This article is part of our The Long Game series.
Last year, I foolishly made preseason predictions as an exercise in thinking outside the box. I wasn't really expecting to get most, or even any, of them right necessarily. The point was to consider possibilities that were, perhaps, more plausible that Conventional Wisdom was crediting. Since I actually published them in 2018, I'm now stuck not only reviewing how I did, but doing a set of new ones for 2019, and flaunting my ignorance for all to see. Ugh.
Anyway, let's rip the band-aid off first before inflicting new wounds on my ego. I'll give three grades: PASS, if the prediction was more or less correct; MEH, if it got some things right and some wrong; and FAIL, if it was a total train wreck:
1. Neither NL wild-card team came out of the NL East. The Marlins were bad, but they weren't historically bad – three teams in the league lost at least 100 games, and they weren't any of them. FAIL
2. I was 0-for-3 in my NL Rookie of the Year predictions with Ryan McMahon, Scott Kingery and Jack Flaherty. Flaherty was the closest, finishing fifth. FAIL
3. Semi-fading Ronald Acuna would have been a terrible idea. FAIL
4. Ozzie Albies did hit 20 homers (24, to be precise), but he didn't hit .290 and he certainly didn't steal 40 bags. The jury is still out on whether he becomes the next Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor or Jose Altuve
Last year, I foolishly made preseason predictions as an exercise in thinking outside the box. I wasn't really expecting to get most, or even any, of them right necessarily. The point was to consider possibilities that were, perhaps, more plausible that Conventional Wisdom was crediting. Since I actually published them in 2018, I'm now stuck not only reviewing how I did, but doing a set of new ones for 2019, and flaunting my ignorance for all to see. Ugh.
Anyway, let's rip the band-aid off first before inflicting new wounds on my ego. I'll give three grades: PASS, if the prediction was more or less correct; MEH, if it got some things right and some wrong; and FAIL, if it was a total train wreck:
1. Neither NL wild-card team came out of the NL East. The Marlins were bad, but they weren't historically bad – three teams in the league lost at least 100 games, and they weren't any of them. FAIL
2. I was 0-for-3 in my NL Rookie of the Year predictions with Ryan McMahon, Scott Kingery and Jack Flaherty. Flaherty was the closest, finishing fifth. FAIL
3. Semi-fading Ronald Acuna would have been a terrible idea. FAIL
4. Ozzie Albies did hit 20 homers (24, to be precise), but he didn't hit .290 and he certainly didn't steal 40 bags. The jury is still out on whether he becomes the next Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor or Jose Altuve. MEH
5. I can't find a good monthly breakdown on homers at Chase Field, but while power numbers were down to begin the year due to the humidor, they stayed down and didn't seem to appreciably rise over the summer as the settings got tinkered with. FAIL In my defense, however, I will note that I was right to be skeptical of the 25-50 percent drop figure that was being bandied about last offseason.
