This article is part of our The Long Game series.
Heading into play Wednesday, the Nationals had the worst bullpen ERA in baseball at 8.24. The Cubs sat fourth worst at 6.92, and the Mets weren't far ahead at 6.37. The Braves (5.54), Brewers (5.40), Dodgers (5.01) and Phillies (4.63) – all expected to be playoff contenders this season – have also been trotting out relief corps that haven't provided much relief. Looking at more advanced metrics doesn't improve the picture, either. Of that group, only the Cubs sneak below a 4.00 xFIP at 3.94.
Meanwhile, Cleveland just lost Mike Clevinger for a month or two to back trouble, the kind of injury that could linger and affect his performance even after he's "healthy" again. The Yankees aren't getting Luis Severino back any time soon, and the Dodgers have three starting pitchers currently on the IL, although that's more feature than bug given how they assembled their roster. The Red Sox have the worst starter ERA in baseball at 8.78, and the Cubs and Brewers (again) also boast ugly numbers from their rotation.
With that kind of pitching carnage happening through the first couple of weeks of the season... how the heck are Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel still unsigned?
Veteran big-name free agents sitting at home without a team used to be a very rare occurrence in baseball, but suddenly it's becoming an epidemic as MLB front offices become overrun with anti-pacters (Sorry. Im sorry. Im trying to remove it). Those two All-Stars aren't even
Heading into play Wednesday, the Nationals had the worst bullpen ERA in baseball at 8.24. The Cubs sat fourth worst at 6.92, and the Mets weren't far ahead at 6.37. The Braves (5.54), Brewers (5.40), Dodgers (5.01) and Phillies (4.63) – all expected to be playoff contenders this season – have also been trotting out relief corps that haven't provided much relief. Looking at more advanced metrics doesn't improve the picture, either. Of that group, only the Cubs sneak below a 4.00 xFIP at 3.94.
Meanwhile, Cleveland just lost Mike Clevinger for a month or two to back trouble, the kind of injury that could linger and affect his performance even after he's "healthy" again. The Yankees aren't getting Luis Severino back any time soon, and the Dodgers have three starting pitchers currently on the IL, although that's more feature than bug given how they assembled their roster. The Red Sox have the worst starter ERA in baseball at 8.78, and the Cubs and Brewers (again) also boast ugly numbers from their rotation.
With that kind of pitching carnage happening through the first couple of weeks of the season... how the heck are Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel still unsigned?
Veteran big-name free agents sitting at home without a team used to be a very rare occurrence in baseball, but suddenly it's becoming an epidemic as MLB front offices become overrun with anti-pacters (Sorry. Im sorry. Im trying to remove it). Those two All-Stars aren't even an exhaustive list, either – players like Evan Gattis, who you'd think could have at least landed a minor-league deal somewhere, are also stuck on their couches.
The Dark Side of Market Forces
If you've got Keuchel or Kimbrel sitting on your bench and are starting to get antsy wondering when they'll get signed and by who, it might be helpful to look at the reasons why an MLB team ostensibly gunning for a World Series title might be willing to ignore such obvious fixes to their current issues. In the cases of those two once (and possibly future) stud hurlers, the biggest impediment to them getting signed might be the fact that they both rejected, qualifying offers.
For instance, the Nats desperately need bullpen help. Regardless of what Kimbrel's asking for – supposedly a three-year deal that would make him the highest-paid closer in baseball, although it's hard to imagine those rumors are coming from unbiased, disinterested parties – surely he's worth it as an upgrade on Trevor Rosenthal's Buzz Lightyear impression ("My ERA goes to infinity... and beyond!").
Ah. not so fast. First, they were one of two teams hit by the luxury tax in 2018, and if they do it two years in a row their bill increases. They'd pay 30 percent instead of 20 percent on the overage.
Second, they've already signed one player who got a QO in Patrick Corbin, which will cost them their second and fifth-highest picks in this summer's draft. Signing a second such free agent would then also cost them their third and sixth-highest picks, basically gutting the top of their draft.
Are those two picks, and the extra bucks out of ownership's pocket, worth losing precious games in the first half of the season? Washington's brain trust clearly thinks so, and while the Nats have the biggest disincentives to add another big free agent right now, any other top teams that could use Kimbrel or Keuchel also face draft-pick penalties for inking either one. Teams like the Braves, who were actually revenue-sharing recipients last year, would be least affected but would still have to lose something.
If those draft picks, rather than "exorbitant" demands by a pair of 31-year-old who should still have at least a few good years left in their arms, are truly what's stopping teams from signing them, then it's entirely possible both remain on the market until early June, when the draft has come and gone and there are no longer any picks left to lose.
2020 Foresight
If a former Cy Young winner and the greatest closer of his generation can't find work, chances are there are going to be more big-name players in the same boat next offseason. In this new environment, guys in their walk years carry additional risk in keeper and dynasty leagues, as they could easily find themselves in the same limbo next April that Keuchel and Kimbral are in now.
Here's some guys who could get trapped in the 2020 Phantom Zone:
Older pitchers: Cole Hamels and Rick Porcello are both making more than $20 million this season and will be on the wrong side of 30 this winter. Either one, or even both, could find themselves in the same boat as Keuchel, although Hamels will be 36 and will probably have to accept a one-year deal anyway, which might actually work in his favor. Porcello, on the other hand, fits the Keuchel profile almost perfectly. It seems likely he'll either have to settle for a lot less than his hypothetical market value, or be on the sidelines Opening Day.
Madison Bumgarner also turns 30 in August and will be an unrestricted free agent after the season. If he thought he'd get his big payday this time after taking a below-market deal in 2013, well...
Designated hitters: So far, big bats like Edwin Encarnacion and Nelson Cruz have been able to keep finding employers despite their lack of defensive value. That trend could be put to the test if a 32-year-old Khris Davis hits free agency for the first time and holds out hope for a big multi-year deal. A 33-year-old Jose Abreu may find the market softer than he'd like, too.
Slugging second basemen: Scooter Gennett will turn 30 just after Opening Day 2020 and, while he slugged 50 homers the last two years, he'll be coming off an injury-shortened campaign and has limited defensive versatility. Consider what Mike Moustakas had to settle for this past winter, and ask yourself if Gennett can expect any better.
Starlin Castro has a $16 million club option which the Marlins are about as likely to pick up as they are to hold a Mike Piazza Appreciation Day. As a soon-to-be 30-year-old on the open market, how much interest will he draw?
There are plenty of other players who could be impacted too. I didn't even start in on players with club options. I mean, the Cards wouldn't buy out Matt Carpenter's seemingly reasonable $18.5 million option... would they?
That's not to say these guys are all certain to remain unemployed well into the 2020 campaign. As with players like Moustakas or Brian Dozier this year, they may be willing to accept one-year deals for decent money and try their luck in 2021. Just be aware, if you're looking to add any of them to your keeper-league roster this season, their future value may not be quite as safe as it seems.
