 

Level of concern: Moderate. It probably goes without saying, but it's very unlikely that Priester will reach the ceiling he showed back in 2021. That being said, that doesn't mean he can't be an effective hurler at the highest level. At his best he shows two 60-grade pitches in his fastball and curve, and he has two more off-speed offerings that flash average. Priester is still just 23 until the middle of September, so while there's some risk, his potential can't be dismissed just yet. 

Kyle Nicolas, RHP: Pittsburgh acquired Nicolas in the deal for Jacob Stallings, and his 2022 campaign saw the right-hander finish with a 3.97 ERA over 24 appearances and 90 innings for Double-A Altoona. His 2023 campaign didn't see the same levels of success with a 5.20 ERA over 98.2 innings at the minor-league level, and he gave up six runs in 5.1 innings in four appearances with the Pirates in a cup of coffee.

Level of concern: Moderate-to-high. Those numbers are bad, but the reason there's still some reason for optimism with Nicolas is he was still missing bats. He struck out 127 batters in just under 99 innings in the minors, and he fanned seven over 5.1 frames in the majors. The right-hander has two potential out pitches in his fastball and slider, but the command is well below-average as seen in 148 walks in 288.1 frames in the minors. If the command can improve he could be a high-leverage reliever, but there wasn't much evidence of it in 2023. 

Matt Fraizer, OF: Fraizer was outstanding in 2021 with a .306/.388/.552 slash along with 23 homers at the High-A and Double-A levels. He struggled to a .617 OPS with Altoona in 2022, however, and he wasn't much better in 2023, hitting .252/.326/.357 with eight homers and 21 stolen bases for the Curve over 437 at-bats. 

Level of concern: High. Fraizer is still a quality athlete who posts plus run times, and he's capable of playing all three outfield positions, albeit not to a dominant level. He just hasn't made nearly enough hard contact to suggest he can hit for average at the highest level, and the power hasn't been there either with just 14 homers over his last two campaigns. When you add in the fact he turns 26 next year, it seems very unlikely that Fraizer becomes anything more than organizational depth.