6. Of the six NL Opening Day closers I listed who wouldn't lead their (then-current) team in saves, five actually did, although only two effectively held the job all season. Arodys Vizcaino and Corey Knebel topped their competition by a single save, while Brad Ziegler still somehow tied for the Marlins team lead with 10. FAIL
7. Caleb Smith was well on his way to being the Marlins' top fantasy pitcher before he got hurt. MEH
8. Matt Wieters, Travis d'Arnaud and Devin Mesoraco combined for 20 homers, forget about popping 20 each. FAIL
9. Tyler Glasnow didn't figure things out, and didn't finish the season as the Pirates' ace. He didn't even finish the season as a Pirate. FAIL
10. Yasiel Puig hit 23 homers, a mere 15 back of NL home run leader Nolan Arenado. FAIL
11. Six AL players, not only four, stole at least 30 bases. While I was right that Delino DeShields Jr. would not be one of them, Mallex Smith finished second with 40. MEH
12. Shohei Ohtani did win AL Rookie of the Year, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. stayed in the minors. My third pick, Niko Goodrum, didn't get a vote, but if you scooped him up early in the season he was surprisingly useful. I'll be nice to myself on this one. PASS
13. I was correct that a talented left-hander would enjoy a breakout season and win the AL Cy Young, I just picked the wrong talented left-hander in James Paxton. FAIL
14. Last year was not the right time to fade Nelson Cruz. FAIL
15. David Price had four more wins than Chris Sale, but 60 fewer strikeouts (in 18 more innings). I was generally correct that Sale would underperform and/or Price overperform, so while the specifics weren't exact, I'll give myself a win on this one. PASS
16. Of the five AL Opening Day closers I listed who wouldn't lead their (then-current) teams in saves, four actually did even though three of them got traded mid-season. FAIL
17. Somehow, my Miguel Sano as AL HR champ pick was even worse than my Puig as NL HR champ pick. FAIL
18. Derek Fisher... yeah. FAIL
19. Rougned Odor did have a miserable first half, and Jurickson Profar did experience a career resurgence, but Odor didn't outright lose his job. MEH
20. While the White Sox young staff didn't put together a late August run quite as stellar as I called for, Reynaldo Lopez, Lucas Giolito, Michael Kopech and Carlos Rodon did combine for the following stats between Aug. 24-27: 3-0, 2.10 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and a 19:8 K:BB in 25.2 innings. Kopech got his first, and so far only, big-league win before blowing out his elbow two starts later. PASS
If you're keeping score (please don't), that's 3-12-5.
Now for this year's cringeworthy offerings:
1. The Marlins will be historically bad, for realsies this time. The gap between them and the other four teams in the NL East is huge and getting wider, and pinning your rebuild hopes on Lewis Brinson seems like desperation. The Orioles won 47 games last year; Miami will check in below that.
2. The top three finishers in the NL Rookie of the Year race, in no particular order, will be Chris Paddack, Pete Alonso, and Cole Tucker.
3. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Victor Robles will have solid rookie campaigns as well, but neither will hit 20 homers or hit above .270 in their first full campaigns.
4. The year's surprise breakout in the Senior Circuit will come from Maikel Franco, who will not only solidify his hold on the third base job in Philly, he'll lead the team in homers.
5. The following Opening Day closers in the National League will not end up leading their current team in saves: Greg Holland, Arodys Vizcaino, Raisel Iglesias, Kenley Jansen, and Will Smith.
6. While Madison Bumgarner will stay healthy enough to be the Giants' most valuable pitcher, Drew Pomeranz will be just behind him in fantasy value at the end of the season.
7. Kris Bryant will lead the NL in homers with 41, just ahead of Trevor Story and Michael Conforto.
8. Three different rookie pitchers win at least 10 games for Atlanta, and Sean Newcomb is the first incumbent to get bumped aside for the youngsters.
9. Brandon Woodruff and Jimmy Nelson both win at least eight games with ERAs below 3.00 after the All-Star break.
10. Stephen Strasburg finishes the season with more wins and strikeouts than Max Scherzer.
11. Minnesota dethrones Cleveland in the AL Central, thanks to a league-leading bullpen ERA and Byron Buxton putting together a 25-25 season.
12. Neither Corey Kluber nor Trevor Bauer lead the Cleveland staff in fantasy value at the end of the year.
13: The top three finishers in the AL Rookie of the Year race, in no particular order, will be Vladito, Eloy Jimenez, and Joe Palumbo.
14. The following Opening Day closers in the American League will not end up leading their current team in saves: Mychal Givens, Matt Barnes, Roberto Osuna, Cody Allen, Hunter Strickland, and Jose Alvarado.
15. J.A. Happ is out of the Yankees' rotation by mid-May, while Domingo German leads the team in wins.
16. Shohei Ohtani hits 30 homers in his DH-only role.
17. Three different Orioles steal at least 25 bases.
18. Kevin Kiermaier plays at least 150 games and puts together a .280-20-20 campaign.
19. Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander finish 1-2 in AL Cy Young Award voting, the first time teammates will have done so since Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling for the Diamondbacks in 2002.
20. Gary Sanchez becomes the first catcher to lead his league in homers since Johnny Bench in 1972, and the first AL catcher in history to do it.
